Wednesday, April 18, 2018
We bounced around today and ended the session down 38 points on the Dow. Volume remains below average and the advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to the upside. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. We remain short term overbought and the positive expiration bias seems to still be in effect. The TRAN got above resistance at 10800 but then pulled back. The VIX is back in the zone that recent sell offs have began. I'm still in favor of the SPY May puts. Some of the small stock indices have potential head and shoulder tops patterns, while RUT could be putting in a triple top. But none of that is etched in stone and there's always the possibility that we'll simply march on higher. But if my overall idea of the bull market being completed, we should see things turn lower here in a short amount of time. GE lost a dime and the volume was light. Approaching the 50 day moving average here. Gold and the US dollar both had slight gains. The XAU was up a buck and GDX had a slight fractional gain. Volume was good. I'm waiting for the technical indicators here to get oversold before attempting a longer term call trade in GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much else to report here. Earnings are coming in and they've been decent so far. Two days to go in the April option cycle and we'll see where we go after that. We are still at the risk of any type of headline, positive or negative. Sellers seem to have gone into hiding but that can change on a dime. My ideal scenario would be the S&P 500 get to 2725 to attempt the May puts but the market rarely cooperates. I'll most likely be on the sidelines until next week. GE has earnings due Friday but I'm not going to try and guess that event. Europe and Asia were both positive last night. On to Thursday.
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