New troubles for the market as it now frets over a couple of California banks going under. The Dow fell 345 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The headline number for the jobs report was higher than expected but the underlying statistics were not as robust as predicted. An early sell off was met with a rally attempt. However that failed as the FDIC came in to take over in the California bank debacle. Obviously the fear is that there are more failures to come. Heavy selling to the downside is not a positive sign unless it is the final flush. Not sure that's what occured today. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. It is now firmly below its 200 day moving average. The next area of support comes in at 3800. Gold rallied on fear today as the futures rose over $35. The US dollar was lower and interest rate yields plummeted. The gold shares initially jumped but then were sold off with the overall market. The XAU managed a gain of a point, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was heavy. The positive RSI divergence is still in place on the charts and would have been fulfilled today if the gold shares had managed to hold onto their gains. I do still have the GDX March call losing trade alive although I should have sold them this morning. Normally they would be worthless by now since they are far out of the money but the increase in volatility has given them life. Probably will hold on until Tuesdays inflation report at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped again today and closed above its 200 day moving average. However it did finish well off of the highs for the session. The short term indicators have moved up but are not yet completely overbought. Plenty of fear and uncertainty out there at the moment. Margin calls ongoing to be sure. The weekly indicators for the S&P have plenty of room to move lower, so I'm not sure how far down we have to go. Option expiration week on tap as well. We'll go over the charts as usual this weekend and keep an eye on any new news developments too. Perhaps we'll look for a chance to play an oversold bounce in the S&P next week. Or not. We've still got the losing GDX call trade to book. Europe and Asia sold off into the weekend as the world markets try to figure out exactly what is going on. Basically it appears that a couple of banks made some losing bets and now have to face the music. The game treats all alike. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market got clobbered ahead of tomorrows employment report as the Dow fell 543 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that is not a good sign for the bulls. It is as if the market knows ahead of time that the jobs numbers will not be favorable. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled back into oversold territory. The S&P is trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average. Stock markets have the feel of wanting to keep going lower here. The negative candlestick pattern on the S&P daily chart seems to be playing itself out. The lower summation index is telling the story. But we'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold rallied a bit as the futures rose around $15. That couldn't get the gold shares going as both the XAU and GDX had fractional losses again. Volume was average. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The potential positive RSI divergence for the gold shares is still in place. So is my losing GDX March call trade. Probably dump it tomorrow unless we see some extraordinary upside in GDX. The gold shares followed the market lower today despite the rise in gold itself. I should have been out of this idea long ago. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX jumped today and closed above 20. The short term technical indicators here have turned up with a vengeance. Not sure what it means but volatility has returned for now. There is no good reason to be holding calls right now but here I am. Europe and Asia were mostly lower again last night and I'd expect more of the same to finish the week. We'll get the market reaction to the jobs report and close out the trading week tomorrow.

More Fedspeak but less market reaction as the Dow fell 58 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving lower. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. We didn't see any downside follow through from yesterdays debacle in the overall market and that's a plus. But we still have to at least get through Fridays jobs report. Whether or not we sell off here in a meaningful way will be determined on Friday is my guess. We'll simply wait and see. Gold was off a buck or so on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. One of the GDX hourly charts that I use along with the daily chart of GDX are both showing a potential positive divergence on the RSI indicator. That is the only reason that I'm still holding on to the losing GDX March call trade. Now GDX could move lower and negate that signal. Or we'll see the gold shares move higher in the near term and perhaps I can cut the loss for this trade to not be a complete wipe out. We'll know by Friday morning one way or the other. The trade is already dead in my mind so a couple of more days won't affect things that much. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. My thinking is tha tomorrow will be a waiting game for stocks with most likely a downside bias. We'll see. Europe and Asia finished mixed. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Hawkish Fed comments sent the Dow reeling today as it lost 575 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving lower. The Dow led the way down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over or are about to. The daily candlestick chart here shows a bearish pattern which indicates yet lower values to come. We'll get more talk from the Fed chairman tomorrow before Fridays jobs report. It appears that the short term rally that we just saw is over. Gold got crushed today as well as the futures lost $35. The US dollar soared while short term rates went up and the longer term ones held steady. The XAU fell over 5 points and GDX lost almost 1 1/4. Volume was heavy. The short term indicators here have rolled over as well. My GDX March calls lost most of their value as I have held this trade for too long. Another mistake that could have and should have been avoided. The fundamental backdrop for gold is negative and I have no business trying the calls in that atmosphere. Yet I tried them anyway and even had a small profit at one point. We did see an oversold bounce for gold and the gold shares. That was my cue to exit the trade and I didn't. Mistakes are costly in the game and I just made another one. I'll sell and move on but the mental capital is always more important than the monetary capital. Two losing trades to start the new year is not where you want to be. Mentally I'm feeling negative as the GDX trade has blown up in my face. There's nobody to blame except myself. The highs are high and the lows are low in the trading game. The VIX was up today but remains short term oversold. It did manage to to stay below the 20 level. There's plenty of room to move up on the short term indicators. If that occurs we'll see quite a drop in the stock market. Hasn't happened yet and the VIX is still below its 50 day moving average so it's possible that today was just a one day decline. But a lot of the technical evidence is against that scenario. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. My guess is that we'll see selling around the globe tonight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was an up and then back down session as the Dow managed a gain of 40 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving lower. It was a mixed market with the NASDAQ showing a small loss. It seems like we're just waiting on the Fed comments tomorrow and Wednesday. I doubt that they'll be bullish, so I'd expect some type of pause or pullback before we get Fridays employment numbers. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range so we could go either way here. If we do get a pullback my hope is that it doesn't turn into a rout. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 2 1/8, while GDX shed over 1/2. Volume was pretty light. Gold barely moved lower but the gold shares got sold. That is not a positive. My GDX March calls went from showing a profit to showing a loss. Once again this appears to be another mismanaged trade that should have been sold on Friday. Last week gold was moving and the gold shares weren't keeping pace. What more do you need to see really? Sure there's a chance that this trade will work out but it will now have to be held longer than the original thinking. Not sure that will be a good idea either. Less than 2 weeks to go before the March option expiration. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and is short term oversold. I would not be surprised to see the VIX higher tomorrow and stocks lower. Asia and Europe were genrally higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Stocks took off to the upside today as the Dow gained 387 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but may be trying to turn around here. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 was up sharply and is now above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have turned back up and have plenty of room to move higher. It appears that we have started some type of rally here but we'll have to see just how long it lasts and how far it goes. We will know for sure once the summation index turns back up. Hasn't happened yet but it does have a chance after the past two positive sessions. Gold rallied as well with the futures up twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower and so were interest rates. The XAU was up almost 2 points, while GDX added nearly 1/2. Volume was light here though as it looks more like sellers have disappeared vs. buyers showing up in force. We would have liked to see better gains in the gold shares considering the move in gold itself. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up and still have room to go. My GDX March calls are showing a small profit. The recent rise for GDX hasn't exactly been robust so I'm not exactly sure how much I trust in prices for the gold shares moving much higher from here in the near term. I'll have to decide what to do with this trade over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that goes along with a good day for stocks. The short term indicators here are getting oversold but not completely so. It was a good week for the bulls. Next week we've got the Fed chairman speaking for a couple of days plus the employment report. So we'll have to see if this upswing can continue. We'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend to try and figure out what to do next. Europe and Asia were higher as well to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow led the way higher today as it was up 341 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues lower. It was a one day reversal to the upside for stocks as we opened lower and finished higher. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. It did hold its 200 day moving average today. Still feels like a waiting game here. Gold was off $3 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX basically finished flat on the session. The volume was very light. The short term indicators for the gold shares have turned back up. For some reason I'm still holding on to the GDX March calls. They are showing a very small profit. Not sure what I'll do with them from here. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and that fits the turnaround that we saw in stocks today. It closed below its 50 day moving average and the important 20 level. It does imply higher stock prices going forward but we'll have to see about that. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see if the market has any upside follow through as we close out the trading week tomorrow.

