A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 95 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  the summation index is moving higher.  The small stocks were negative today and the S&P 500 had a slight loss.  RUT was lower and the VIX had a little spike.  Perhaps we're at a near term high or maybe not.  Tomorrows price action could tell a lot.  My position in the SPY June puts is showing a small loss and I may be stopped out tomorrow.  It wouldn't be the end of the world but I do think that there's some weakness coming.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices remain overbought.  GE was up about 1/8 on OK volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today had the feel of simply a pause in the action for profit taking.  There wasn't any major economic news and the recent geo-political worries have faded.  There is a G-7 meeting this weekend but nothing is expected to come out of that.  We've got the US/North Korea summit next Tuesday followed by the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  Perhaps we'll get some market movement out of that.  For now we'll have to see how we close out the week tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher last night.  We'll finish up the first trading week of June tomorrow.

The Dow powered ahead today and roared higher by 346 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were once again just shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  It appears that the summer rally has begun early.  All signs seem to point to even higher prices going forward.  Perhaps we will just run things up into the expiration next week.  My SPY June put order was filled.  Shortly thereafter the market began to move up.  I decided to sell that order right back for about a 15% loss and move on to a higher strike price, which I did.  That trade is now showing a loss.  It really looks like this is the wrong idea overall.  The Dow was much stronger than the overall market but that doesn't seem to matter.  We're still overbought and staying there for most of the major stock indices.  The VIX is now below 12, which is a new low since the decline earlier this year.  Small stocks indexes are setting new all time highs.  Perhaps all the bullishness in the media is actually warranted.  GE was off over 1/8 on average volume.  For some reason GE is not participating in the rally.  Gold finished the day little changed as the US dollar lost a little ground.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The yield on TNX rose.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm back in the next trade but now feel as if I maybe should have just stepped aside from this SPY put idea.  I at least bailed out of the first trade right away, which now appears to be the right move.  However backing that up by trying to move up to a higher strike price doesn't look like it's going to work.  There's still 7 days to go in the June option cycle but at the rate we're climbing it won't matter.  We'll see how the rest of the week goes but I don't anticipate any kind of turnaround in this environment.  But the market does go where it wants and we won't stay overbought forever, will we?  Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Pretty much sideways today as the Dow fell 13 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the small sticks still leading the way.  I adjusted my open order for the SPY June puts.  A run to 2760 on the S&P 500 should be enough to get the order filled.  Overbought and staying there for most of the major indices.  The VIX remains below 13.  GE was up almost a dime on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks with the US dollar slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX were slightly higher on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market has the feel of simply marking time here so far this week.  It's as if it is simply on hold until we get the Fed announcement in a week.  The summertime feel is already here.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time closing high today along with QQQ and NDX.  RUT as well.  With these indices leading the way it appears that higher prices are inevitable.  Then why try the index puts?  Well we are pretty far above the 50 day moving averages for the small stocks.  We also will not stay overbought forever.  Add in the bullishness that I'm hearing in the media and I think that at the right price the puts are worth a shot.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia finished mixed overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A good start to the week for the bulls as the Dow rose 178 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The VIX is now below 13.  RUT hit a new all time high and the NASDAQ appears to be ready to break out.  The S&P 500 is the laggard here.  I did place an open order for some SPY June puts again if we see a rally to the 2760 level.  However with the trend so strongly in favor of higher prices now, I may cancel this order tonight.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought.  But that can continue as prices move up.  The TRAN was lower today but that may not mean anything.  GE was off over 1/3 on good volume.  GE closed back below its 50 day moving average.  Gold was off a couple bucks while the US dollar was a little lower.  The XAU and GDX were both a bit lower on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only nine days left in the June option cycle.  I'm trying to figure out if the powers that be are simply going to run things up here into expiration.  It is a possibility.  The light volume today may or may not be a concern.  We do already seem to be in summer mode for the market.  I am trying this SPY put trade because we are overbought and the media seems rather bullish at the moment.  The VIX is also lower than it has been lately and could be due for a snap back to the upside.  There is some economic data due out this week but the real story may lie in next weeks Fed announcement and the markets reaction to it.  There's also the geo-political background of the US/North Korea summit on the 12th.  If it actually happens.  So there are potential market movers but they are not until next week.  I'll look things over again tonight and decide what to do with the open order.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the late night developments. 

The back and forth continued today as the Dow rose 219 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the small stocks continue to lead the way.  The VIX is now back below 14 and all signs point to a bullish case for higher prices going forward.  The employment report was a little better than expected and the market was higher from the get go.  I did get stopped out of my SPY June put trade when the market opened.  It was a 25% loss and I can live with that.  The timing going in wasn't as good as it could be and the subsequent decline was shallow.  There's still two weeks left in the June option cycle and I may try this trade again despite all the bullishness.  But I don't see a clear signal at the moment.  GE was up a couple cents on average volume.  Gold lost $7 as the US dollar edged higher.  Rates ticked up a bit as well but did not have a noticeable effect on gold and the dollar today.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on average volume.  I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite another trading loss.  I'm taking solace in the fact that at least this time I managed the trade correctly.  There really wasn't any chance to take a decent profit for the duration of that trade.  I'll simply have to wait and see what my next decision will be.  The short term indicators on the S&P 500 are making there way back to overbought levels.  The Bollinger bands are starting to constrict which means that some type of move is in the works.  Now the question is will this take place during the June option cycle or not?  We've still got the Fed meeting before expiration and now the US/North Korea summit appears to be on track as well.  Geo-political concerns from Italy/Europe have been put aside for a day.  As long as the small stocks are leading the way it is hard to get too concerned about a substantial decline.  However with the overbought short term readings in most of the major averages, it's also hard to try and trade this from the long side.  I'll have to wait for what I deem to be the next signal and take it from there.  I also may just sit things out for a while because we are on the cusp of summer and the potential doldrums could be coming up.  I will look things over this weekend and decide what to do or not do going forward.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back and forth as the Dow fell 252 points on heavy volume to end the month of May.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow and that is a plus.  Geo-political concerns returned along with some tariffs for Europe and North America.  The VIX is back above 15 and we'll take our cues from there.  We'll get some movement off of the jobs report tomorrow.  Which way as always is anybody's guess.  My SPY June puts are actually showing a small profit.  But that could all change tomorrow.  GE dropped almost a dime on average volume.  Gold was off a couple bucks while the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  I'd expect gold to move on the employment report as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is trying to make up its mind where to go here.  There was no follow through to both good up and down days this week so far.  Tomorrow will tell the story I believe.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range so things could go either way.  The recent breadth along with the out performance of the small stocks seems to be pointing towards higher prices.  But we are at the risk of headline events at the moment, so anything goes.  If we get a confirmation that the US will be meeting with North Korea, the market should rally.  Perhaps the opposite if there is no meeting.  Or the market may ignore that and focus on something else.  Tomorrow the key will be the reaction to the jobs report so we'll take it from there.  Asia was higher and Europe lower in overnight trade.  We'll begin the month of June tomorrow along with the end of the trading week. 

