Friday, April 20, 2018
Another downer to end the week as the Dow dropped 202 points on average volume. The advance/declines were once again 2 to 1 negative. This should move the summation index sideways. I'm a believer now that rallies can be shorted. There are potential bearish chart patterns all the way around and I think that they will be fulfilled. The weekly candlestick charts for the major stock indices have shooting stars. The only thing that would negate things in my mind would be a stiff rally next week with a close somewhere near this weeks highs. It could be that I've missed the chance to get the SPY May puts already. I'll be mostly hoping for some kind of light volume rally at some point next week to try this idea. May not happen. GE sprang to life on its earnings and rose 1/2 on very heavy volume. We've jumped the 50 day moving average and traded at the $15 level during the session. Gold fell $10 on the futures as the US dollar continued its recent ascent. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on good volume. The gold shares are holding up rather well and that is a positive. I'm still thinking longer term calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Two days of decline doesn't mean we're on the cusp of anything bigger but I do not think that we're on the verge of a major rally either. Perhaps we'll continue with the sideways channel that we're in just to frustrate both sides of the trade. The short term technical indicators have rolled over. Any bounce next week should probably be looked at as an opportunity to get short. Yes I could be wrong but we're also entering the seasonal period of less market strength. Earnings have been good so far but we haven't seen any rip roaring moves to the upside as we have in the past. I have to think at this point that the May puts will work. I just hope that I'm ready to manage whatever trade that I get into better than I have lately. We'll see. I'll go over everything again this weekend and be sure that I know exactly what I'd like to try and do next week. Asia was mostly lower and Europe mostly higher last night. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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