Another day of indecision as the Dow was up 5 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was negative with the NASDAQ leading the way. The major stock indices remain short term oversold. The S&P 500 is trying to hold in at its 200 day moving average. However it has broken the longer term up trend line from October and can't seem to get any upside momentum. Short term oversold and staying that way is not a positive. Not sure where we go from here. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates higher. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 5/8. Volume was heavy to the upside which is a new development here. The short term indicators for GDX are now sloping upwards. My GDX March calls are somehow showing a small profit. I don't know why I'm still holding on to them but greed comes to mind. The strong volume today is a plus and I may be holding on to this trade for longer than I thought. But we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today which doesn't match with an overall lower market. The short term indicators are still mid-range here. Stocks have been moving sideways with a lower bias for the past week or so. Remaining short term oversold and I certainly don't have a good idea where we go next. I'm encouraged by the move higher in the gold shares today but that doesn't mean things can't simply turn around tomorrow. The game is never easy. Asia was higher and Europe generally lower last night. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Lower in a quiet session as the Dow fell 232 points on end of the month heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues to travel down. The Dow was the relative under performer today. Stocks remain under pressure as there are no reasons to be bullish at the moment. The S&P 500 was lower and is still short term oversold. It closed at the low of the day. Not sure when things will turn around. February ended with a thud. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up almost a point while GDX added about 1/4. Volume continued light on this near term bounce for the gold shares. It is a very waek bounce to be sure. My GDX March calls are still losers and I probably should have just taken the loss today. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up but without any type of conviction. I probably should be out of this trade this week because the calls I own are pretty far out of the money. Poor entry timing on my part. However the longer term buy signal that we got is finally starting to work but in a muted form. I suppose that is a byproduct of the lousy fundamental background here for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't fit a down market. The short term indicators here are mid-range and now look like they want to turn back up. That would be bearish for stocks if it occurs. Perhaps we'll get some buyers for the start of March tomorrow or just more of the same selling. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

An uneven start to the new week as the Dow rose 72 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues down. We had a gap higher to start the day and spent the rest of the session drifting off. The NASDAQ was the leader moving higher today but the lack of volume is a concern. Not to mention that weak Monday rallies are not the most convincing. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and I wouldn't be surprised if we were lower tomorrow. I would be surprised if we somehow build on todays slight gains. End of the month tomorrow but I'm not sure what effect that will have on things. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved slightly down. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on pretty light volume. The gold shares remain short term oversold. If this is the bounce we were looking for it can be descibed as anemic. There are no compelling reasons to be buying gold right now. My GDX March calls are still losers. Still hoping for a better bounce but hope is not a trading stategy. Will be looking to take the loss this week unless something out of the ordinary happens. Don't count on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains above the 20 level and above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are pointing down and are at mid-range. That would imply a lower VIX and higher stock prices going forward. However whatever I have thought about the VIX has been wrong lately so we'll just have to wait and see where it goes from here. Not a lot of economic reports due out this week. I suppose that we'll see if we get any of the beginning of the month positive money flows. Asia lower and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Inflation data came in hot and the market sold off. The Dow fell 337 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ was the leader on the way down again. The was a gap lower on the S&P at the open and then it traded sideways from there. The short term indicators on the S&P are oversold and staying that way. It appears that lower prices are in its future. The S&P 500 also closed below the 3975 up trend line but just barely. Things will probably just get worse from here. Gold was off $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell a point and GDX lost 1/3. Volume was average. My GDX March calls are now solid losers. The only reason that I'm still holding them is that they do have 3 weeks to go. The gold shares have remained short term oversold on some of the indicators for 3 weeks. This is not what usually happens. Our other signal that has only showed up 4 times in the last 3 years has even moved lower and is even more oversold. So although we expect some kind of upside for the gold shares here it will most likely not be an extended rally. The bounce is long overdue but markets can stay overbought or oversold longer than you can stay solvent sometimes. Obviously this was a trade that should have been avoided. The entry timing was off and the gold shares have absolutely no interest at the moment from traders or investors. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but finished off from its best levels. Not sure where the VIX goes from here. Haven't had a good handle on what is going on here with the VIX for a while. We'll go over the charts this weekend as usual but the plan for now is to still hold the GDX call trade until we see some kind of bounce. Hoping at this point to cut the loss to something reasonable but perhaps should have bailed out today and simply moved on. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Stocks managed to move higher today as the Dow gained 108 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. We opened with a gap to the upside, then dropped to fresh new lows only to come back for the rest of the day and end in the plus. The NASDAQ led the way. The S&P 500 managed to hold the 3975 level for now. Tomorrow should tell us a lot. If we manage to build on todays gains the market might have a chance to hold in here. However if the inflation data comes in hot and we fall, then we'll most likely be in a prolonged decline. The market is short term oversold but today could have been the expected bounce. So we'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there. Gold lost $11 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates were mildly lower. The XAU dropped 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/8. Volume was light. GDX remaining oversold here and not even getting a bounce is worrisome for my GDX March call trade. It is now showing a loss. GDX doesn't even have a hint of short covering or wanting to move higher despite the extremely oversold condition. Not sure what to make of it but it isn't the usual activity that we would expect. We'll see what transpires tomorrow but this trade could just blow up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and back within the Bollinger bands. Its short term indicators have now rolled over. However that doesn't give us the all clear signal as the VIX remains above the 20 level and above its 50 day moving average. Asia was lower and Europe higher with the exception of the FTSE overnight. We'll see how the markets respond to tomorrows inflation data.

We saw continued selling today but not as drastic as on Tuesday. The Dow fell 84 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving down. Kind of a mixed bag as the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The S&P 500 is trying to stay above the longer term up trend line that began in October and its 50 day moving average. I'm not sure if it will be successful. Short term oversold here now so I would be looking for at least some kind of bounce but maybe not the beginning of a sustained move higher. We've got more inflation data due out on Friday and that will probably tell the story for where we are going. The tone of the market is negative at the moment. Gold dropped $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU lost 2 1/4, while GDX was off 2/3. Volume was average. My open order for the GDX March calls was filled. They closed about where I purchased them. One of our longer term indicators for GDX is at a level that has produced a bounce or at least sideways movement when it has gotten as far oversold as it stands now. That is the primary basis for this trade. It should be a short term trade from here. NEM reports earnings tomorrow and that will influence GDX. I can't say I'm overly confident that this trade will work because the medium term indicators for GDX are not yet completely oversold. We'll see where it goes from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit a down market. The short term indicators for the VIX have stalled and are trying to roll over. Still above the 20 level here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Europe and Asia were lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

The market got clobbered today coming in off of a long weekend. The Dow fell 697 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down and we'll take our cues from there. The summation index was moving down when the S&P was trending sideways and in retrospect that was a clue. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a plus for the bears. The S&P 500 is short term oversold but some of the indicators have room to move lower. The up trend line that began last October is still intact there but now is in jeopardy. It comes in around 3975. Another day like today will take it out and then we'd see some real selling. Not sure if that will happen or not but my take on things lately has been wrong. Also not sure what would turn things positive in the near term so it may be a case of look out below. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed about 1/3. Volume was light. I did place an order overnight for the GDX March calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it open. I can't say that this is the best idea at the moment but one of the longer term indicators for GDX is almost at the point where we see a bounce or at least stop moving down. It has given 4 signals in the past 3 years and 75% of them saw a bounce. The other time the gold shares just moved sideways. We'll see if it gets filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher and is now above its upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators here are getting overbought but not completely just yet. Another day like today would do it. I'm not sure what to expect here. I suppose the question for tomorrow will be, will we see any buyers if the S&P hits that up trend line? Or will that just bring in more sellers as the rally that began last year is declared dead. The NYA has already broken that line. Always plenty of questions in this game. Europe and Asia were both lower to start the trading week. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