The market snapped back to the upside today as the Dow climbed 306 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to the upside.  The fears of yesterday have disappeared.  I did place an order for the SPY June puts overnight and it was filled a couple of hours into the session.  It is showing a small loss and I already feel that this was probably the wrong move.  The VIX is back to just below the 15 level.  Where it goes from here will determine how long I'll last in this trade.  I have placed a stop limit order to exit this trade with a reasonable loss if it gets hit.  The 15 level on the VIX is key in my opinion.  If an actual decline is about to occur, the VIX should stay above this level.  We've got the end of the month tomorrow and the jobs report on Friday so there is potential for some kind of market movement.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was average.  Gold was up only a couple bucks despite the US dollar getting clobbered.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No follow through to the downside today and the price action today seems quite positive actually.  I'm not sure that getting the SPY puts today was the right call.  It could be that yesterday was simply a one day wonder and we'll travel higher from here.  But it's also too early to tell.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned back up and that is a plus for the bulls.  RUT also hit a new all time high today as well.  So you can see my concern with getting filled for the SPY June puts today.  So we'll see how it goes from here.  The problems in Italy did not just go away but the market goes where it wants.  Asia was lower and Europe higher last night.  We'll see how the market closes out the month of May tomorrow. 

Headline risk has returned with a vengeance as the Dow fell 391 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is starting to move sideways.  The overall market was weak but not as weak as the Dow.  Considering the huge drop today it is a comfort for the bulls that the advance/declines line wasn't at least 2 to 1 negative.  Trouble in Italy now which looks like a repeat of the Greece debacle in recent memory.  I'm sure that it will all get straightened out but where the market goes in the mean time is the question.  The VIX had a huge spike and has climbed back above 15.  That was the level that I was looking for a breech and we got it today.  I am no longer looking at the June SPY calls but that could change.  I'll wait and see how the market reacts if we get back to the 15 level on the VIX.  I'll be looking at the SPY June puts.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was pretty good.  Gold was up a few bucks and the dollar rallied as well.  Not much of a safe haven flow if you ask me.  There was however, plenty of money seeking TNX.  It broke its up trend line for yield and had its best day in quite a while.  So there is some fear out there about something.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is a shortened trading week but it doesn't feel like it after today.  We've got the end of the month coming and the jobs report on Friday.  However with the event risk from Europe taking center stage, none of that seems to matter.  The trouble when things get like this is that you really don't know where things are going to go on a day to day basis.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have gotten oversold in a hurry.  But the small stocks remain relative leaders and that's a plus.  On the other hand if there is really some kind of systemic risk out there, that won't matter.  So we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.  I will take a good look at the SPY June puts if we get some type of snap back in the next couple of days.  It looks to me like the summation index is about to roll over and if that occurs owning puts would be the proper play.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were down last night as this is a worldwide risk off scenario.  We'll see if we get any downside follow through tomorrow.  

A lower session today before a long weekend as the Dow fell 58 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is now barely moving higher.  The small stocks continue to show good relative strength with the NASDAQ positive today.  As long as the small guys are leading the way I have to remain bullish in the short term.  Some overseas currency concerns today but I think that is simply noise.  I'm leaning towards getting some SPY June calls despite the continued short term overbought condition.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was off a bit as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My feeling here is that the roughly two week sideways movement that we've seen is a consolidation of the rally that began in the beginning of the month.  However as usual I could be wrong.  The TRAN has broken out above its consolidation zone of the past four months.  That is another plus for the bullish cause.  The fact that the short term technical indicators are overbought doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  Getting the SPY June calls would not be a guarantee of success but signs seem to be pointing towards higher prices.  The negative in my mind would be the next bump up in rates but that won't happen until around mid June.  So getting the SPY June calls for the next leg up could work.  That's my thought at the moment.  I'm still considering the longer term gold share calls but would like to wait until next month to purchase them.  There will be plenty of data to trade off of next week including the employment report on Friday.  So even though it's a short week there should be opportunity for those who do the right thing.  I'll be going over all the charts and indicators in the next three days to try and come up with a winning plan.  Europe was generally lower with the exception of the DAX.  Asia was mixed.  The weekend is here and it's time for a rest. 

Lower today as the geo-political news took center stage early on.  The Dow fell 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market fared better than the Dow.  The small stocks are still relative good performers here.  The TRAN was up and looks ready to crack its near term resistance.  The market remains short term overbought but I get the feeling that we are about to move higher.  I'm going to let tomorrow get out of the way and then decide what to do next week.  GE bounced back 3/8 on heavy volume.  Gold rose $15 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The ten year rate has dropped in the past couple of sessions as well.  This seems to be supportive of gold as we moved back above the $1300 level.  The XAU added 1 1/4, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was good.  Perhaps we are about to see a move higher for gold but with another increase in rates coming next month I'm not sure what to make of it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A long weekend on tap in a day so I would expect tomorrow to be a light volume affair as players head out the door early.  Today began as if the market had every reason to sell off but it came back throughout the session.  That's a bullish sign in my view.  I don't see any reason to be negative on the market at this point.  With RUT leading the way higher, the trend for now is up.  We'll get through tomorrows trading day and then take a break.  Europe and Asia were lower last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

A one day reversal back to the upside today as the Dow gained 52 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The overall market remains much stronger than the Dow and that is a plus.  Stocks got a bump after the Fed minutes were released.  We're still short term overbought for the major indices but there are no signs of a sell off on the horizon.  In fact today may have been the opportunity to buy some SPY June calls but I'm sitting things out until next week.  GE got slammed on comments from the CEO about the company.  It fell 1 1/8 on extremely heavy volume.  I'm staying away from this one for a while.  Gold was little changed again but the US dollar did move up a little.  The XAU was up a point, while GDX gained about 1/4.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just hanging around for the past week or so as the market decides which way to go out of this small consolidation.  It appears that we'll be heading higher after todays price action.  I'm on the sidelines for now as I'll let some of the time premium exit the June options.  It looks like my next trade could be the SPY June puts at some point since we are already overbought.  The timing as always will be the challenge.  But for now it's a watch and wait attitude for me.  Getting some confidence back after the latest trading debacle is one of the keys.  With a long weekend coming up there's no reason for me to take a position at the moment.  Europe and Asia were lower last night.  We'll keep an eye out on the overnight action.

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The Dow fell 178 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The small stocks are still showing good relative strength.  However there is now a bearish engulfing pattern on the RUT daily candlestick chart.  So we could be in for a pause or some sideways movement for stocks in the near term.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices remain overbought.  The VIX is still in its new parameters between 12 and 15.  We'll see how things progress going forward.  GE gained three cents on average volume.  The daily candlestick chart here has a couple of stars indicating a short term top.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed again.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My thinking right now is that I'm going to let this week pass and take it from there.  We've got a long holiday weekend coming up in the US at the end of the week.  We'll then move in to the end of the month of May.  With the technical indicators overbought and staying that way, we could see some more near term upside.  I'm still a believer that the bull market form 2009 is over but I could be proven wrong if the S&P 500 goes on to make new all time highs.  The fact that RUT has already done so is a warning sign to me that perhaps the market has another leg up.  But it hasn't happened yet.  I'll wait and see what things look like if and when we get to 2800 on the S&P.  Otherwise I'll keep an eye on things as we move through the week.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see if we get any follow through to the downside in the Dow tomorrow.    

The Dow took off to the upside today on lessening overseas trade tensions.  The most watched index soared 298 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The signal for a big move triggered by the McClellan oscillator worked out this time.  RUT is still moving up and the small stocks continue to lead the way.  All signs point to higher prices moving forward.  Sellers have disappeared for now.  The VIX remains in the 12 to 15 range and as long as it does, calls are in order.  GE was up over 1/4 and volume picked up.  Gold and the US dollar finished the day little changed.  Ditto for the XAU and GDX.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  As I looked things over this weekend what struck me the most was the negative hole that I've dug for myself in the trading account.  Poor decisions along with lousy or lack of trade management has created quite a loss to try and trade out of.  But you've got to take it one trade at a time.  It's also important to put whatever has happened, good or bad, out of your mind moving forward.  In other words you have to somehow learn to keep moving on despite what has happened.  You have to try and keep moving ahead regardless of the trading results.  Having a short memory will only help you in the trading game.  But that goes for the results, not the actual moves of the market.  For that, having a strong memory will only help you because things just simply keep repeating themselves in the market.  I don't have any solid trading ideas at the moment.  I am still considering the longer term gold share calls if we get sufficiently oversold.  I'm also going to take a look at the SPY puts again if the S&P 500 gets back to 2800.  Those are my thoughts for now.  Asia and Europe were higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments. 

