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Wednesday, January 08, 2020

US and Iran tensions eased today so the Dow rallied 161 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was up 280 before a drop in the final half hour of trading.  This is a very volatile period for stocks to begin the new year.  Headline risk is at the forefront and positions can change overnight.  We are still short term overbought for the S&P 500.  Perhaps today was the time to try the SPY January puts but I certainly didn't have the guts to give it a try.  Perhaps in the next couple of days.  GE was off 1/8 but the volume was light.  Gold had a one day downside reversal after trading above $1600, the futures closed $40 lower and off around $15 for the day.  The US dollar was higher.  The gold shares got crushed as traders exited their long positions.  The XAU lost 4 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/8.  Volume was heavy.  The short term indicators have now rolled over here.  My GDX January calls lost most of their profit today but are still somehow in the black.  As long as gold holds above the breakout of $1550, this trade will have a chance at being profitable.  If that level doesn't hold then the trade will most likely turn into a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The technical indicators on the VIX remain mid-range despite the price movement on the S&P today.  So things still could go either way here.  The VIX does remain above its 50 day moving average.  The negative RSI indicator divergence is still in place for the S&P 500.  We've got the jobs report due on Friday but in this current market environment it may not matter unless there's a huge surprise.  Seven days left in the January option cycle.  Asia lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what kind of headlines we get tonight and take it from there.

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