More selling in the broader market today but the Dow did manage a gain of 129 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. The overall market was weaker than the Dow again with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The S&P 500 was down as well. The short term indicators here are pointing down and about at mid-range. The S&P did come up from the lows of the session but that may have been option expiration related. As we suspected there is no reason to get long in front of the long holiday weekend. Gold finished flat on the futures. The US dollar finished flat as well but interest rates ticked down to close the week. The XAU lost 1 2/3, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average. The gold shares came up from the lows of the session as well. Getting close to the 200 day moving average for GDX and the XAU bounced off of that level today. GDX remains short term oversold and staying there. Some indicators for GDX are at or approaching levels where we have at least seen a bounce before. However the fundamentals for gold remain negative at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with the overall market lower. Not sure what's going on here. The short term indicators are mid-range. I don't have a good feel for this indicator right now. Plenty of work to do over the long weekend as we will try and come up with a game plan going forward. It will be a short trading week coming up. We booked our first trade for the year this week and it was negative. Putting that in the rear view mirror and moving on. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers took the upper hand today as the Dow fell 431 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way down. My thesis of higher prices this week did not pan out. My ideas have been wrong lately and I will have to turn that around. My take on the technical indicators is off so we'll remain on the sidelines for now. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now turned back down and are mid-range. So far all in all it has been a sideways week for the S&P. Not the usual price action for options expiration week. I'm not sure what's in store next for the stock market. Gold finished up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. They did come up from the lows of the session. GDX remains short term oversold which normally we'd be looking to get some GDX calls here. However after already failing with this idea via this weeks losing trade, we're remaining on the sidelines for now here too. There is a short term down trend line now in place on the daily chart for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up today and closed above the 20 level. The short term indicators here have either turned back up or are now moving sideways. Not sure what this means going forward. A holiday weekend is upon us after we get through expiration Friday tomorrow. Not sure what to expect but can't anticipate much buying before a long weekend with the way this week has gone so far. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Onca again the data came in stronger than expected and we had an early morning sell off. Then just like yesterday the market spent the rest of the session making it back up. The Dow rose 38 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The overall market was gain stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. As long as the small stcoks are in the lead I think that we are in store for higher prices. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving sideways but trying to turn back up. We'll get some more inflation data tomorrow and that should get us going one way or the other once again. Only 2 days left in the February option cycle and ahead of a holiday weekend coming up. Gold lost $18 on the futures and closed below support at $1850. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were up slightly. The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX lost 7/8. Volume was average. The gold shares gapped down at the open and wiped out my GDX February calls. It was a 99% loss as this trade never got going the way we expected. GDX remains short term oversold and never got out of that condition as we thouhgt it would. Not a lot of money involved in this trade but starting the year with a loss is always disappointing. But you've got to move on. We will keep an eye on the gold shares but not expecting another trade there soon. Oversold and staying there is not positive. Mentally I'm feeling a bit down with a losing trade on the books. The short term trades can be big winners or big losers and we were on the losing side this time around. The VIX continued lower and that fits an up market. The short term indicators are heading lower and have more room to go down. I'm expecting higher stock prices into the close on Friday but we'll have to see the reaction to tomorrows inflation numbers. Asia was down and Europe up overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

It turned out to be a mixed bag on inflation day as the Dow fell 156 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving down. Consumer prices came in a bit hotter than expected. The market sold off, came back with a rally and then sold off again only to rally the rest of the session until the final five minutes. It was really a back and forth type of day. Considering the data and potential for a sell off, the market held up pretty good today. The NASDAQ posted a gain and that is a surprise given the backdrop. The breadth wasn't as bad as it could have been either. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still trying to make their mind up on which way to go. We'll get retail sales data tomorrow and we'll have to see what the market does with that. Things could still go either way here. Gold somehow was up a couple bucks on the futures after bouncing back and forth. The US dollar finished slightly lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. My GDX February calls are now losers with only 3 days to go in this months option cycle. GDX remains short term oversold and staying that way, which isn't helping my cause. We would need to see some type of rally from here for this trade to get back to break even. Not sure that is going to happen as interest in gold has waned. Will have to think about just taking the loss tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below the 20 level. The short term indicators here have turned back down. We got the drop in the VIX we were looking for but not the rise in stock prices to go along. Not sure what that means going forward. Running out of time in Februarys option cycle and decisions must be made. I suppose we'll see how things open tomorrow and go from there. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trading. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Higher prices to begin option expiration week as the Dow rallied 376 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down but another day like today would change that. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Not sure why we moved up so much in front of tomorrows CPI report but perhaps the market knows something we don't. Of course the light volume is troublesome. Short covering probably played a role today as well. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up. If that happens the rally will have legs. Of course it could all change tomorrow with a higher surprise from the consumer price numbers. All we can do now is wait. Gold dropped over $10 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was off over 3/4, while GDX had a slight fractional mover lower. Volume was pretty light here but the gold shares held up rather well considering the metal lost ground today. Things should get moving on the CPI report tomorrow. My GDX February calls are still about at where I purchased them. 4 days to go for this trade and Tuesday will most likely be the key as to whether or not this trade succeeds. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today and is still above the 20 level. The short term indicators here moved sideways today. The VIX did close below its 50 day moving average. I'm not getting a good feel for what will happen next for the VIX. My guess would be that it heads lower and stocks head higher. But I certainly don't know. All in all the thing to look for is the market reaction to tomorrows numbers. Asia was lower with the exception of China and Europe was up. We'll see what the market has in store for us tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow did manage a gain of 169 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues down. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a loss. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have stalled their downside movement at a mid-range level. They could go either way from here. It seems as though the market is on hold in front of Tuesdays inflation numbers which no doubt will get things moving one way or the other. Not sure what to expect there. No SPY trades for the time being. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. I did place another order for the GDX February calls and it was filled. So the first trade of the year is on. The entry looks to be OK depending on where we go from here. GDX remains short term oversold. I'll probably hold this trade into the inflation report and go from there. We'll also get retail sales data on Wednesday of next week. Mentally I'm feeling better and recovery is going well so far. The VIX spiked up during the session but ended up closing lower on the day. It is still above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are mixed but more overbought than oversold. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX has what looks like an evening star which would imply lower VIX readings going forward. That would be a plus for stocks. However the VIX did penetrate its upper Bollinger band. We'll see what that means going forward. Option expiration week coming up and we'll also see if it has the usual positive bias. But we'll be keeping a closer eye on gold and the gold shares as that is where our money is on the line at the moment. Plenty of work to do over the weekend with the charts and indicators. Europe and Asia were generally lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 249 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way down but we did see a little buying in the final half hour. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and have plenty of room to go lower. I am not sure why things have gotten weaker here. The short term up trend lines for the NASDAQ and the S&P remain intact but another day like today will violate them. IWM has already broken that short term line. Perhaps the rally that began in the beginning of the year has run its course for now. We'll know more after tomorrows price action. Gold fell $17 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU dropped 2 1/2, while GDX lost 5/8. Volume was average. I did place an open order this morning for the GDX February calls but it wasn't filled. GDX remains short term oversold and has now closed below its 50 day moving average. There's only six days left in the February option cycle so any trade now carries a lot of risk. I will reconsider placing the order again overnight. Mentally I'm still in recovery mode from the recent illness but feel like I'm almost all the way back. The VIX was up today and closed above the important 20 level. It has stopped right at the 50 day moving average. The 50 day has contained the VIX since the rally that began in October. So it is important for the bulls that the VIX to turn back down here or we will have to adjust our thinking. It is not quite yet short term overbought but could get there tomorrow with a repeat of today. So we are at an important market juncture in my view. Europe was higher and Asia too for the most part. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Sellers took charge today as the Dow fell 207 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. We spent the session in negative territory. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Up trend lines remain intact for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The S&P is still short term overbought on the indicators. We're remaining on the sidelines for now with regards to trading the SPY. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures again. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU was off a buck and GDX shed 1/4. Volume was very light here. GDX is now short term oversold and holding above its 50 day moving average. This would seem to be the logical spot to try the GDX February calls. We'll consider it tonight. Mentally doing OK, not 100%. Trying to get back to normal but it takes time. The VIX was up today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators are heading higher and are at mid-range. The VIX remains below the 20 level and below its 50 day moving average which are good signs for the stock bulls. Still waiting on a big move here as the Bollinger bands converge. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Volatility returned for a day as the Fed speak created some market gyrations. However when it was all said and done the Dow climbed 265 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. A hawkish Chairman Powell sent stocks into a swoon mid day but buyers again appeared and drove prices higher for the rest of the session. Once again the NASDAQ led the way up just like it led the way down last year. But it's this year and as long as the over the counter issues are in the lead going higher there is plenty of liquidity for now. The S&P 500 had a good day and it appears that the next stop is 4200. It does remain short term overbought but that's not an issue during rallies. There seems to be plenty of bears around and that is a plus for the bullish cause. Not to mention that today the market shrugged off Powells remarks and zoomed higher. Again, it's the opposite of last year. Declines can be purchased for now. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 3/8. Volume was average. GDX is still holding at its 50 day moving average. We may consider the February calls there if they get cheaper. Mentally feeling OK but still on medication for now. No rush to trade as health is certainly more important. The VIX was lower, remains below 20 and the short term indicators are turning back down. It seems to continue to say that higher stock prices are coming. The Bollinger bands here are converging which implies that a big move is in the near future. Could it be a blast to the upside? Not sure but we'll certainly keep our eyes open. Europe and Asia finished mixed. We'll see if we get some upside follow through tomorrow.

