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Thursday, February 09, 2023

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 249 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way down but we did see a little buying in the final half hour. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and have plenty of room to go lower. I am not sure why things have gotten weaker here. The short term up trend lines for the NASDAQ and the S&P remain intact but another day like today will violate them. IWM has already broken that short term line. Perhaps the rally that began in the beginning of the year has run its course for now. We'll know more after tomorrows price action. Gold fell $17 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU dropped 2 1/2, while GDX lost 5/8. Volume was average. I did place an open order this morning for the GDX February calls but it wasn't filled. GDX remains short term oversold and has now closed below its 50 day moving average. There's only six days left in the February option cycle so any trade now carries a lot of risk. I will reconsider placing the order again overnight. Mentally I'm still in recovery mode from the recent illness but feel like I'm almost all the way back. The VIX was up today and closed above the important 20 level. It has stopped right at the 50 day moving average. The 50 day has contained the VIX since the rally that began in October. So it is important for the bulls that the VIX to turn back down here or we will have to adjust our thinking. It is not quite yet short term overbought but could get there tomorrow with a repeat of today. So we are at an important market juncture in my view. Europe was higher and Asia too for the most part. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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