Expiration Friday ended on a whimper as the Dow gained a point on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 lower.  We did get a signal yesterday in the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two days.  So we'll see what happens on Monday.  Not much else to report as the market has basically moved sideways this week.  GE lost three cents on light volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The rate on the TNX dropped but it didn't seem to help gold.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls but would like things to get a little more negative before testing out this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another losing trade this week.  It really never had a chance as it showed a loss from the start.  I think that I was married to the idea of getting the puts when I should have simply stepped aside.  We are short term overbought on the major indices but showing no signs of dropping off.  I think that as long as the VIX stays below 15 we'll be trending higher.  I don't really have any solid trading ideas right now.  Perhaps the best place for me now is the sidelines until something shows up on the radar.  Another period of trying to return to the discipline necessary for success is in order.  The markets are there for the taking.  It is the battle within oneself that needs to be won.  It is a continuing work in progress.  I'll check the charts over the weekend and try to come up with a game plan going forward.  Asia and Europe finished lower overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An up and down session as the Dow fell 54 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  RUT continues to make new all time highs and that is a good sign for the bulls.  I dumped my SPY May puts for a 90% loss.  Not much more I can say about that.  Another horribly managed trade by me.  I'll try and do better going forward.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages remain overbought and staying there.  We'll close out expiration week tomorrow.  GE was flat on the session with average volume.  Gold dropped a couple bucks while the US dollar edged higher.  The XAU and GDX were both little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  It looks like we have new parameters for the VIX, with the range now between 12 and 15.  As long as we stay in that zone, I believe the market will trend higher.  I'll be looking to try the SPY puts again if the S&P 500 gets back to 2800.  I'm still a believer that the long bull market has ended, regardless of the RUT making new all time highs.  I could be wrong.  We hit a new recent high for the yield on TNX today and the market took it in stride.  Perhaps the positive expiration bias had something to do with that.  It will be interesting to see how things progress next week.  For me it's back to the drawing board as the losses have already piled up this trading year.  I'm going to have to regroup and get my confidence back or it will be a long year.  Maybe taking a couple of steps back would not be the worst idea right now.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed last night.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 62 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  the summation index continues higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The RUT hit a new all time high and that bodes well for higher prices going forward.  Higher interest rates today did not cause a sell off like we saw yesterday.  That is another plus for stocks.  I still have my losing SPY May put trade open.  I should close it tomorrow.  GE came to life and gained 1/3 on light volume.  It closed above $15.  Gold was flat on the session as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX didn't do much on extremely light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're getting through expiration week relatively unscathed as there was no follow through to the downside after yesterdays sell off.  The market is ignoring any kind of bad news here and that's bullish.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought and are staying that way.  Down trend resistance lines were broken to the upside recently.  All signs point to higher prices going forward.  The only caveat would be the volume, which isn't confirming the recent move higher.  But you can't argue with price.  I'm about to take another trading loss in the SPY and I certainly can't be happy with that.  Looking back I should have exited when we broke the down trend line.  However as I've said before, hindsight is never wrong.  The reality is that it is way too late to save that trade.  I'll simply have to do a better job going forward.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

We got the expected drop today as the Dow fell 193 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  We did finish off of the lows for the day and RUT was actually flat.  So there's a chance that we've seen all the decline for the week already.  I did not sell my SPY May puts but probably should have.  If we see a rise on the open tomorrow, the loss will be even more than anticipated.  The data today was in line with expectations but the rise in yields is what caused some concern.  TNX approached 3.1% before backing off.  The VIX popped back up to 15 which now is resistance.  It's possible that today was simply a one day wonder.  GE was flat on the session and volume was light.  Gold got clobbered and lost over $25 to break the $1300 level.  The US dollar had a good day.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/2 on good volume.  Higher rates and a higher US dollar spell trouble for gold.  $1280 is the recent support for gold and we're ten dollars away from that.  I'm not sure it will hold if rates continue to climb.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only three days to go in the May option cycle.  I cannot hold on to these puts much longer before they simply become worthless.  Which would not be a surprise at this rate.  My timing was off and my management of the trade lousy as it has been lately.  I guess we'll see how it goes tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major stock averages.  However the strength in RUT tells me that any decline will be shallow unless RUT suddenly starts to drop.  I doubt that will happen tomorrow.  Not to mention the VIX reaching its resistance in just one day.  I doubt it will break through and continue higher tomorrow.  But you never know.  Europe was mixed and Asia generally lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Still trying to plug along higher as the Dow rose 68 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving higher.  We were to the plus side for most of the day for the major indices.  I'm still holding on to my losing SPY May put trade.  I expect to sell these for a loss by Wednesday at the latest.  The market is overdue for at least a day of decline.  RUT has stalled at resistance here and is usually the leader.  It was lower today so we'll see if the overall market follows.  It is expiration week, so the usual positive bias should show up as well.  So it could be a mixed bag this week.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold lost $7 while the US dollar was little changed.  TNX is at 3% again.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was higher today despite a gain in the market.  I'm not sure what that means.  I'm not ready to abandon my thesis that the highs for the year have been put in for the S&P 500.  The 5 wave higher pattern from the lows set in 2009 is still intact.  If we make it back to 2800 on the SPX, I'll be looking to try the SPY puts there again.  Retail sales are due out tomorrow but overall it's a light week for economic data.  Still some earnings due though.  The market remains short term overbought and needs to take a rest.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower overnight.  We'll be keeping an eye out on the overnight developments.

