Monday, May 14, 2018
Still trying to plug along higher as the Dow rose 68 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving higher. We were to the plus side for most of the day for the major indices. I'm still holding on to my losing SPY May put trade. I expect to sell these for a loss by Wednesday at the latest. The market is overdue for at least a day of decline. RUT has stalled at resistance here and is usually the leader. It was lower today so we'll see if the overall market follows. It is expiration week, so the usual positive bias should show up as well. So it could be a mixed bag this week. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Nothing new to report here. Gold lost $7 while the US dollar was little changed. TNX is at 3% again. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today despite a gain in the market. I'm not sure what that means. I'm not ready to abandon my thesis that the highs for the year have been put in for the S&P 500. The 5 wave higher pattern from the lows set in 2009 is still intact. If we make it back to 2800 on the SPX, I'll be looking to try the SPY puts there again. Retail sales are due out tomorrow but overall it's a light week for economic data. Still some earnings due though. The market remains short term overbought and needs to take a rest. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower overnight. We'll be keeping an eye out on the overnight developments.
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