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Thursday, May 03, 2018

It was a one day reversal for the Dow as we opened much lower and ended up eeking out a gain of 5 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now slightly trending lower.  The Dow got clobbered early on and was off almost 400 points during the session.  It somehow made it all the way back.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  I thought we may have a quiet trading day but I was wrong once again.  The S&P 500 made it through the 200 day moving average but came back to close above it.  Same for the Dow.  The small stocks are still showing better relative strength on the charts and that may be able to save the bulls.  However I'm still going to take my cues from the VIX.  When we get below 15 again, I'm going to have to try the SPY May puts.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Gold gained $6 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Now I do expect some movement tomorrow with the jobs number taking center stage.  I don't know what will be reported but I do know the market will move.  As I've already said, I'll wait for the VIX to drop below 15 and then try the puts.  That has been a successful strategy lately.  Now there is a chance that the VIX will simply continue lower and we get a sustained rally in the near term.  That is the risk in the trade.  Today, I get the feeling that the Market wants to hang in here and go higher.  But feelings are not worth trading on.  Technically the short term indicators are oversold, so in that regard the market could move higher.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  I've been on the sidelines since the last trading debacle and that hasn't been the worst place to be.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.  It should be quite interesting.

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