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Thursday, April 26, 2018

We got some buying today as the Dow gained 238 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  It was a broad rally with the overall market stronger than the Dow.  Is it the beginning of a sustained move higher?  Time will tell but I'm still in the bearish camp.  We did finish off of the highs for the day as the market was up over 300 points during the session.  I'm going to let tomorrow go by and focus on what I need to do next week if the signals come through.  We could easily simply turn back down tomorrow.  What I'd really like to see is a move up over 2700 again on the S&P 500.  That would possibly set up the SPY May put trade.  GE snapped back 1/3 on average volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold dropped a few bucks as the US dollar continues to rally.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume.  The gold shares have held up really well here despite a drop in the precious metal.  That is generally a bullish sign.  But I do think that the fundamentals at the moment aren't positive for gold.  Higher interest rates coupled with a rising US dollar are not what you'd like to have if you favor gold.  I'm still considering the longer term gold share calls though once the indicators get oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market was due for a bounce and we've got it.  Hopefully it will run into next week to set up a trade.  A light volume rise would be the ideal scenario.  Whatever the case, when the VIX hits 15 or less, I'm buying the SPY May puts.  That strategy has worked since the decline in early February.  It could possibly happen tomorrow.  So I'll be keeping an eye on things but I would really like to wait until next week to enter a trade.  Lots of time left in the May option cycle, so time is not a concern.  We'll see how it goes.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

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