Friday, January 10, 2020
The employment report came in a bit light and the Dow fell 133 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to trend sideways. I placed an order for the SPY January puts but it wasn't filled. I may try again on Monday if we get some upside then. The negative RSI divergence on the daily SPY chart is still there. It's still valid unless we see a substantial rally from here. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a big move in the next couple of sessions. I'm not sure todays move qualifies but it could. GE was off 1/4 on average volume. Gold bounced around $7 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX rose 3/8. Volume was lighter here. I'm still holding on to my GDX January calls for now. I should get rid of them early next week unless we get some kind of outside influence in the gold market. Think another US/Iran military escalation. The calls are still showing a slight profit so I may escape without a loss there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX almost made it down to 12 today. We are not yet completely oversold there but I'm willing to try the SPY puts next week if there's market strength on Monday. It may already be too late depending on what happens over the weekend. In my mind the sell signal is already there and at the least the February option cycle should be good for some more than usual downside. As usual the timing is the tricky part to get right. There will be plenty of economic data due out and it is options expiration week. What will the market focus on is the question that needs to be answered. Todays negative session did turn the short term technical indicators for the S&P lower. Plus we are overdue for a decline. But the market goes where it wants. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a strategy for next week. Asia was up and Europe slightly down to close out the trading week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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