Pageviews past week

Monday, April 30, 2018

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index lost 148 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  I did place an order for the SPY May Puts but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving the order in overnight.  It looks like the market is not going to wait for me to head lower.  Today possibly was the last good chance to get short.  We'll see what happens as the coming days unfold.  It was a negative end to the month.  I'm hoping that we'll see some beginning of the month money flows tomorrow.  But hope is not a trading strategy.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold dropped $7 as the US dollar continues higher.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost almost 1/2.  Volume was good here as well.  I'll be remaining patient for a longer term gold share call trade that I'm thinking about.  This idea could be simply wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I do want to get short here but may have missed the last entry point today.  The daily major stock index charts still look bearish to me.  The short term technical indicators are getting oversold though.  I do not want to chase stocks lower here either.  With the Fed announcement on Wednesday, followed by the employment report on Friday, there's plenty to make things get volatile one way or the other.  We did get close to the 15 level on the VIX today and then the selling came in.  That remains a key component of my near term strategy.  I suppose if we travel back down to the 15 level, I'll simply buy some SPY puts and take it from there.  However we may not get back down there this week and the expected decline may have already begun.  The game is never easy.  I will say that if we get a short term oversold signal, I may just go the other way for a short term trade with the calls.  But you can't overstay your welcome on the long side.  Europe and Asia were both higher last night with Japan closed.  Most major foreign markets will be closed tomorrow for May day.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

No comments: