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Tuesday, May 22, 2018

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The Dow fell 178 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The small stocks are still showing good relative strength.  However there is now a bearish engulfing pattern on the RUT daily candlestick chart.  So we could be in for a pause or some sideways movement for stocks in the near term.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices remain overbought.  The VIX is still in its new parameters between 12 and 15.  We'll see how things progress going forward.  GE gained three cents on average volume.  The daily candlestick chart here has a couple of stars indicating a short term top.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed again.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My thinking right now is that I'm going to let this week pass and take it from there.  We've got a long holiday weekend coming up in the US at the end of the week.  We'll then move in to the end of the month of May.  With the technical indicators overbought and staying that way, we could see some more near term upside.  I'm still a believer that the bull market form 2009 is over but I could be proven wrong if the S&P 500 goes on to make new all time highs.  The fact that RUT has already done so is a warning sign to me that perhaps the market has another leg up.  But it hasn't happened yet.  I'll wait and see what things look like if and when we get to 2800 on the S&P.  Otherwise I'll keep an eye on things as we move through the week.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see if we get any follow through to the downside in the Dow tomorrow.    

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