Friday, January 24, 2020
They don't usually ring a bell at the top but I believe today they did as the Dow fell 170 points on good volume. The advance/declines were a little over 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving down. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, especially the S&P 500. The short term technical indicators have rolled over. We now have our cue to get the SPY February puts. It might already be too late but if we see some upside next week we might get a chance. The China virus going worldwide is the excuse for the sell off. But the technical indicators have been calling for some downside for quite a while. I think that today is just the beginning but I don't expect some kind of total collapse or bear market. However there should be enough of a decline to profit from the puts if you're up to the task. GE was off a few cents and the volume remains good. Staying above the 50 day moving average here for now. Gold found safe haven buyers, the futures rose $8. The US dollar found haven buyers as well and finished higher for the session again. The XAU climbed 1 7/8, while GDX added 1/2 on average volume. The technical indicators here still have room to go higher in the short term but this rally seems a bit tepid at best. My GDX calls are now solidly in the black. With 4 weeks still to go in the February option cycle, this trade can still go either way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher today and is now above its 50 day moving average. It made it as high as just shy of 16 today. The question is whether that's it for now or is this an initiation move to begin an extended decline? My guess is the latter but of course I could be wrong and often am. The S&P 500 didn't break its up trend line that has been in place since October. The NASDAQ is still far from it. However a couple of the other major stock indices have broken that line to the downside. Usually the NASDAQ leads the way down and the fact that it isn't now has to be taken into consideration. So there will be plenty to consider over the weekend when reviewing the charts. I do however favor a bearish outcome with what's about to happen here. Europe and what was open in Asia were generally higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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