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Monday, February 13, 2023

Higher prices to begin option expiration week as the Dow rallied 376 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down but another day like today would change that. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Not sure why we moved up so much in front of tomorrows CPI report but perhaps the market knows something we don't. Of course the light volume is troublesome. Short covering probably played a role today as well. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up. If that happens the rally will have legs. Of course it could all change tomorrow with a higher surprise from the consumer price numbers. All we can do now is wait. Gold dropped over $10 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was off over 3/4, while GDX had a slight fractional mover lower. Volume was pretty light here but the gold shares held up rather well considering the metal lost ground today. Things should get moving on the CPI report tomorrow. My GDX February calls are still about at where I purchased them. 4 days to go for this trade and Tuesday will most likely be the key as to whether or not this trade succeeds. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today and is still above the 20 level. The short term indicators here moved sideways today. The VIX did close below its 50 day moving average. I'm not getting a good feel for what will happen next for the VIX. My guess would be that it heads lower and stocks head higher. But I certainly don't know. All in all the thing to look for is the market reaction to tomorrows numbers. Asia was lower with the exception of China and Europe was up. We'll see what the market has in store for us tomorrow.

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