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Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Headline risk has returned with a vengeance as the Dow fell 391 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is starting to move sideways.  The overall market was weak but not as weak as the Dow.  Considering the huge drop today it is a comfort for the bulls that the advance/declines line wasn't at least 2 to 1 negative.  Trouble in Italy now which looks like a repeat of the Greece debacle in recent memory.  I'm sure that it will all get straightened out but where the market goes in the mean time is the question.  The VIX had a huge spike and has climbed back above 15.  That was the level that I was looking for a breech and we got it today.  I am no longer looking at the June SPY calls but that could change.  I'll wait and see how the market reacts if we get back to the 15 level on the VIX.  I'll be looking at the SPY June puts.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was pretty good.  Gold was up a few bucks and the dollar rallied as well.  Not much of a safe haven flow if you ask me.  There was however, plenty of money seeking TNX.  It broke its up trend line for yield and had its best day in quite a while.  So there is some fear out there about something.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is a shortened trading week but it doesn't feel like it after today.  We've got the end of the month coming and the jobs report on Friday.  However with the event risk from Europe taking center stage, none of that seems to matter.  The trouble when things get like this is that you really don't know where things are going to go on a day to day basis.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have gotten oversold in a hurry.  But the small stocks remain relative leaders and that's a plus.  On the other hand if there is really some kind of systemic risk out there, that won't matter.  So we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.  I will take a good look at the SPY June puts if we get some type of snap back in the next couple of days.  It looks to me like the summation index is about to roll over and if that occurs owning puts would be the proper play.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were down last night as this is a worldwide risk off scenario.  We'll see if we get any downside follow through tomorrow.  

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