Lower to kick off the new week as the Dow fell 35 points on almost average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. This should start the summation index to turn sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but not at an extreme. Not sure what our next SPY trade will be. Still nine days to go in the February option cycle. Not a lot of economic data due out this week. However there will be plenty of Fed speak beginning with Chairman Powell tomorrow. We are still on the sidelines for now. Gold had a weak bounce of five bucks after last weeks carnage. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 1 3/8, while GDX had a slight fractional loss. Volume was light. GDX has broken its up trend line that began in the beginning of November. It is currently finding support at around 30, which is also where the 50 day moving average lies. I suppose if we get brave maybe we'll try the February calls here as GDX is now short term oversold. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing better but not all the way back yet. Health is improving but not near 100%. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators here have turned up. However as long as the VIX remains below the 20 level we'll keep looking for higher stock prices going forward. The VIX is at 19 and change. Asia and Europe were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll see if Chairman Powell gets things going one way or the other tomorrow.

We did see some selling today but it could have been worse. The employment report had an upside surprise. However the tone of the market has changed and there seems to be plenty of money for equities at the moment. If this was last year we would have had a rout in stocks today. But it isn't last year and we have to adjust our expectations and trading plans accordingly. I am still in recovery mode from the emergency room visit on Wednesday but hopefully the blog will be back to normal on Monday. Do note that gold has gotten crushed in the last two sessions, including down over $50 today. I'll be resting over the weekend to try and get back to things next week.

At the hospital in the emergency room yesterday so I missed the Fed day reaction that was a jump to the upside for most indices. More gains today for the major indices but the Dow is lagging here. The leader is the NASDAQ and decidedly so. That is bullish going forward. The S&P 500 broke through its longer term down trend line and now the NASDAQ has followed with volume picking up. All signs are positive for the market at this point. The VIX staying below 20 is another plus. Declines can now be purchased as we will have to see how far things run up. Not sure where the liquidity is coming from but we'll enjoy the ride. I'm feeling under par to be sure and cannot do the usually more detailed blog today. I hope to be back closer to normal by next week. It goes without saying that if you can't give the market your full attention, there is no point in trying any trades. Health is my number one priority at the moment. The markets will always be there.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 368 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way again and that's a plus. I was at the doctors office again today so the blog will be brief. Gold was up a few bucks on the futres. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. Mentally I'm just not there as my medical issues must take precedence. You should not attempt to trade if you can't give it 100%. The VIX was lower and remains below the 20 level. We'll get the Fed tomoorow but the way the market is acting it appears that higher stock prices are in the near future. Asia was lower and Europe pretty much unchanged in last nights trade. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The Dow begins this week with a loss of 261 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues to the upside. The NASDAQ led the way down. Fed and employment numbers this week. The market could be in the process of retesting that long term down trend line that it broke. Or that breakout was false and we're heading a lot lower from here. I'm still inclined to believe the former. Gold, the US dollar and interest rates pretty much ended flat on the session. The XAU lost 1 7/8, while GDX fell 1/2. Volume was pretty light. Mentally I'm a bit out of sorts as I had to have medical procedure done this morning and must return for follow up tomorrow. So the blog will not have the usual amount. When you have good health all that matters is the game. Once you have some kind of health issue you realize that's what really matters and the market comes in a distant 2nd. The VIX jumped up today which fits with a down market. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. Hopefully I'll make it back here tomorrow.

An up and down session as the Dow managed a gain of 28 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The inflation data came in where expected. We went up down up and back down again. The NASDAQ continues to outperform and that's bullish. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and is finding some resistance at the December highs. We've broken the long term down trend line here but the volume was not that strong. We also had our first close above the 50 week moving average in about a year. We'll know a lot more after next weeks Fed announcement and speech. The only concern here is the lack of volume on the rise. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 2 1/8, while GDX lost almost 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over and the gold shares under performed the metal itself. That's a negative for the bulls here. We'll continue to wait for GDX to get oversold before trying the calls again there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower yet again and the short term indicators remain oversold but not to an extreme. The VIX can stay oversold for quite some time during market rallies. Next week looms large with both the Fed and the employment report. We are going to have to carefully go over the charts this weekend before making the next trading decision. The markets reaction to the news and data will be the most important thing as usual. Still plenty of time in the February option cycle to make something happen. We're overall in the bullish camp but the SPY touched its top Bollinger band today and came back. The volume on the recent short term rise there has steadily gotten lower as price has gotten higher. So there will be plenty to ponder in the next two days. Europe and Asia were higher to close the week with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Grinding our way higher as the Dow gained 205 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ again led the way up. The S&P 500 has broken out from the long term declining tops line although the volume has been weak. You can't argue with price though. The S&P remains short term overbought and staying that way. The 50 day moving average has gotten above the 200 day. I think the only thing that could derail the near term positive outlook would be a negative surprise in tomorrows inflation data. But we aren't looking for that and remain in favor of higher stock prices going forward. Gold took a breather and was off a dozen. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was down 2 1/4, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. There is a potential negative divergence for GDX on the daily RSI indicator. Potential being the key term there as things could change here tomorrow. But it is something to keep an eye on because the gold shares have been pretty strong for quite a while. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower in todays session and that fits an up market. The daily chart still looks like it has room to go down and the lower Bollinger band has a downward slope. Not yet completely oversold here on the daily indicators. The VIX implies higher stock prices to come. Asia was mixed with China still closed. The European markets were up. We'll finish out the trading week tomorrow.