Overbought and staying that way as the Dow gained 91 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today, with the small caps showing a slight loss.  I'm expecting some type of near term decline with 5 days to go in the May option cycle, so I decided to hold on to my losing SPY May puts.  Perhaps I can cut the loss early next week.  Regardless, it's another losing trade in a string of many this year.  Perhaps it's time to take a serious break and reassess the trading situation.  The discipline is really lacking so far this year.  There won't be any gains with that type of behavior.  GE was off almost a dime on very light volume.  Both gold and the US dollar were slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional moves on pretty light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was a good week for the bulls as down trend lines were penetrated to the upside on good volume on a daily basis.  The trend is now up.  The only complaint would be about the weekly volume.  It wasn't impressive overall for the week.  RUT is about to set a new all time high.  That would be another good sign for the bulls.  Sellers have vanished for now.  Perhaps I'll try the SPY puts again if we get back to 2800 on the S&P 500.  Just a thought for now.  The VIX is back with a 12 handle and we haven't seen that since January.  With the usual positive expiration week bias about to take effect, higher prices going forward seem a given.  There won't be as much work to do over the weekend as my game plan is simply to dump my losing position early next week on weakness if we see any.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The Dow soared 197 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The inflation data was mild and the market was up from the start.  My SPY May puts are already dead but I'll wait to sell them most likely tomorrow.  We've broken through the down trend line resistance on the S&P, so the trend is now up.  The VIX now has a 13 handle and the previous sell signals at the 15 level have been negated.  Of course it's just another trading mistake for me again and I've had a lot of them so far this year.  The RUT is about to hit a new all time high.  We'll take out cues from there going forward.  GE gained a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold gained $8 on the futures as the US dollar dropped.  The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like clear sailing for stocks in the near term.  We are short term overbought but still rallying and that is a positive sign.  The big cap indices are far from all time highs.  However the small caps are leading the way here and if we do see new all time highs there it should bode well for the overall market.  That said I'm not going to abandon my theory of the bull market being completed just yet.  Things can and sometimes do turn on a dime.  It won't be enough to save the SPY May put trade with only six days left in the cycle.  But I won't count out lower prices again at some point this year.  Europe and Asia were both generally higher in last nights trade.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Continuing higher as the Dow climbed 182 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The S&P 500 is just about at resistance of 2700.  At this rate it looks to me like we will simply bust through there and head higher.  However this is also the spot where attempting the SPY May puts makes the most sense on a short term basis.  My open order was filled today for those puts.  But I have to say, I don't think that this trade will work out.  The nature of the VIX has changed as we are now below the 14 level and we haven't seen a sell off.  The small stocks are acting well and have been the leaders lately.  The volume has also picked up going higher.  It looks like the near term resistance in the S&P will be broken to the upside and soon.  The SPY May puts that I picked up today are already showing a loss and I may have to just dump them tomorrow.  GE was up 1/3 on OK volume.  Perhaps GE has been sold out at this point.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although we're getting short term overbought on the major indices there's no reason that we can't go higher from here.  A break of the resistance on good volume would be all we need to really get things going to the upside.  Even though I did try the SPY puts here, I would not be surprised at taking another loss.  That said, I do believe that we're at the end of the long bull market that began in 2009.  When the laggards such as GE start showing relative strength, traders are looking for something.  Oil stocks were leaders today and that is a late stage sign for a rally.  So even if this short trade doesn't work out, some trade of this nature will be profitable in the future.  The inflation data today was mild, we'll see how it goes tomorrow.  I'm in the trade now and I'll try and not let my own judgements cloud what needs to be done.  Asia was quietly mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.       

A one day reversal to the upside for the Dow as it managed a gain of 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is slowly moving up.  It looked like the market wanted to sell off today but made it back.  That is a positive.  The tone seems to have changed here as the buyers are coming in at the end of the day.  I still have my open order for the SPY May puts but am rethinking this idea on a constant basis.  We're still below the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500.  Some of the short term technical indicators here are getting closer to overbought but not there yet.  So it's a mixed bag at best.  Also time is running out on the may option cycle.  GE was up 20 cents on average volume.  Gold was little changed on the futures again as the US dollar continued higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  They did finish well off of their lows for the session.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The RUT is acting well and is generally a leader for stocks.  This implies that higher prices are coming.  The market action lately seems to be saying that as well.  I probably should be patient and wait for the S&P to reach 2700 before putting in an order for the SPY May puts.  That may be the game plan going forward.  I'll consider it more tonight.  Inflation data due out in the next couple of days.  I get the feeling that we are going to surpass the 50 day moving average tomorrow and possibly take a run at 2700 in the S&P 500.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were generally lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

The Dow gained 94 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index higher.  The small stocks continue to lead the way here and that is a positive.  The Dow and the S&P tried to clear their 50 day moving averages but closed below them.  The VIX remains below the 15 level and that could signal that we will continue higher.  That's a guess as usual but previous moves to the 15 level were met with selling.  That hasn't happened this time.  Regardless, I placed an open order for the SPY May puts.  I'm leaving it in overnight.  The volume on the rise here is unimpressive but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was very light.  Gold was little changed but the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume as well.  Light volume was the theme of the day.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are right at some near term resistance for some of the major stock averages.  What we do here could be the key to where we are going in the near term.  With only 9 days left in the May option cycle, getting the direction right will be more important since there will not be enough time to rectify a mistake.  The S&P 500 still can make a case to rise to the 2700 level before turning around again.  I've left in my open order but will be adjusting it depending on what happens tomorrow.  Another negative for this idea at this time is that the short term technical indicators are more oversold than overbought.  However the volume is so weak here that if we begin to sell off tomorrow, I may just jump on board with the puts.  We'll see what happens.  Europe and Asia were both to the upside last night.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A dramatic one day reversal to the upside as the Dow gained 332 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up but still in a sideways channel.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up as well.  The jobs numbers came in about where expected.  But it was really quite a move higher for the bulls.  the question is whether or not it is real and it could be.  The VIX closed below the 15 level and that could signal a change in the way to look at this.  If a sustainable rally is to ensue from here, the VIX will be traveling below 15.  Hasn't happened yet but you have to be open to that possibility.  That would negate my buying the SPY May puts here.  The trouble is that you don't know if that will actually happen.  If it doesn't, now is the time to purchase the puts.  As you see how the game is quite a challenge.  GE was up over 1/8 but the volume was light.  Indicators are turning back up here too.  Gold had a slight gain as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX were basically unchanged on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks continue to out perform and that's bullish.  AAPL is breaking out on good volume.  The question is, will the overall market follow?  Have stocks sold out here and now are ready to resume some kind of run higher?  It is possible.  The selling could be over for now but only time will tell on that.  The resistance line for the S&P 500 remains in place at around the 2700 level.  That could be the spot to try those SPY May puts if we get there.  However if the market just plows through that level, the decline would be over.  The RUT is generally a leader and it is holding its 50 day moving average and looks poised to go higher.  So it's possible that today signaled s change in market behavior.  We'll know soon enough as next week progresses.  I'm going to have a lot of work to do over the weekend to try and figure this out.  I also don't want to be married to the SPY put idea because after today, that thesis looks wrong.  But I'll try and figure out what to do in the next couple of days.  Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trading.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

It was a one day reversal for the Dow as we opened much lower and ended up eeking out a gain of 5 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now slightly trending lower.  The Dow got clobbered early on and was off almost 400 points during the session.  It somehow made it all the way back.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  I thought we may have a quiet trading day but I was wrong once again.  The S&P 500 made it through the 200 day moving average but came back to close above it.  Same for the Dow.  The small stocks are still showing better relative strength on the charts and that may be able to save the bulls.  However I'm still going to take my cues from the VIX.  When we get below 15 again, I'm going to have to try the SPY May puts.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Gold gained $6 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Now I do expect some movement tomorrow with the jobs number taking center stage.  I don't know what will be reported but I do know the market will move.  As I've already said, I'll wait for the VIX to drop below 15 and then try the puts.  That has been a successful strategy lately.  Now there is a chance that the VIX will simply continue lower and we get a sustained rally in the near term.  That is the risk in the trade.  Today, I get the feeling that the Market wants to hang in here and go higher.  But feelings are not worth trading on.  Technically the short term indicators are oversold, so in that regard the market could move higher.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  I've been on the sidelines since the last trading debacle and that hasn't been the worst place to be.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.  It should be quite interesting.

