Monday, May 07, 2018
The Dow gained 94 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. This should move the summation index higher. The small stocks continue to lead the way here and that is a positive. The Dow and the S&P tried to clear their 50 day moving averages but closed below them. The VIX remains below the 15 level and that could signal that we will continue higher. That's a guess as usual but previous moves to the 15 level were met with selling. That hasn't happened this time. Regardless, I placed an open order for the SPY May puts. I'm leaving it in overnight. The volume on the rise here is unimpressive but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher. GE was off a few cents and the volume was very light. Gold was little changed but the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume as well. Light volume was the theme of the day. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We are right at some near term resistance for some of the major stock averages. What we do here could be the key to where we are going in the near term. With only 9 days left in the May option cycle, getting the direction right will be more important since there will not be enough time to rectify a mistake. The S&P 500 still can make a case to rise to the 2700 level before turning around again. I've left in my open order but will be adjusting it depending on what happens tomorrow. Another negative for this idea at this time is that the short term technical indicators are more oversold than overbought. However the volume is so weak here that if we begin to sell off tomorrow, I may just jump on board with the puts. We'll see what happens. Europe and Asia were both to the upside last night. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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