An early steep sell off was met with buying for the rest of the session and the Dow did manage to make it all the way back to a gain of 9 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. Bad news on the earnings front from MSFT was the early morning culprit but we saw buyers appear once again during the day. This has been the case lately as we hover around the longer term down trend line for the S&P 500. To me it has the feel of getting the selling out of the way before the market powers higher through that line, hopefully with some better volume than we've seen lately. Where before the negative beginning to the day would lead to more selling we are now seeing buyers step in. The S&P does remain short term overbought. We'll get some economic data in the next couple of days to trade off of. Gold was up over $10 on the futures as we approach the $1950 level there. The US dollar was lower again and interest rates were steady. The XAU rose over 2 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was average. GDX is still short term overbought but money just continues to flow into the gold shares. This is a move up that just keeps going. Having regrets about not being on board. But we'll have to remain on the sidelines there for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today and came back from the higher level of the session. The daily chart here looks like it wants to go lower and there's room to move down on the short term indicators. I'm looking for higher stock prices between now and the close on Friday. Much of Asia still closed but what was trading was mixed. Europe was slightly lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow continues its trek upward as it gained 104 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with both the S&P and the NASDAQ posting slight losses. The S&P 500 is about to have its 50 day moving average cross above its 200 day. That is bullish. However we are stalling here at the long term down trend line and the volume is weak. We need to see a good volume rise here and it will be all clear for the averages to move higher. We remain pretty sure that will be the outcome unless we see some kind of extended decline from here. Doubt that will happen though as the technical evidence points to a continued move up. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up about ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose a point while GDX added 1/3. Volume was on the light side. The gold shares simply continue to move higher but I cannot bring myself to purchase the GDX calls with the short term overbought technical condition there. We will try and remain patient. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and its indicators have turned down. Not yet completely oversold there which implies higher prices going forward. Earnings will probably drive things tomorrow as there are no major economic reports due. Japan was higher again as most of Asia remains shut down for the new year holiday. Europe was mixed. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Moving higher to begin the week as the Dow rose 254 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Once again the NASDAQ led the way and that is bullish. The S&P 500 is breaking through the long term down trend line today. We'll have to see if it holds up for the rest of the week and I believe that it will. Getting short term overbought on the daily technical indicators there but there is room for them to go higher. The only caveat is the volume not being robust but we'll see what goes on as the week unfolds. We continue to put our faith in higher stock prices moving forward. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates rose again. The XAU and GDX were barely negative on average volume. We'll continue to wait for GDX to get short term oversold for now. However the money coming into the gold shares has been substantial and you cannot ignore that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains below the 20 level. The short term indicators here are trending sideways just below mid-range. The daily candlestick chart view still looks like it wants to go lower which would support higher prices near term for stocks. We'll get the first look at 4th quarter GDP this week and some inflation data due out on Friday. So potential market moving events are out there. Plus earnings will be pouring in as well. Option premiums are high since we just moved into the February option cycle. Still on the sidelines for now. Most of Asia was closed for the lunar new year but Japan was open and higher. Europe was up as well. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Back up today to close out the week as the Dow gained 330 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ led the way again and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 is once again poised to take on the long term down trend line that has defined the bear market. Next week will probably tell the story on that. We still think that line will be broken to the upside and that the bear will be declared dead. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up. With the summation index rising, the path of least resistance is up. We'll know more next week as todays rise could also be just a result of the option expiration. However we don't think that's the case. Gold rose $5 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates were up again. The XAU was up over two points, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was about average. Still short term overbought on the gold shares but not extremely so. Still waiting for some kind of pullback here but it just isn't happening. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed back below the 20 level. The daily candlestick chart there implies lower VIX readings and higher stock prices. It is another reason why we think that the S&P will finally make it past the down trend line that began last January. The weekly S&P 500 candlestick chart also has a constructive look to it with bottoms above bottoms though still below the 50 week moving average. So next week will be key in my opinion to where we're going and we think it's higher. Europe and Asia were up on Friday to end the week. We'll check the charts as usual over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some downside follow through to yesterdays debacle as the Dow dropped 252 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower but it doesn't have the feel as though we're falling apart here. The S&P 500 did close below its 50 day moving average but remains above the up trend line at 3850. I'm not exactly sure what to make of this weeks price action but I do not believe that we're on the precipice of a huge decline. I could be wrong. 3850 on the S&P 500 will be important to watch in my view. Gold rallied and futures gained over $25. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU was up almost 2 1/2, while GDX gained over 3/4. Volume was good to the upside. Gold and the gold shares continue to rally despite the overbought condition. This was a move that I should have just jumped aboard at the end of last year. I'm inclined to hop on now but the prudent thing to do would be to wait for the gold shares to get oversold. But at this rate that isn't going to happen anytime soon. Money continues to flow into this sector for whatever reason. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed just a bit higher after being up more early on. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it now wants to head back down which would be bullish for stocks. The short term indicators are mid-range. The VIX remains below its 50 day moving average. We'll be rolling into the February option cycle next week and I don't have any urgent trades in mind. Missed opportunities to start the new year and that's always frustrating. But the market doesn't care and you've got to keep moving on in this game. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines and see how the week finishes tomorrow.

