Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Moving higher as the Dow gained 213 points on light volume. The advance/declines were once again better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. Most of the major stock indices have now moved above their 50 day moving averages. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. It appears that all signs point to higher prices going forward. Are we going to new all time highs? I may have to readjust my negative thesis here but it's too early to tell. However it looks and feels as if the market wants to go higher. We are short term overbought though and the VIX got below the 15 level today. That is my threshold for stopping any rally so we'll have to see what happens tomorrow. I did see a lot of bullishness in the media today and that is a contrary indicator. GE was up almost 1/2 on average volume. Plenty of resistance at the $14 level. Gold and the US dollar were little changed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The small stocks were leaders today and that is a positive. The TRAN stalled and still has not gotten trough resistance at 10800. So there are some crosscurrents. The S&P hasn't broken above its down trend line at 2725 but the other major averages have gotten above the down trend line resistance. There is no reason to believe that the S&P 500 won't follow. RUT is acting well here and is often the leader. I'm keeping an eye on that because if it does break out to a new all time high, I will have to change my mind about where we are going. The game is never easy and there is never a clear road map as to where we are going. The option expiration positive bias does seem to be in place but what happens after this week is anybody's guess. I am looking at the SPY May puts. Asia was mostly lower and Europe higher in last nights trading. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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