Tuesday, April 03, 2018
Back to the upside today as the Dow climbed 389 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index back to sideways. No reason for the rally as there was no reason for yesterdays decline. Volatility seems to be the environment that we've moved into for 2018. The small stocks are laggards here and that isn't a positive sign. We're still oversold and still trying to hold onto the 200 day moving average for the S&P 500 along with other major stock indices. It really doesn't feel like things will hold up here. My SPY April calls are still showing heavy losses and only a substantial rally will change that fact. A 50% loss at this point would seem like a win. GE was flat on the session and did come up off of its lows. Is it worth trying the calls here? Only if they work. I'm on the sidelines here. Gold dropped $11 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume. The gold shares are potentially forming a trading range here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Some economic data due out tomorrow along with the Fed minutes. We'll see if those are market drivers or not. I'd expect more fireworks on Friday with the jobs numbers and a speech by the Fed head Powell. I'm still waiting to see what happens here with the 200 day moving average. If it hold s here we could see a decent move higher in the near term. There is no doubt in my mind that if we don't hold up here things will get ugly fast. Potentially a 1000 point down day or more. Only because the summation index is getting close to the zero line which would allow the market to fall apart. I'm hoping for things to hold up here so that I can dump my SPY April calls with less of a loss than I'm already holding. But the market will go where it wants. Europe and Asia were both lower last night but not as much as the US on Monday. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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