Friday, May 25, 2018
A lower session today before a long weekend as the Dow fell 58 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is now barely moving higher. The small stocks continue to show good relative strength with the NASDAQ positive today. As long as the small guys are leading the way I have to remain bullish in the short term. Some overseas currency concerns today but I think that is simply noise. I'm leaning towards getting some SPY June calls despite the continued short term overbought condition. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold was off a bit as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. My feeling here is that the roughly two week sideways movement that we've seen is a consolidation of the rally that began in the beginning of the month. However as usual I could be wrong. The TRAN has broken out above its consolidation zone of the past four months. That is another plus for the bullish cause. The fact that the short term technical indicators are overbought doesn't mean that we can't go higher. Getting the SPY June calls would not be a guarantee of success but signs seem to be pointing towards higher prices. The negative in my mind would be the next bump up in rates but that won't happen until around mid June. So getting the SPY June calls for the next leg up could work. That's my thought at the moment. I'm still considering the longer term gold share calls but would like to wait until next month to purchase them. There will be plenty of data to trade off of next week including the employment report on Friday. So even though it's a short week there should be opportunity for those who do the right thing. I'll be going over all the charts and indicators in the next three days to try and come up with a winning plan. Europe was generally lower with the exception of the DAX. Asia was mixed. The weekend is here and it's time for a rest.
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