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Tuesday, February 21, 2023

The market got clobbered today coming in off of a long weekend. The Dow fell 697 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down and we'll take our cues from there. The summation index was moving down when the S&P was trending sideways and in retrospect that was a clue. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a plus for the bears. The S&P 500 is short term oversold but some of the indicators have room to move lower. The up trend line that began last October is still intact there but now is in jeopardy. It comes in around 3975. Another day like today will take it out and then we'd see some real selling. Not sure if that will happen or not but my take on things lately has been wrong. Also not sure what would turn things positive in the near term so it may be a case of look out below. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed about 1/3. Volume was light. I did place an order overnight for the GDX March calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it open. I can't say that this is the best idea at the moment but one of the longer term indicators for GDX is almost at the point where we see a bounce or at least stop moving down. It has given 4 signals in the past 3 years and 75% of them saw a bounce. The other time the gold shares just moved sideways. We'll see if it gets filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher and is now above its upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators here are getting overbought but not completely just yet. Another day like today would do it. I'm not sure what to expect here. I suppose the question for tomorrow will be, will we see any buyers if the S&P hits that up trend line? Or will that just bring in more sellers as the rally that began last year is declared dead. The NYA has already broken that line. Always plenty of questions in this game. Europe and Asia were both lower to start the trading week. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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