Once again the Dow got crushed as it fell 613 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up though. An early morning rally at the open didn't last long and it was all downhill from there. The Dow was again the leader to the downside. My prognosis for the S&P 500 to break its long term down trend line has been put on hold. That index was turned away again at that level and the line remains in effect. Perhaps there was too much agreement that the line was about to break as the bullishness in the media had risen. Whatever the case, the short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over and it closed below the 200 day moving average. I did not purchase any of the SPY January puts today and that was obviously a mistake. I'll try not to beat myself up too much about that. The small stocks are not falling as much as the Dow so perhaps this decline will not last that long. That's my best guess at the moment. The positive option expiration bias has not showed up again. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell over a point, while GDX lost about 1/3. Volume was light. The indicators for GDX remain overbought but not extremely so. We will wait for an oversold reading there before putting on the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling a bit down as I was looking to try the SPY puts here but didn't. It would have been a very short term trade and I usually do not fare well on those. However you cannot wait for the perfect set up every time. You can't win if you're not at the table. The VIX was up and closed above 20. The short term indicators here have turned back up with plenty of room to go higher. I though that the VIX would stay oversold and the market would move higher. After todays price action that thesis was wrong. The VIX is still below the 50 day moving average and we'll keep an eye on that particular level. Perhaps the S&P is headed back to the up trend line at 3850 and that's another area to watch near term. A break of that level would put the bulls on the run. However the overall breadth of the market hasn't been bad here and I'm not convinced the bears are going to take over. Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow got clobbered today to begin the trading week but that was mostly due to an earnings miss for GS. The most watched index fell 391 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a small gain. The S&P 500 had a small loss and remains short term overbought. I am looking at the SPY January puts here but haven't decided if a trade here is worth the risk. With only three days left in the January option cycle, obviously this would be an extremely short term trade. We do have producer inflation data out tomorrow morning. I was thinking about getting the puts ahead of the Beige book release in the afternoon. However the prudent thing to do is to wait for a decent technical signal as we move forward. I'm thinking that I just want to put on a trade because I haven't in a while and that would probably be a recipe for disastor. We'll see. The S&P is stalling at the long term down trend line. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and bonds were mixed. The XAU dropped 4 1/2, while GDX shed 1 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. The gold shares underperformed the metal today and that's a negative. Still overbought for the gold shares. The short term up trend line for GDX comes in at 30 1/2 which is a point away. We'll at least wait to see what happens if we get there. A throw back to the former resistance at 30 might be a spot to try the calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but did close below the 20 level. Still short term oversold here and below the 50 day moving average. We would have to see the VIX finish the week above the 20 level to alter our view of higher stock prices going forward. With the small stocks holding up here we still think that the path of least resitance is higher overall. But that doesn't mean we can't see a near term drop before heading back up. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. It gained 112 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 is now right on the down trend line that began last January that defines the current bear market. This would be the spot to try the SPY January puts with only 4 days to go in this months option cycle. But I wouldn't advise it as the market is in rally mode and will probably close above the line by the end of next week. You could maybe try the puts in a very short term time frame when the market opens on Tuesday but you would have to be very nimble. I don't think it's worth the risk but we will look at it over the weekend. The S&P remains short term overbought. The light volume must be overcome to make the break of the down trend line valid. We expect the market to hesitiate here but it may not develop into a trade worthy decline. Gold was up $25 on the futures and climbed above the $1900 level. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU gained over 1 1/2, while GDX was up about 1/2. Volume was average. The gold shares are short term overbought and staying that way. Perhaps they will contiue to run up until next Fridays expiration. If we get a move back to the break out at the 30 level maybe we could try the GDX calls there. However the reality is that we missed this move higher in GDX for the January option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues lower and has closed the week solidly below the 20 level. This supports the overall bullish scenario for the stock market. Although short term oversold it can remain that way for weeks during rallies. The low VIX is another reason to be careful when attempting any trades from the short side going forward. It really appears that the bears have lost control and we'll see higher stock prices going forward. We'll check the charts over the weekend as usual. It is a holiday weekend as well so trading won't begin again in the US until Tuesday. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week with the exception of Japan. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The inflation data came and went. The Dow bounced around all session but had a positive bias. The most watched index gained 217 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive again. The summation index continues to climb. The numbers on inflation came in where expected. The Dow led the way today. We are once again at the moment of truth as the S&P 500 is just below the 4000 level. That is where the down trend line that defines the bear market lives. I am pretty sure that this will be the time that we break through it. The S&P is short term overbought but during rallies it simply stays that way. We are almost into option expiration week and the usual positive bias. Next week is a holiday shortened trading week. As much as I'd like to try the SPY puts here, I think that we are going to get through the long term down trend line in the S&P and travel higher. We might pause at theses levels in the near term but the market wants to go higher. The strength in the summation index is telling us that. Gold rallied on the inflation data and the futures gained over twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower and is breaking longer term support. Interest rates dropped again. The XAU added 2 points, while GDX was up over 1/2. Volume was good to the upside as the rally here continues despite the short term overbought conditions. There's nothing in the way to keep things from going higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had the big move that the contracting Bollinger bands projected and it was to the downside. The VIX closed below the 19 level and implies that the path of least resistance for stock prices is up. This is another reason why we think that the resistance for the S&P will be taken out and the bear market will be declared over. Short term oversold for the VIX but it will stay that way for a while during up swings. All around the technical evidence is pointing to higher prices as we continue through January. Only a week to go in teh January option cycle and I don't see a trade worth risking at the moment. We'll see. Europe and Asia showed gains in last nights trade. We'll see how things close out the week tomorrow.

Stocks continues to move higher as the Dow gained 268 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to move up. I thought it would be a day of waiting on tomorrows inflation report but the market had other ideas. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way up. At this rate it seems as though the market will simply stay in rally mode regardless of where the inflation numbers come out on Thursday. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought and also on the cusp of breaking through the long term down trend line that has defined the bear market. Weak inflation numbers tomorrow will probably get the S&P above that line. If that's the case we'll see quite a move up tomorrow. However the line is still in effect until it is broken on good volume. It should be an interesting market day. Gold was up about five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat and interest rates dropped. The longer term chart of the dollar shows it on its long term uptrend line that began in 2021. It too is in a defining position of where it goes from here. Something to keep an eye on because it will have implications for gold. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Remaining short term overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that doesn't fit with an up day for stocks. The Bollinger bands are getting even tighter here on the daily chart. So we can expect some type of big move from the VIX in the near future. Which way is the question. The VIX remains above the 20 level but below its 50 day moving average. Perhaps tomorrow will bring an outsized VIX move. Just a guess on my part. I did think about getting some SPY January puts today but with the summation index in such a bullish position I stayed on the sidelines. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the CPI tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 186 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. It was a good day for the bulls as the daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 looks much better. The NASDAQ once again led the way and that's a plus. Getting short term overbought on the S&P but not all the way there yet. Resistance still comes in at the 4000 level and that would be the spot to try the SPY puts if you're so inclined. I'm starting to think that we will just keep moving higher. But we'll see what happens when and if we get there. The market is waiting on the inflation data due out on Thursday. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX added over 1/2. Volume was light. I'm still disappointed in not owning the GDX calls here but what can you do? I cannot purchase them with GDX already in the short term overbought condition because it just doesn't make technical sense. Sometimes being patient is one of the hardest things to do. We will have to simply watch and wait here. Mentally I'm doing OK but I would like to make a trade in the January option cycle. Perhaps a position ahead of the inflation data? It would have to be put on tomorrow. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are pointing down. Not yet oversold here and the VIX now does look like it is implying higher stock prices in the near term. The coil formation has broken out to the downside as the VIX gets closer to the 20 level. I'll be the first to admit that I haven't been able to figure out this indicator for a while now. We'll see where it goes from here. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. Should just be a waiting game tomorrow but with the stock market you never know.

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow fell 113 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. Tha NASDAQ managed a gain today but we didn't see the good upside follow through to Fridays gains that we were expecting. Markets were higher early on but couldn't hold on to the advance. I still think that we are going higher from here in the near term as the summation index suggests. But if we have a negative session tomorrow I'd be willing to change my mind. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are stalling and could roll over with a negative session on Tuesday. The daily candlestick chart there would also look ominous with a down day tomorrow. Hasn't happened yet but it's worth keeping an eye on. A failure to move up from here would make Fridays price action just another rally out of nowhere in a bear market. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume. Still short term overbought for GDX. The gold shares underperformed the metal itself for a change today. I've decided not to chase the GDX calls and will wait for an oversold condition before trying them there. At least that's the current thought process. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and was that way even during the morning rally. The daily chart here looks like a triangle or coil pattern, with the reading ready to break out one way or the other. The short term indicators are close to mid-range. After checking the charts over the weekend we could not come up with any definite ideas worth taking a risk on. There is time in the January option cycle to make something happen but we cannot trade just for the sake of trading. Trying to remain patient and looking for a decent signal. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

The Dow exploded to the upside as it gained 700 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. We'll expect to see higher prices from here. The jobs report came in where expected and buyers soon took over. Some short covering in there as well to be sure as there are plenty of bears still around. The NASDAQ led the way today but not by much. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have taken off to the upside with room to run. I suppose that our orignal premise of a base being formed on the S&P was correct. I still didn't have the guts to try the SPY January calls. If we do get some pullback we might try that idea yet. The first line of resistance for the S&P is the 50 day moving average and we are already there. Next comes the long term down trend line that started a year ago which now lies at 4000. That will be the key test. Get through that and we'll declare the bear market done. Gold rallied as the futures gained over thirty bucks. The US dollar had a big drop along with interest rates. The market seems to believe that the rate rise is over. The XAU added 3 1/8, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume continues to be good on the rise. We missed the GDX January call trade. GDX remains short term overbought which occurs during rallies. I still can't buy the calls here with the overbought condition but perhaps I'll change my mind. Price and volume continue to move in the right direction for the bulls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators have turned back down. This implies a lower VIX and higher stock prices. Perhaps the VIX can get below the 20 level and stay there. If that happens the down trend line in the S&P 500 will be broken to the upside. We will see how this all plays out. The economic data out today certainly didn't warrant the kind of rally that we saw but the market always knows more than we do. The summation index is moving back up and we'll take our cues from there. Look for higher prices going forward. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the first week of the new year. We'll go over the charts and data this weekend to try and come up with a game plan for the next two weeks in the January option cycle. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Selling took hold today as the Dow fell 339 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trying to turn back up here. The NASDAQ was the leader to the downside. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and in a sideways channel. I thought that the S&P was forming some kind of base and that prices would move higher from here. However the market just keeps moving sideways with no resolution. Now I am not sure what to expect next. We are getting some bullish signals from some of the indicators but the market is not responding. I'm staying on the sidelines for now with regards to any SPY trades. Gold saw selling today as the futures were off twenty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. The gold shares held up better than the metal itself again and that's a plus. GDX is short term overbought and I just can't bring myself to purchase the calls here with that technical condition. But in up trends the overbought condition can last for quite a while. It's never easy in this game. Money does continue to flow into the gold shares though. Mentally I'm feeling indecisive. I can't really make up my mind what to do here so I'm still on the sidelines. The VIX was off today but down from its best levels on the session. The short term indicators remain at mid-range. I'm not about to predict which way the VIX goes from here as it has had a mind of its own lately. We'll get the employment report tomorrow and it should provide the catalyst to get prices moving one way or the other. After tomorrow there's still a couple of weeks left in the January option cycle. So there's plenty of time for a trade. Asia was up and Europe mixed in last nights trade. All eyes on tomorrows jobs report.

