Wednesday, May 09, 2018
Continuing higher as the Dow climbed 182 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading higher. The S&P 500 is just about at resistance of 2700. At this rate it looks to me like we will simply bust through there and head higher. However this is also the spot where attempting the SPY May puts makes the most sense on a short term basis. My open order was filled today for those puts. But I have to say, I don't think that this trade will work out. The nature of the VIX has changed as we are now below the 14 level and we haven't seen a sell off. The small stocks are acting well and have been the leaders lately. The volume has also picked up going higher. It looks like the near term resistance in the S&P will be broken to the upside and soon. The SPY May puts that I picked up today are already showing a loss and I may have to just dump them tomorrow. GE was up 1/3 on OK volume. Perhaps GE has been sold out at this point. Gold and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Although we're getting short term overbought on the major indices there's no reason that we can't go higher from here. A break of the resistance on good volume would be all we need to really get things going to the upside. Even though I did try the SPY puts here, I would not be surprised at taking another loss. That said, I do believe that we're at the end of the long bull market that began in 2009. When the laggards such as GE start showing relative strength, traders are looking for something. Oil stocks were leaders today and that is a late stage sign for a rally. So even if this short trade doesn't work out, some trade of this nature will be profitable in the future. The inflation data today was mild, we'll see how it goes tomorrow. I'm in the trade now and I'll try and not let my own judgements cloud what needs to be done. Asia was quietly mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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