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Friday, May 04, 2018

A dramatic one day reversal to the upside as the Dow gained 332 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up but still in a sideways channel.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up as well.  The jobs numbers came in about where expected.  But it was really quite a move higher for the bulls.  the question is whether or not it is real and it could be.  The VIX closed below the 15 level and that could signal a change in the way to look at this.  If a sustainable rally is to ensue from here, the VIX will be traveling below 15.  Hasn't happened yet but you have to be open to that possibility.  That would negate my buying the SPY May puts here.  The trouble is that you don't know if that will actually happen.  If it doesn't, now is the time to purchase the puts.  As you see how the game is quite a challenge.  GE was up over 1/8 but the volume was light.  Indicators are turning back up here too.  Gold had a slight gain as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX were basically unchanged on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks continue to out perform and that's bullish.  AAPL is breaking out on good volume.  The question is, will the overall market follow?  Have stocks sold out here and now are ready to resume some kind of run higher?  It is possible.  The selling could be over for now but only time will tell on that.  The resistance line for the S&P 500 remains in place at around the 2700 level.  That could be the spot to try those SPY May puts if we get there.  However if the market just plows through that level, the decline would be over.  The RUT is generally a leader and it is holding its 50 day moving average and looks poised to go higher.  So it's possible that today signaled s change in market behavior.  We'll know soon enough as next week progresses.  I'm going to have a lot of work to do over the weekend to try and figure this out.  I also don't want to be married to the SPY put idea because after today, that thesis looks wrong.  But I'll try and figure out what to do in the next couple of days.  Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trading.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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