Wednesday, May 02, 2018
The Dow fell 174 points today on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. We got the Fed out of the way with the expected no change in interest rates. But the market just can't get anything going to the upside. We got below 15 on the VIX and right on cue the market began to sell off. We are getting short term oversold for the S&P but the action here is very sloppy. Yes, I would still like to get some SPY May puts but I certainly do not want to chase things here. That said, if we continue lower from here there's a good chance that support will not hold and we'll be dropping rather quickly. Hasn't happened yet but the way the market is going here it would not be a surprise. The small stocks are holding up well and that's usually a positive. But the price action is so negative, there are no buyers to be found. Perhaps that will change with the employment report on Friday but no one knows. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Gold was flat on the session but did come off of its highs. The US dollar continues a straight line up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume. these issues too came well off of their highs for the day. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as there isn't a clear signal to trade either way but the VIX signal at 15 seems to be working. The option premiums are still rather pricey with over two weeks left in the May option cycle. I am trying to be patient but I also do not want to miss the next sustained move either way. But the way things are going here lately, it seems like only a matter of time before we completely roll over to the downside. I don't expect mush out of tomorrows session as it is the precursor to the jobs report. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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