The Dow fell 174 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  We got the Fed out of the way with the expected no change in interest rates.  But the market just can't get anything going to the upside.  We got below 15 on the VIX and right on cue the market began to sell off.  We are getting short term oversold for the S&P but the action here is very sloppy.  Yes, I would still like to get some SPY May puts but I certainly do not want to chase things here.  That said, if we continue lower from here there's a good chance that support will not hold and we'll be dropping rather quickly.  Hasn't happened yet but the way the market is going here it would not be a surprise.  The small stocks are holding up well and that's usually a positive.  But the price action is so negative, there are no buyers to be found.  Perhaps that will change with the employment report on Friday but no one knows.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was flat on the session but did come off of its highs.  The US dollar continues a straight line up.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  these issues too came well off of their highs for the day.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as there isn't a clear signal to trade either way but the VIX signal at 15 seems to be working.  The option premiums are still rather pricey with over two weeks left in the May option cycle.  I am trying to be patient but I also do not want to miss the next sustained move either way.  But the way things are going here lately, it seems like only a matter of time before we completely roll over to the downside.  I don't expect mush out of tomorrows session as it is the precursor to the jobs report.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

Today had all the marks of a one day reversal even though the Dow finished in the red.  The Dow fell 64 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  The small stocks led the way higher and the S&P was higher after selling off early as well.  I did think about getting some SPY May calls during the session as one of my indicators was flashing a buy signal.  In retrospect that would have been the right move to make.  However I'm still convinced of lower prices overall, so I simply stepped aside.  I would not be surprised at a short term rally here but the VIX is getting closer to the 15 level.  We could get there tomorrow and that would be the signal for the SPY May puts.  It's a tough game.  GE lost a couple cents on light volume.  Gold dropped more than a dozen as the US dollar simply continues to the upside.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  These indices did have one day reversals to the upside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I have been focused on the 15 level for the VIX because it has been the threshold for where declines have began since the huge decline in the beginning of February.  Now there is a chance that we will break this level soon and stay below it for a while.  That will happen if we see a near term rally from here.  But it hasn't happened yet.  The relative strength of the small caps here is bullish.  We've got the Fed tomorrow and that could spur movement one way or the other.  We did finish on the highs for the session today and that implies higher prices tomorrow.  I'll have to think things over again tonight and go from there.  Europe and Asia were slightly higher overnight for the markets that were trading.  Most foreign exchanges were closed.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed and AAPLs earnings overnight.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index lost 148 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  I did place an order for the SPY May Puts but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving the order in overnight.  It looks like the market is not going to wait for me to head lower.  Today possibly was the last good chance to get short.  We'll see what happens as the coming days unfold.  It was a negative end to the month.  I'm hoping that we'll see some beginning of the month money flows tomorrow.  But hope is not a trading strategy.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold dropped $7 as the US dollar continues higher.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost almost 1/2.  Volume was good here as well.  I'll be remaining patient for a longer term gold share call trade that I'm thinking about.  This idea could be simply wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I do want to get short here but may have missed the last entry point today.  The daily major stock index charts still look bearish to me.  The short term technical indicators are getting oversold though.  I do not want to chase stocks lower here either.  With the Fed announcement on Wednesday, followed by the employment report on Friday, there's plenty to make things get volatile one way or the other.  We did get close to the 15 level on the VIX today and then the selling came in.  That remains a key component of my near term strategy.  I suppose if we travel back down to the 15 level, I'll simply buy some SPY puts and take it from there.  However we may not get back down there this week and the expected decline may have already begun.  The game is never easy.  I will say that if we get a short term oversold signal, I may just go the other way for a short term trade with the calls.  But you can't overstay your welcome on the long side.  Europe and Asia were both higher last night with Japan closed.  Most major foreign markets will be closed tomorrow for May day.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

It was a rather quiet, mixed session as the Dow fell 11 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was slightly better than the Dow.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up for the Dow.  The VIX got to 15.25 today and we are at the moment of truth next week for the stock market in my opinion.  If the VIX breaks the 15 level next week and stays there, we could be in for some type of sustained rally.  I don't know if that will happen but I have to be open to the possibility.  I'm still a believer in the bearish side here and I will be buying some SPY May puts on a break below 15 on the VIX.  But I also know that it could be the wrong move.  Hopefully I'll manage the trade better than I have with my other trades lately.  We'll see.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  Gold gained $6 as the US dollar was flat.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Rates dropped today with TNX closing below 3%.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Three weeks to go in the May option cycle.  I don't exactly have a clear cut signal on which way to go here yet.  I did place an order today for the SPY May puts but it wasn't filled.  I placed the order at the price I was willing to pay if the VIX got below 15.  What I don't want to do here is simply blindly follow that idea because this time it just may not work.  I'd rather see more of a better overbought technical situation on the S&P in order to place that trade.  We could it but it would be on Tuesday or Wednesday depending on how the trading week begins.  We'll have the end of the month Monday, with May starting up on Tuesday.  It will be a week that also has the Fed announcement on Wednesday followed by the employment report on Friday.  Along with other economic data along with earnings to boot.  So it will be quite a week to watch and there will be trading opportunities out there.  But which way are we going to go?  I'll be double checking all the charts and indicators over the weekend because I really think that the time is now.  There will be market movement next week.  It is possible that things will stall heading into the Fed announcement and that is something to take into consideration as well.  Plenty to ponder in the next two days.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got some buying today as the Dow gained 238 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  It was a broad rally with the overall market stronger than the Dow.  Is it the beginning of a sustained move higher?  Time will tell but I'm still in the bearish camp.  We did finish off of the highs for the day as the market was up over 300 points during the session.  I'm going to let tomorrow go by and focus on what I need to do next week if the signals come through.  We could easily simply turn back down tomorrow.  What I'd really like to see is a move up over 2700 again on the S&P 500.  That would possibly set up the SPY May put trade.  GE snapped back 1/3 on average volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold dropped a few bucks as the US dollar continues to rally.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume.  The gold shares have held up really well here despite a drop in the precious metal.  That is generally a bullish sign.  But I do think that the fundamentals at the moment aren't positive for gold.  Higher interest rates coupled with a rising US dollar are not what you'd like to have if you favor gold.  I'm still considering the longer term gold share calls though once the indicators get oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market was due for a bounce and we've got it.  Hopefully it will run into next week to set up a trade.  A light volume rise would be the ideal scenario.  Whatever the case, when the VIX hits 15 or less, I'm buying the SPY May puts.  That strategy has worked since the decline in early February.  It could possibly happen tomorrow.  So I'll be keeping an eye on things but I would really like to wait until next week to enter a trade.  Lots of time left in the May option cycle, so time is not a concern.  We'll see how it goes.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

A slight bounce today and that was to be expected.  The Dow rose 59 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher.  I do think that we'll drift higher from here in the short term and hopefully that will set things up for the SPY May puts for me.  But the market goes where it wants.  The ideal scenario in my mind would be for the VIX to return to 15 and that would be the time to try the puts.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are trying to turn back up but haven't yet.  Perhaps by tomorrow.  GE rolled over and lost 2/3 on good volume.  It did stop at the 50 day moving average.  Gold shed another $8 as the US dollar continued its climb.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm still considering the longer term gold share calls going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Simply waiting to see how the rest of the week turns out at this point.  Hoping for higher prices and the technical indicators could prove to be in my favor for that.  Todays price action does have the look of a hammer or morning star on the daily candlestick charts of the major stock indexes.  So we'll see.  Headline risk seems to have faded into the background for now.  Interest rates did continue higher today but did not have the same negative effect on stocks.  Earnings continue to be solid but there hasn't really been any positive price reaction.  I'll simply continue to monitor the indicators and price action.  Hope fully I'll make the right trading decisions this time around.  Trying to remain patient for now.  Europe and Asia were lower in last nights trading activity.  We'll keep an eye on what happens after the bell.  