The second day of the new year continued with indecision as the Dow gained 133 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is attempting to turn back up. We were in positive territory for much of the session but moved back and forth from good gains to just smaller ones. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold despite moving up. I'm still a believer in higher prices moving forward. However the lack of a strong move to the upside in the beginning of the year is concerning. Perhaps the jobs report on Friday can get things going. Gold rallied as the futures tacked on another $12. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU jumped 5 1/2, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the upside and GDX broke through resistance at the 30 level. The gold shares outperformed gold itself and that's a plus. It appears that I've missed this trade as GDX is now pretty short term overbought on some of the short term technical indicators. If we do see a near term pullback I'd be willing to try the January calls here. However a more likely scenario is for the gold shares to just plow on higher. Money continues to find its way into this area. Not sure why but we'll stick to the technicals. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. The short term indicators are mid-range and the Bollinger bands are contracting. Still above the 20 level on the VIX but that could change if we see a rally in stocks. Not exactly sure what is next for the VIX as I haven't been able to figure this indicator out for a while lately. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A volatile session to begin the new year as the Dow lost 10 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is starting to congest. We had a huge gap up at the open with the Dow almost reaching a 250 point gain. The market then proceded to lose all that and then some with the Dow almost reaching a 300 point loss. It finished about in the middle of todays range. The market is trying to make up its mind here. I'm still looking for higher prices in the near term but we'll see what the market has to say about that. The NASDAQ was once again the underperformer. There is plenty of bearishness around and that usually leads things to go the other way. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and has been that way for too long in my view. The Bollinger bands here are starting to move closer so we should see some kind of decent move out of this 2 week congestion zone. My guess is that it will be to the upside. I did take a look again at the SPY January calls but didn't have the guts to buy them. We'll consider this idea again tonight. Gold rallied to begin the year with the futures up $18. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell. It looks like today had a flight to safety theme to it. The XAU climbed 3 1/3, while GDX was up a point. Volume was good. The 30 level once again held for the upside in GDX. I suppose if GDX gets through there on good volume we'll just have to jump on board. Hasn't happened yet but we will keep an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK although I do have some indecision as to what is going on here. The VIX was up today and that fits the overall market. The short term indicators here have turned up as well. The Bollinger bands are starting to contract here. Not sure what to expect next with the VIX but that isn't a surprise. Not much of a Santa Claus rally so far and there is only one day left for that. I remain on the sidelines for now but we'll take another look at the SPY calls tonight. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

I suppose it was only fitting to close out 2022 on a down note as the Dow fell 73 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is starting to congest. A last hour rally saved the day from being worse as the Dow was down over 350 at one point. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold on most of its indicators. To me is appears that we have put in a base here on the S&P and I am looking for higher prices to begin the new year. We are seeing extreme readings in our call/put ratio which usually leads to some kind of rally. Also the fact that the NASDAQ hasn't broken down here after hitting a new yearly low is a plus. I did consider getting some SPY January calls today but did not. The light volume this week still makes any moves suspect. But I do think we move up from here. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. The gold shares have been underperforming the metal itself lately. But just like the overall stcok market it is hard to put much credibility in the moves this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly and I still don't know what to make of the action here. The Bollinger bands here are slowly starting to converge so we'll be seeing something meaningful here soon. I just don't know which way it's going to go. Today puts a close to the 2022 trading year. My win percentage was pretty low. However a couple of late huge winning trades turned it into a profitable year. We will try and build on that momentum heading into 2023. Asia was generally higher and Europe down to close out the week. It's another holiday weekend so we'll have an extra day to check the charts and prepare for the start of trading in 2023. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Happy New Year everyone.

Buyers returned today as the Dow climbed 345 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. We got quite a bullish reading on the daily call/put ratio yesterday and todays price action verifies that. Another rally out of nowhere but this one might have legs. The daily S&P 500 chart may have put in a sideways bottom. It remains short term oversold but the daily indicators are starting to point up. Another positive session tomorrow would help the bullish cause. The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P currently has two bullish hammers. The light volume makes everything suspect though and we'll have to see if we get some upside follow through to close out the year on Friday. But at least the NASDAQ led things higher here today. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on extremely light volume. The short term technical indicators for GDX are now mid-range. We will wait for next year to attempt any trades here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains above the 20 level. Not getting any signals from here at the moment. At this point we are just waiting for tomorrow to end before another holiday weekend. We did get a lot of price movement so far this week but the volume or lack of it makes us question what is really going on here. I'd expect some kind of beginning of the year rally when all the players return next week but that's just a guess for now. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll say goodbye to the 2022 trading year tomorrow.

Sellers had the upper hand today as the Dow dropped 365 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. It's heading towards the zero line again and we all know what happens if it makes it through there. We will see new lows for the decline in the S&P if the zero line doesn't hold. Short term oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. The NASDAQ led the way lower and closed at a new low for the year. The light volume isn't helping this week as it tends to skew things one way or the other. For now the bears are back in control. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were flat. The XAU lost 3 3/4, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was very light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to turn lower and the Bollinger bands have contracted which implies a big move is coming. After todays price action it looks like it could be to the downside. I still like the calls here but we're in a wait and see mode at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits the market decline. Not sure where this indicator is headed next. The bulls will have to step up here soon or this could get ugly pretty fast. With such a lack of participation it's easy to get things going one way or the other. Not sure how to interpret whether this decline is for real or not but you have to respect price. Perhaps we'll have a better idea of what's going on after tomorrow. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of the Hang Seng. We'll keep an eye on tonights trading.

A mixed bag to begin the holiday shortened week as the Dow gained 37 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading lower. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way down. It will most likely be a thinly traded week so I don't know how much meaning we can give to the price movement. Most major players won't be back at their desks until the new year. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower, while interest rates jumped. The XAU was up 3 points and GDX gained around 3/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are pointing up and it's not yet overbought. However the 30 level is proving to be stiff resistance for now. A break above there with good volume will lead to higher prices for GDX. I'm still looking at the January calls there but would prefer to buy them at oversold levels. However if GDX does get through 30 I may just jump on board. There's also the option of going out to the February option cycle as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits the overall market drop. It is more short term oversold than overbought. However I'm not getting a good idea of what to expect next here. Still above 20 on the VIX. We'll probably remain on the sidelines until next year at this rate. Europe and Asia had gains overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Some back and forth today in pre-holiday trading as the Dow gained 176 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. The economic data out today came in about where expected. The NASDAQ underperformed and the S&P 500 remains short term oversold. A relatively quiet session and that was to be expected. Gold added $9 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range. We are still considering the GDX January calls for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the positive day for stocks. Not sure what the VIX has in store for us next. Looking ahead to next week, the markets will be closed on Monday. Again players will be on holiday vacation so the volume should be light. Asia was lower and Europe flat to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. Merry Christmas everyone.

