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Tuesday, May 15, 2018

We got the expected drop today as the Dow fell 193 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  We did finish off of the lows for the day and RUT was actually flat.  So there's a chance that we've seen all the decline for the week already.  I did not sell my SPY May puts but probably should have.  If we see a rise on the open tomorrow, the loss will be even more than anticipated.  The data today was in line with expectations but the rise in yields is what caused some concern.  TNX approached 3.1% before backing off.  The VIX popped back up to 15 which now is resistance.  It's possible that today was simply a one day wonder.  GE was flat on the session and volume was light.  Gold got clobbered and lost over $25 to break the $1300 level.  The US dollar had a good day.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/2 on good volume.  Higher rates and a higher US dollar spell trouble for gold.  $1280 is the recent support for gold and we're ten dollars away from that.  I'm not sure it will hold if rates continue to climb.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only three days to go in the May option cycle.  I cannot hold on to these puts much longer before they simply become worthless.  Which would not be a surprise at this rate.  My timing was off and my management of the trade lousy as it has been lately.  I guess we'll see how it goes tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major stock averages.  However the strength in RUT tells me that any decline will be shallow unless RUT suddenly starts to drop.  I doubt that will happen tomorrow.  Not to mention the VIX reaching its resistance in just one day.  I doubt it will break through and continue higher tomorrow.  But you never know.  Europe was mixed and Asia generally lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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