The markets got pounded today as the Dow fell 424 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were just shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Well, so much for my indicators pointing towards a short term rally but I still think that is in the cards from here.  No real reason beyond the fear of higher interest rates for todays drop.  I really think that the market is about to roll over now for good.  Maybe not tomorrow or this week but soon.  If by chance we get the VIX back to 15, that would be the spot to try the SPY May puts.  Or it may be too late.  At any rate rallies, if we get them, can be shorted.  I'll be looking to get some May puts on any increase in price because the measuring objective on the patterns is a lot lower from where we are now.  We are short term oversold on the averages and a bounce is due in the next couple of sessions.  I do believe that you will be reward for taking the short side in the coming days.  Today was the warning shot.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  GE has found some life after the earnings but is getting short term overbought.  Gold gained $8 on a flight to safety.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was flat but GDX gained almost 1/3 on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Too late to get the SPY May puts?  I don't think so.  The chart patterns here have the potential for a major drop.  If we break the various necklines of the patterns in the major stock indices, prices will be much lower in a hurry.  It hasn't happened yet but the potential is there.  Could we rally from here back to new all time highs?  Not in the near future in my opinion.  Although the market does what usually everybody thinks it won't do.  We are moving into a seasonally weak time period for stocks as the sell in May crowd will be crowing.  But that doesn't mean it will happen.  One thing to be certain of here is that the tone of the market has changed and what used to work will not work anymore.  The VIX is giving off reliable signals in my mind.  If it gets to the 15 level, you can buy the index puts.  I think that is all you have to remember for now.  You can try and play the snap back rallies but the time frame must be short.  The stronger ideas from here on out will be the ones with negative implications for stock prices.  There is plenty of time in the May option cycle to make money on the short side.  Keep that in mind going forward.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index finished with a loss of 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is stalling here.  The S&P 500 was basically flat, with the small stocks taking the worst of it.  My thinking at this point is that we're going to go higher here in the short term.  I'm basing that on my own indicators.  The usual short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major stock indices but look like they want to turn back up.  Hasn't happened yet.  I'm still in the camp of attempting the SPY May puts, perhaps this week.  GE was off a couple cents and the volume was average.  Gold dropped a dozen on the futures as the US dollar continues higher.  The dollar appears to be breaking out to the upside from its recent trading range.  The XAU shed 1 7/8, while GDX fell 1/3.  Volume was average.  Perhaps I'll get a chance at the longer term gold share calls in the near future.  However the fundamentals still are negative for gold here in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The chart patterns for most stock indices still have a bearish potential depending on what happens from here.  Plenty of earnings due out this week to move things around.  Plenty of talk about TNX hitting 3% but we had a doji star today on the daily candlestick chart there, so a decline in yields here would be no surprise.  In my mind, a run to 2725 on the S&P 500 would be the set up for the SPY May puts.  Either that or a drop below 15 on the VIX.  Both at the same time would be the ideal scenario.  The market rarely cooperates.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Another downer to end the week as the Dow dropped 202 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were once again 2 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index sideways.  I'm a believer now that rallies can be shorted.  There are potential bearish chart patterns all the way around and I think that they will be fulfilled.  The weekly candlestick charts for the major stock indices have shooting stars.  The only thing that would negate things in my mind would be a stiff rally next week with a close somewhere near this weeks highs.  It could be that I've missed the chance to get the SPY May puts already.  I'll be mostly hoping for some kind of light volume rally at some point next week to try this idea.  May not happen.  GE sprang to life on its earnings and rose 1/2 on very heavy volume.  We've jumped the 50 day moving average and traded at the $15 level during the session.  Gold fell $10 on the futures as the US dollar continued its recent ascent.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on good volume.  The gold shares are holding up rather well and that is a positive.  I'm still thinking longer term calls there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Two days of decline doesn't mean we're on the cusp of anything bigger but I do not think that we're on the verge of a major rally either.  Perhaps we'll continue with the sideways channel that we're in just to frustrate both sides of the trade.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over.  Any bounce next week should probably be looked at as an opportunity to get short.  Yes I could be wrong but we're also entering the seasonal period of less market strength.  Earnings have been good so far but we haven't seen any rip roaring moves to the upside as we have in the past.  I have to think at this point that the May puts will work.  I just hope that I'm ready to manage whatever trade that I get into better than I have lately.  We'll see.  I'll go over everything again this weekend and be sure that I know exactly what I'd like to try and do next week.  Asia was mostly lower and Europe mostly higher last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 83 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  We are at a spot where things could turn around as the VIX got back to the 15 level.  There are also potential negative chart patterns on numerous indices.  But that's just it, there's potential.  Nothing has actually happened yet.  We could just as easily continue to head higher.  But I'm not a believer in that.  I'm sticking with my now long held position that the long bull market is over.  I'm looking at the SPY May puts and I do want to buy some in the near future.  The market may not wait for me though.  I am going to let tomorrows expiration pass and go from there.  GE gained 1/3 on good volume ahead of the earnings.  We're right at the 50 day moving average and the $14 level.  Tomorrows price action will tell a lot.  Gold fell five bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on lighter volume.  The gold shares have held up pretty good here.  I'm considering the longer term calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is now oversold and due to move up.  The TRAN did not make it through the resistance at 10800.  What I would like to see is the S&P 500 make it back up to the 2725 level and simply puts some puts there.  I'm not sure if the market will cooperate.  With the summation index moving higher the path of least resistance is up for now.  But if we do drift up from here, I'm going to try the May puts.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night.  We'll close out the week with options expiration tomorrow.

We bounced around today and ended the session down 38 points on the Dow.  Volume remains below average and the advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We remain short term overbought and the positive expiration bias seems to still be in effect.  The TRAN got above resistance at 10800 but then pulled back.  The VIX is back in the zone that recent sell offs have began.  I'm still in favor of the SPY May puts.  Some of the small stock indices have potential head and shoulder tops patterns, while RUT could be putting in a triple top.  But none of that is etched in stone and there's always the possibility that we'll simply march on higher.  But if my overall idea of the bull market being completed, we should see things turn lower here in a short amount of time.  GE lost a dime and the volume was light.  Approaching the 50 day moving average here.  Gold and the US dollar both had slight gains.  The XAU was up a buck and GDX had a slight fractional gain.  Volume was good.  I'm waiting for the technical indicators here to get oversold before attempting a longer term call trade in GDX.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report here.  Earnings are coming in and they've been decent so far.  Two days to go in the April option cycle and we'll see where we go after that.  We are still at the risk of any type of headline, positive or negative.  Sellers seem to have gone into hiding but that can change on a dime.  My ideal scenario would be the S&P 500 get to 2725 to attempt the May puts but the market rarely cooperates.  I'll most likely be on the sidelines until next week.  GE has earnings due Friday but I'm not going to try and guess that event.  Europe and Asia were both positive last night.  On to Thursday.  

Moving higher as the Dow gained 213 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were once again better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Most of the major stock indices have now moved above their 50 day moving averages.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  It appears that all signs point to higher prices going forward.  Are we going to new all time highs?  I may have to readjust my negative thesis here but it's too early to tell.  However it looks and feels as if the market wants to go higher.  We are short term overbought though and the VIX got below the 15 level today.  That is my threshold for stopping any rally so we'll have to see what happens tomorrow.  I did see a lot of bullishness in the media today and that is a contrary indicator.  GE was up almost 1/2 on average volume.  Plenty of resistance at the $14 level.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks were leaders today and that is a positive.  The TRAN stalled and still has not gotten trough resistance at 10800.  So there are some crosscurrents.  The S&P hasn't broken above its down trend line at 2725 but the other major averages have gotten above the down trend line resistance.  There is no reason to believe that the S&P 500 won't follow.  RUT is acting well here and is often the leader.  I'm keeping an eye on that because if it does break out to a new all time high, I will have to change my mind about where we are going.  The game is never easy and there is never a clear road map as to where we are going.  The option expiration positive bias does seem to be in place but what happens after this week is anybody's guess.  I am looking at the SPY May puts.  Asia was mostly lower and Europe higher in last nights trading.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got a pretty good move higher today as the Dow rose 212 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  the summation index is moving higher.  We were up over 300 during the session but could not hold it.  We did get above the resistance at around 2675 for the S&P 500 but fell back.  The volume here is lacking and we'll need to see a strong break of the near term resistance to start to believe in higher prices.  The down trend line for the S&P comes in at 2725 and that would be the spot to try the SPY puts if you're so inclined.  GE lost over 1/8 and the volume was average.  Earnings due on Friday.  Gold was flat today but the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on about average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Expiration week is upon us and so far the usual positive bias seems to be in effect.  I've got two ideas in mind right now going forward.  I'm looking at the SPY May puts if we get to the down trend line or reach 15 on the VIX.  We are getting close to 15 on the VIX as we speak.  That is the level that has stopped the rallies that we've seen since the extreme volatility in February.  So if my prognosis that the rally from 2009 is really over, this is the level where volatility should pick up again.  I do believe that this is the case so I will probably attempt a trade here if conditions warrant despite just booking a huge loss.  You have to believe in something and believing in yourself is not a bad way to go.  I'm also looking again at the longer term gold share calls going out to September.  Right now I'm focusing on the GDX index of gold miners.  The timing on this trade will have to wait for an oversold condition and that will probably take some time.  But it is another idea that I'm thinking about pursuing.  Looking back at today the TRAN broke above its 50 day moving average and that's a positive.  The next resistance is at 10800.  Most of the other major stock indices are right at their 50 day moving averages.  You could get more positive on things if we see a high volume break above those levels.  We had a shot today but fell back amid light volume.  Perhaps tomorrow will be different.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll keep an eye out on the overnight developments. 

