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Thursday, January 02, 2020

The market took off to the upside to begin the new year as the Dow soared 330 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive but not as much as an up 300 market would indicate.  The summation index is now moving back up.  New all time highs again and we now have the chance for the negative RSI divergence to take place.  However with no overhead resistance the market may simply just keep going higher.  My SPY January put idea may be flawed.  I did place a couple orders for the SPY puts today but canceled them as the market moved higher.  I may or may not leave an open order for this idea overnight.  I do expect a decline here soon due to the signal that I received form a reliable indicator but it may not occur until the February option cycle.  We are still short term overbought for the S&P.  GE climbed 3/4 on heavy volume.  That's the highest it's been in over a year.  Gold was up $8 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX were mixed and seem to have stalled here.  Volume was light.  My GDX January calls are still in the black.  However the gold shares have not followed the metal higher here and that's a concern going forward.  We are also plenty short term overbought for both gold and the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX is headed back towards 12 and the short term indicators have a bit more room to go lower.  At this point I'm beginning to think that perhaps I should wait on purchasing the SPY puts until the February option cycle.  I'll ponder that tonight.  Everyone should be back at their desks on Monday if they haven't already returned.  Will we get another run up that day and will that be the ideal time to get short?  That's another question that needs to be answered.  For now it appears that the market has nowhere to go but up but we know that won't last forever.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the new year.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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