Monday, February 27, 2023
An uneven start to the new week as the Dow rose 72 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues down. We had a gap higher to start the day and spent the rest of the session drifting off. The NASDAQ was the leader moving higher today but the lack of volume is a concern. Not to mention that weak Monday rallies are not the most convincing. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and I wouldn't be surprised if we were lower tomorrow. I would be surprised if we somehow build on todays slight gains. End of the month tomorrow but I'm not sure what effect that will have on things. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved slightly down. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on pretty light volume. The gold shares remain short term oversold. If this is the bounce we were looking for it can be descibed as anemic. There are no compelling reasons to be buying gold right now. My GDX March calls are still losers. Still hoping for a better bounce but hope is not a trading stategy. Will be looking to take the loss this week unless something out of the ordinary happens. Don't count on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains above the 20 level and above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are pointing down and are at mid-range. That would imply a lower VIX and higher stock prices going forward. However whatever I have thought about the VIX has been wrong lately so we'll just have to wait and see where it goes from here. Not a lot of economic reports due out this week. I suppose that we'll see if we get any of the beginning of the month positive money flows. Asia lower and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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