It was a one day reversal to the downside today as we opened higher and closed lower.  The market bounced around and finished with a loss of 122 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has been moving up but with no conviction.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a big move within the next two trading sessions.  We'll see if that occurs on Monday.  Really low volume lately and that's a sign of no interest.  We do have a chance to break higher here and violate some down trend lines but it hasn't happened yet.  I sold my SPY April calls for a 95% loss.  What more can I say about that.  Horrible trade all the way around.  I had several chances to cut the loss but never took them.  It's back to the drawing board.  GE showed some life and was up 1/3 on average volume.  Gold was up five bucks as the US dollar closed little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are out performing here and that is a plus.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market continues to frustrate here as after the extreme volatility we've simply plodded around with not direction.  That can happen in the April option cycle and that was the case this time around.  We had some volatility in the beginning of the cycle but not like what we saw in February.  I believe what we're doing now is setting up for the next major leg up or down.  Either we're gonna head up and test the all time highs or we're gonna break the near term support and go lower.  I'm leaning towards the latter scenario.  May has a tendency to bring selling and if we continue to drift here without getting above the sown trend line in the S&P, I think we'll eventually head lower.  We've got options expiration week coming up and the continued risk of a headline event.  I do not anticipate making any trades in the near term.  I may go back and take another look at gold here but it is getting short term overbought.  However I just had one of my biggest losers to date and perhaps a step or two back would be the prudent path at this juncture.  The market won't wait for me to be ready though as the game is unforgiving.  I'll check things on the charts over the weekend and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night although Europe did finish well off the best levels on the day.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The Dow was up 293 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trying to move higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Once again we have challenged the resistance at 2670 on the S&P 500 and once again we were turned away.  A break above there on good volume would leave no resistance all the way up to 2700.  But it just doesn't happen.  The NYA is right at its down trend line from the past two and a half months and can not get through.  The VIX has rolled back down but we aren't seeing the type of gains that constitute a legitimate rally.  On the plus side the TRAN had a good session and perhaps can break above its 50 day moving average.  GE was up about twenty cents on average volume.  Gold fell back over $20 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I will most likely be dumping my SPY April calls tomorrow unless we see some kind of rip roaring 500 point rally.  I doubt that will happen.  This trade will be a big loser regardless.  Six days left in the April option cycle and I don't see myself making another trade in the next week or so.  My guess is that the sideways price action will probably continue.  We're still at the mercy of headline risk, so there is no need to put money to work immediately.  Earnings are coming up and although they're expected to be good there's always the possibility that the market will be more concerned with the guidance going forward.  The game is always a challenge.  I suppose we'll finish out the week tomorrow and take it from there.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trading action.  We'll see how things go on Friday.   

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 218 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is trying to move higher but having a tough time.  The overall market didn't drop as much as the Dow.  I'm not exactly sure exactly where we're going from here but I would not be surprised if we get the common April drift.  That would be simply sideways price action that we've seen for the past couple of weeks continuing.  We've been in a range and even though it has been volatile there hasn't been any trend one way or the other.  All the talk of a double bottom hasn't actually produced one.  We need to get above the declining tops line for a legitimate rally or below the recent support for a decent drop.  GE was back down a few cents and we're still holding the $13 level.  Volume was light.  Gold found a bid and the futures gained $10.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  Perhaps the gold shares are putting in a double bottom.  Perhaps my longer term gold share call idea was the correct one.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My SPY April calls are still big losers and I'll need to take the loss before the close on Friday at the rate things are going.  It is a frustrating trading environment at the moment, with both bull and bear sides treading water.  I'm not sure where this will all lead to be on a technical basis the indicators remain mid-range.  So we are still at the point where it could go either way.  Or do what it has been doing and going nowhere.  It appears that we are at the mercy of the next headline or political statement.  That is the game now and we'll have to adjust accordingly.  It isn't the greatest trading atmosphere but it is what we've got.  Europe was lower and Asia mostly that way as well.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  

Back and forth as we move on whatever headline comes out or whoever gives a speech.  China had nice things to say last night and the Dow rose 428 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still basically moving sideways.  It hasn't broken out one way or the other.  It is a frustrating market for traders as we cannot get things going either way.  Only eight days left for the April option cycle.  My SPY April calls are still big losers and I'm still waiting for some kind of run up to the 2700 on the S&P 500.  Wishful thinking on my part.  GE was up 1/4 on what now passes for average volume.  Holding on to the $13 level for now.  Earnings due on expiration Friday next week.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was down a bit.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The head of FB is speaking to Congress today.  The stock rallied.  That helped move the small stocks higher.  As I said yesterday, todays trading session was important given the final hour collapse on Monday.  Things have held up for now.  But tomorrow could be a completely different story.  No moves can be trusted at this point.  We're still in what I'd call a sideways malaise until proven otherwise.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are back to mid-range.  So once again things could go either way.  I'm not holding my breath one way or the other.  A plus today was that the volume picked up going higher.  But one day doesn't make a trend.  Another threat of tariffs or something else out of Washington will produce another tailspin.  We're at the mercy of the news and that is not the best way to attempt to trade.  We will start to get some earnings next week but it remains to be seen how the market will react.  Some of the small cap indices have moved past their short term down trend lines.  But none of the major averages have yet to do so.  If that would occur, things would turn bullish again.  However it hasn't happened and we'll need to see a high volume breakout for anything to be valid.  Or we turn back down again and look to see if the 200 day moving average continues to hold.  That's where we're at.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

Huge gains early but the market could not hold on.  The Dow gained 46 points today after being up over 400.  The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was light.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but the price action was definitely negative.  Not holding on to the strong positive price action is not a good sign.  It will be interesting to see where we go tomorrow.  The FB CEO will speak to Congress and it could be trouble for the market.  So could Trumps lawyers office just being raided by the FBI.  That seems to be what todays price action is implying.  So we'll see.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Trying to hold onto the $13 level here.  Gold was slightly higher as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Trading range here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My SPY April calls are big losers.  At this point I'm waiting and mostly hoping for a big upside day to sell at a loss.  Perhaps today was it because it looks like the market is about to crack.  Not a lot of economic data or earnings due out so it looks like we'll simply trade off of the headlines this week.  And that could be treacherous either way.  It has the feel of a skittish market about to fall off of a cliff.  If rallies cannot be sustained for more than a couple of days, it's trouble.  Today the rally could not even hold up for an entire session.  So I will be watching tomorrows price action with great concern.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  Let's see where things go on Tuesday. 

