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Wednesday, February 22, 2023

We saw continued selling today but not as drastic as on Tuesday. The Dow fell 84 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving down. Kind of a mixed bag as the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The S&P 500 is trying to stay above the longer term up trend line that began in October and its 50 day moving average. I'm not sure if it will be successful. Short term oversold here now so I would be looking for at least some kind of bounce but maybe not the beginning of a sustained move higher. We've got more inflation data due out on Friday and that will probably tell the story for where we are going. The tone of the market is negative at the moment. Gold dropped $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU lost 2 1/4, while GDX was off 2/3. Volume was average. My open order for the GDX March calls was filled. They closed about where I purchased them. One of our longer term indicators for GDX is at a level that has produced a bounce or at least sideways movement when it has gotten as far oversold as it stands now. That is the primary basis for this trade. It should be a short term trade from here. NEM reports earnings tomorrow and that will influence GDX. I can't say I'm overly confident that this trade will work because the medium term indicators for GDX are not yet completely oversold. We'll see where it goes from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit a down market. The short term indicators for the VIX have stalled and are trying to roll over. Still above the 20 level here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Europe and Asia were lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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