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Thursday, January 16, 2020

The Dow took off to the upside today and gained 267 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving up.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal on Tuesday for a big move in the next two sessions and today confirms that.  I dumped my SPY January puts for a huge 95% loss.  Obviously they should have been sold yesterday at the latest.  My mistake there was also not putting in the stop loss order after being filled.  Not to mention that the trade idea was wrong from the beginning.  The negative RSI divergence signal is no longer on the daily chart.  I'm still a believer in the other sell signal that I received from a different indicator.  I'll be trying the SPY February puts at some point in the future.  The expiration week positive bias is strong this time around.  A run higher into the expiration wasn't out of the question and we're seeing that now take place.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold was slightly lower on the futures while the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm also going to try the GDX February calls again if we get back to the up trend line there.  It is currently at the 28 level.  If it breaks through the up trend line then the trade is off.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the big loss on the SPY put trade.  If that idea didn't work right away a loss was inevitable and I would simply try again in the February option cycle.  The question is from what point to start the trade.  There is no overhead resistance and the VIX remains oversold.  The oversold condition can last for a while and that is the case this time around.  I'll just have to keep an eye on things and be ready when the time is right.  Easier said than done.  I'll let Friday go by into the long holiday weekend and take it from there.  Asia was generally higher and Europe was mixed.  It seems that much of the money flow is into the US at this time.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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