The week is over and it was a crazy gonzo time for the stock market.  The Dow traveled back down today and lost 572 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The employment numbers were light but it didn't matter.  The Fed chief gave a speech and it didn't matter.  The market is at the mercy of president Trump and his twitter account.  It is a headline risk environment and that is difficult to get a handle on.  More talk of tariffs on China and the market doesn't know what to expect next.  The stock market hates uncertainty.  And that's where we're at today and for the foreseeable future.  My SPY April calls are dead.  Even if we rally 1000 points next week, it will be a big losing trade.  Now that's not Trumps fault, it's mine.  I'm really going to have to take a step back to reassess what's going on here with my trading.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume is still lighter than lately.  Gold rose $8 as the US dollar dropped on the light employment data.  The XAU and GDX were both little changed and the volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has still held on here at the 200 day moving average.  But we are getting to the point that there won't be any reason to be a buyer.  If we break here it will be ugly.  There is a better chance now that will happen.  Because if the summation index goes through the zero line, the market will collapse.  It won't just be volatile up and down the way it is now.  It will just move down.  I sincerely hope that doesn't happen but I do think it will at some point in time this year.  Perhaps now is the time.  Only a sharp sustained turnaround from here can save things for the bulls.  But at the rate we're going, that isn't going to happen.  All we need is for China to increase its tariffs over the weekend and Monday morning will be a debacle.  I'm not saying that will happen but it's out there.  Or Trump will say something else that the market doesn't like.  It's not an impossible market to trade but it is seemingly beyond my capability at this point.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled back over to the downside for the major averages and they've got room to move lower.  The market has found some buyers at these levels before but time is running out for some kind of longer than two or three day rally to take effect.  Like I said yesterday when all the media is crowing about a double bottom in the S&P 500 it just ain't gonna happen.  It's the nature of the game.  I'd be wary of what's going to transpire in the market next week.  I could be wrong and often am but this time it actually could be different.  Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of the Hand Seng.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got some follow through to the upside today as the Dow rose 240 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around and that's a plus.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today though.  Plus the volume here on the rise has been weak.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned back up and are about mid-range.  So things could go either way here.  the rally could continue or we could roll back over.  Tomorrows jobs data and Fed speech should propel us one way or the other.  My SPY April calls are still big losers.  It will take a massive rally form here to cut the loss to something respectable.  Plenty of time left though.  GE was up another 1/8 or so on light volume.  No news or rumors here lately.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Looks like a trading range for the gold shares at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  It has been quite a week and I expect some fireworks tomorrow as well.  My guess is that anything can happen.  I'm looking at exiting this SPY trade by this Tuesday at the latest.  There is virtually no chance that it will ever get back to being in the money over the next two weeks.  It would take an incredible rally for that to happen and we've already had one of those this week.  The 200 day moving average has held so far for the S&P 500.  The problem is that all the talking heading in the media are saying that we've formed a double bottom in the S&P.  When everybody sees the same thing the market usually will prove them wrong.  So really anything goes from here.  The VIX appears to have rolled over here but that can turn on a dime.  It will be interesting to see how we close out the trading week.  Europe and Asia were higher last night with the exception of the Hang Seng.  We'll finish out the first week of April tomorrow.

Today was just a crazy session as the Dow had a gap lower and was down over 500 points shortly after the open.  It somehow came all the way back and then some by the close.  It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow gained 230 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now trending sideways.  It looked like the market was going to fall off a cliff and it somehow found its footing with an incredible daily rally.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus.  But the volatility is extreme here and no market moves can be trusted.  The 200 day moving averages have held for now.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up but not with any conviction.  My SPY April calls are still big losers as it would take a sustained rally to get them back to a manageable loss.  There are still over two weeks to go in the April option cycle.  However you cannot expect a straight up rise in price from here.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was lighter.  Gold and the US dollar both finished the day little changed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll be waiting on the employment report on Friday but in this environment it's hard to tell just what might happen tomorrow.  The Fed chair Powell will also be giving a speech on Friday.  So there's still plenty of time this week for some more crazy gyrations.  I think that the VIX can go either way from here but todays price action was encouraging for the bulls.  The small stocks did have a relatively better showing but one day doesn't make a trend.  That said, if the recent drop in tech has ended then the overall atmosphere would be a bit more positive.  However none of that matters if we simply turn back down tomorrow on the major stock indices.  As I've already said before we're at an important point at the 200 day moving average.  It's either going to be a double bottom or the bottom is going to fall out.  Perhaps we'll know by the weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe mostly lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back to the upside today as the Dow climbed 389 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to sideways.  No reason for the rally as there was no reason for yesterdays decline.  Volatility seems to be the environment that we've moved into for 2018.  The small stocks are laggards here and that isn't a positive sign.  We're still oversold and still trying to hold onto the 200 day moving average for the S&P 500 along with other major stock indices.  It really doesn't feel like things will hold up here.  My SPY April calls are still showing heavy losses and only a substantial rally will change that fact.  A 50% loss at this point would seem like a win.  GE was flat on the session and did come up off of its lows.  Is it worth trying the calls here?  Only if they work.  I'm on the sidelines here.  Gold dropped $11 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  The gold shares are potentially forming a trading range here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some economic data due out tomorrow along with the Fed minutes.  We'll see if those are market drivers or not.  I'd expect more fireworks on Friday with the jobs numbers and a speech by the Fed head Powell.  I'm still waiting to see what happens here with the 200 day moving average.  If it hold s here we could see a decent move higher in the near term.  There is no doubt in my mind that if we don't hold up here things will get ugly fast.  Potentially a 1000 point down day or more.  Only because the summation index is getting close to the zero line which would allow the market to fall apart.  I'm hoping for things to hold up here so that I can dump my SPY April calls with less of a loss than I'm already holding.  But the market will go where it wants.  Europe and Asia were both lower last night but not as much as the US on Monday.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

The Dow got crushed today and started off the month of April with a loss of 458 points on average volume.  It was down 750 points during the session.  The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index has rolled back down.  We could be in for a heavy decline going forward.  The S&P 500 closed below its 200 day moving average and is trying to hold on but it look like it will fail.  No news to account for todays market action and that's a worry too.  The market always knows more than we do and it appears that it knows something that we don't now.  My SPY April calls are dead and I'll have to dump them this week barring a complete reversal.  Still just under three weeks to go in the April option cycle but these options are so far out of the money now that nothing will save them.  GE lost 1/3 on good volume.  Still holding $13 for now.  I'm not looking at doing any trades here.  Gold found a bid on the stock market collapse as the futures gained almost $20.  The US dollar was little changed.  No flight to safety there.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  They did finished off of their highs.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There's still a slight chance that the SPY will hold here and produce a double bottom in the near term.  But it certainly doesn't feel like it.  More probable is that we'll get follow through selling tomorrow and much lower prices going forward.  Things could get ugly rather fast.  The summation index will start to approach the zero line and that is the area where the stock market simply falls apart.  Hasn't happened yet but it looks like that is going to be the scenario going forward.  Unless we see a rapid turnaround tomorrow and higher prices to close out the week this thing will be dropping like a rock.  Earnings won't matter because the market will be taking on a life of its own.  Stocks always drop faster than they rise.  So hold on to your hats as tomorrow will be an important session.  Asia was slightly lower and Europe was closed last night.  I'd expect to see a sea of red overseas tonight.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.