Monday, April 02, 2018
The Dow got crushed today and started off the month of April with a loss of 458 points on average volume. It was down 750 points during the session. The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. The summation index has rolled back down. We could be in for a heavy decline going forward. The S&P 500 closed below its 200 day moving average and is trying to hold on but it look like it will fail. No news to account for todays market action and that's a worry too. The market always knows more than we do and it appears that it knows something that we don't now. My SPY April calls are dead and I'll have to dump them this week barring a complete reversal. Still just under three weeks to go in the April option cycle but these options are so far out of the money now that nothing will save them. GE lost 1/3 on good volume. Still holding $13 for now. I'm not looking at doing any trades here. Gold found a bid on the stock market collapse as the futures gained almost $20. The US dollar was little changed. No flight to safety there. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume. They did finished off of their highs. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There's still a slight chance that the SPY will hold here and produce a double bottom in the near term. But it certainly doesn't feel like it. More probable is that we'll get follow through selling tomorrow and much lower prices going forward. Things could get ugly rather fast. The summation index will start to approach the zero line and that is the area where the stock market simply falls apart. Hasn't happened yet but it looks like that is going to be the scenario going forward. Unless we see a rapid turnaround tomorrow and higher prices to close out the week this thing will be dropping like a rock. Earnings won't matter because the market will be taking on a life of its own. Stocks always drop faster than they rise. So hold on to your hats as tomorrow will be an important session. Asia was slightly lower and Europe was closed last night. I'd expect to see a sea of red overseas tonight. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
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