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Thursday, May 17, 2018

An up and down session as the Dow fell 54 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  RUT continues to make new all time highs and that is a good sign for the bulls.  I dumped my SPY May puts for a 90% loss.  Not much more I can say about that.  Another horribly managed trade by me.  I'll try and do better going forward.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages remain overbought and staying there.  We'll close out expiration week tomorrow.  GE was flat on the session with average volume.  Gold dropped a couple bucks while the US dollar edged higher.  The XAU and GDX were both little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  It looks like we have new parameters for the VIX, with the range now between 12 and 15.  As long as we stay in that zone, I believe the market will trend higher.  I'll be looking to try the SPY puts again if the S&P 500 gets back to 2800.  I'm still a believer that the long bull market has ended, regardless of the RUT making new all time highs.  I could be wrong.  We hit a new recent high for the yield on TNX today and the market took it in stride.  Perhaps the positive expiration bias had something to do with that.  It will be interesting to see how things progress next week.  For me it's back to the drawing board as the losses have already piled up this trading year.  I'm going to have to regroup and get my confidence back or it will be a long year.  Maybe taking a couple of steps back would not be the worst idea right now.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed last night.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

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