It was quite a session and anyting but quiet today. The Dow fell 348 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. It could have been worse as the market was off 800 points about halfway through the day and then made a dramatic comeback. Not sure what it all means as we were on the brink of a huge collapse. Some short covering to be sure but perhaps the sellers just dried up. The smaller stock indices were on their way to testing the October lows when they abruptly turned around. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and that's what occurs during down trends. Not sure where we go from here as things still could go either way after todays price action. We'll have to wait and see how the weeks ends tomorrow. Gold dropped $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses after being lower earlier in the session. The gold shares followed the market back up even though gold itself didn't. Volume was about average. The gold shares outperformed the metal once again and that's a plus if you're bullish. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits with a decline in stocks. The VIX was much higher during the day and almost made it up to the 50 day moving average. But it fell back and lost much of its gain. Not sure what this means either but the VIX is still above the 20 level. Perhaps we are setting up for the Santa Claus rally, which involves the last 5 trading days of December coupled with the first 2 trading days of January. We'll see. For now we'll be on the sidelines until after Christmas. Asia up and Europe down overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

We got the bounce we were looking for today as the Dow gained 526 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. One of the hallmarks of a bear market is a rally that springs up out of nowhere. Todays fits that. But it is where we go from here that will determine the markets fate. If we continue higher into the end of the week, the bear case will lose steam. However if things turn back down from here going into the close on Friday, the bear lives. I'm not sure which way it goes but the S&P 500 is still short term oversold. One of the negatives lately has been the light volume but we are in the holiday season with many away from their desks. For now we will wait and see how it goes before attempting the next trade. Gold was flat on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were steady. The gold shares followed the market higher. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was average. Sitting tight for now with the regards to the GDX January call idea. Will try and wait for GDX to get short term oversold again. Plenty of time left in the January option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped again and closed at the 20 level. The short term indicators here are heading lower and imply more gains for stocks in the near term. Not yet short term oversold. The VIX seems to be saying that there is nothing for the bulls to worry about as the 50 day moving average capped the recent rise here. If the VIX can get and stay below 20 it gives more credibility to the bullish case. Hasn't happened yet but we'll know more by the end of the week. For now we'll remain patient and let the market lead the way up or down. Not always the way we'd like it to be but there is not a clear signal to trade off of in my view at the moment. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Another day of indecision as the Dow bounced around for much of the session. The most watched index gained 92 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving down. The Dow was the outperformer today. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and I'm still waiting for some kind of bounce this week. However as long as the summation index is moving lower, the path of least resistance is down. Many participants are already gone for the holidays so things can get skewed one way or the other. We'll probably wait until next year for the next SPY trade unless we really see a good signal. Gold took off to the upside today as the futures gained thirty bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved up. The XAU jumped 5 points, while GDX was up over a buck. Volume was average. I did place an overnight order for the GDX January calls but it wasn't filled. The Japanese yen climbed overnight and the price of gold sometimes follows the path of the yen. It did today. GDX was short term oversold yesterday but has moved away from there fast. Buying has come into the gold shares for the past month and a half. It looks like we missed this chance to buy the GDX calls again but we'll see. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated as we seem to have missed the trade we were waiting for. Not sure why the market is having such an appetite for gold but that's what it looks like. The Bollinger bands on the GDX daily chart are starting to contract which implies a big move coming there. Seems like it will be to the upside based on the recent price action. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators are still mid-range. So the VIX could go either way from here. Not getting a good idea of what it will do here but it does remain above the 20 level. Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade. I'll be looking for some kind of bounce tomorrow.

More selling to start the week but a last hour bump up kept it from being worse. The Dow fell 162 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. We should see a bounce in the next day or so. Not sure if it will be more than just that. There is a lot of bearishness around though. The smaller stock indexes look like they're going to test their October lows. If that occurs it won't bode well for the overall market. Oversold and remaining there would be trouble going forward. We'll have to see how it plays out. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat and interest rates rose. The XAU was off almost 2 points, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. GDX is almost short term overbought and I'm thinking about putting in an overnight order for the January calls there. However if the overall market continues to sink, GDX will probably go with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with a down market. Again this indicator isn't acting in the usual fashion. Not sure what to make of it. The short term indicators remain at mid-range. Still could go either way here. The weekly indicators for the major averages still have plenty of room to move lower. That's why it's possible that things could get dicey here. Add in the summation index heading lower and you see the situation that we're in. Unless we see some kind of turnaround soon the markets will be heading lower going into the end of the year. If we continue to move closer to the zero line and through it on the summation index, the previous lows for the major indexes won't hold. That is what we are facing at the moment. Europe was up and Asia generally down to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Some follow through selling today as the Dow fell 281 on extremely heavy triple witch expiration volume. The advance/declines were a little better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The S&P closed right about at the 50 day moving average and is short term oversold. So we could see a bounce early next week. Or not. You can somewhat make a case for a small head and shoulders top for the S&P 500 on the daily candlestick chart. If valid the measuring objective would be around 3700. Most of the major averages are short term oversold but in down trends they tend to stay that way. The technical indicators for the weekly charts have plenty of room to move lower. So unless we see a quick turnaround we are in the next leg down for the bear market. We'll take our cues from the summation index and it's heading lower. Gold found buyers once again as the futures were up $15. The US dollar was slightly higher and rates were mixed again. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on lighter than lately volume. Yes, we still like the GDX January call idea as gold seems to catch a bid with any decline lately. However at the rate it has been going we won't be seeing GDX reach short term oversold anytime soon. Perhaps that will change next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped with a down market, once again not the normal order of things. The indicators here remain mid-range. Not sure what to expect with the VIX next. The bears have come out of hibernation before Christmas. Will that mean no Santa Claus rally this year? Time will tell on that. Only two weeks left for the 2022 trading year. Normally I'd expect things to slow down with the holidays upon us but this market doesn't seem in the mood as yet. An extra week for the January option cycle so the premiums are higher than usual. We'll be checking the charts this weekend to try and come up with some new ideas. Asia and Europe were lower as it's a worldwide exit from stocks. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market has spoken. Stocks got clobbered today. The Dow fell 764 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving back down. Equities had made it back to the longer term down trend line on the S&P 500 only to be repelled. The bears took control where they had to. My idea of breaking through that line and on to higher prices has been proven wrong. It appears that lower prices are in the near future for stocks. When the market speaks we have to listen even if it's not what we want to hear. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back down. Not completely oversold yet so there is room to move lower. The tight Bollinger bands prediction of a big move is to the downside. The positive expiration week bias is not happening this time around. I guess the first downside target would be the 50 day moving average at 3860. Gold slumped as well with the futures off over $30. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU lost 5 1/8, while GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down. Now it is just a matter of GDX getting to short term oversold, which is what we've been waiting for. I'm not sure how long that will take and even if it is the right idea anymore. At this point we'll let option expiration pass tomorrow and go from there. If the US dollar starts to rally from here it would be a major headwind for gold. The dollar has been oversold for quite a while and is now coming off of that condition. It's something to keep an eye on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits the market decline. The short term indicators here are mid-range which would mean we could still have plenty of downside to go if the VIX continues to rise. At this point I'm not sure what to think when it comes to the VIX. It hasn't been acting in the usual fashion. It has been quite a trading week already but we still have one day left. The rally has ended and we'll have to see how low we go. Europe and Asia were down as well. We'll see how expiration Friday goes.