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Friday, January 17, 2020

Another day, another gain as the Dow added 50 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is grinding higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Overbought, staying that way and it appears that there's just no end to this rally.  Money simply continues to flow into stocks without any thought of a decline that lasts for more than a day or two at most.  Getting to the parabolic stage and that never ends well.  But to time the end is the ongoing question.  I do believe that the February SPY puts will at some point be the proper play.  I'm not sure when but I will be trying that trade at some point.  There is no overhead resistance though and the market is ignoring any bad news that might arise at this time.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU lost a point, while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was average.  Gold up and the gold shares down.  That isn't a positive but I will try the GDX February calls if GDX gets back to the 28 level which coincides with the recent up trend line for the gold shares.  We're about a half a point away.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Overall booked a loss this week and I'm not exactly pleased with that.  The game goes on though.  My trading tactics will be better in the future.  Going forward I've already put some things in place to make that happen.  My main mistake so far this month was really not locking in a solid profit when I had it.  Of course the SPY trade was a disaster but it was while since I'd traded that instrument.  Obviously I forgot how fast that thing moves and how tough it is to trade.  I'll try to remember those things going forward.  The VIX is down around 12 and remaining oversold.  Shorts have been squeezed again and again on the way up.  I guess we can look for a blow off top and consider the SPY puts after that.  The indicators just aren't working in this sustained upside environment.  The sell signal that I received from one of the indicators should take effect by the end of the month.  If that fails, I really don't know what to say.  Hasn't failed yet unless we don't see any downside in the February option cycle.  I am counting on it to work.  Plenty of charts to go over this weekend although most are simply overbought and continuing to rally.  Long holiday weekend for US traders, so enjoy the time off.  Europe and Asia were higher as money chases stocks around the world.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

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