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Thursday, January 23, 2020

It was a one day reversal back to the upside for some of the major stock indices but not the Dow as it lost 26 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market fared better than the Dow.  Concerns over the latest pandemic from China drove foreign markets lower and the Dow began the day with a gap to the downside.  We were off over 200 points during the session.  But as has been the case during this seemingly never ending rally, buyers came in and we clawed our way back.  Perhaps this will help to set me up next week to purchase the SPY February puts.  Nothing has changed despite the price fluctuation today.  Still overbought and in need of a correction.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold rose $4 on the futures and the US dollar was up on the session as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX February calls are losing premium but are still showing a profit.  I will hold them as long as the up trend line for GDX stays intact.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a spike up today but then turned around and closed below the 50 day moving average once again.  My guess is that stocks will rally here into the end of the month.  We'll have a couple more new all time highs for the S&P and probably for the Dow as well.  That will hopefully set things up for the February puts.  However we all know that the market will go where it wants.  We have though been overbought for quite some time.  Some of the sentiment indicators are showing rabid optimism.  Conditions such as these never end in a good way for the bulls.  It is the timing of the decline that is the ongoing dilemma.  I can't say what will trigger things to the downside but we'll know in due time.  Europe and Asia were down again last night on the Chinese virus fears.  Some overseas market will be closed tomorrow for the lunar new year.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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