Friday, May 11, 2018
Overbought and staying that way as the Dow gained 91 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is heading higher. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today, with the small caps showing a slight loss. I'm expecting some type of near term decline with 5 days to go in the May option cycle, so I decided to hold on to my losing SPY May puts. Perhaps I can cut the loss early next week. Regardless, it's another losing trade in a string of many this year. Perhaps it's time to take a serious break and reassess the trading situation. The discipline is really lacking so far this year. There won't be any gains with that type of behavior. GE was off almost a dime on very light volume. Both gold and the US dollar were slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional moves on pretty light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It was a good week for the bulls as down trend lines were penetrated to the upside on good volume on a daily basis. The trend is now up. The only complaint would be about the weekly volume. It wasn't impressive overall for the week. RUT is about to set a new all time high. That would be another good sign for the bulls. Sellers have vanished for now. Perhaps I'll try the SPY puts again if we get back to 2800 on the S&P 500. Just a thought for now. The VIX is back with a 12 handle and we haven't seen that since January. With the usual positive expiration week bias about to take effect, higher prices going forward seem a given. There won't be as much work to do over the weekend as my game plan is simply to dump my losing position early next week on weakness if we see any. Europe and Asia were generally higher last night. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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