Friday, June 01, 2018
The back and forth continued today as the Dow rose 219 points on average volume. The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index back up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the small stocks continue to lead the way. The VIX is now back below 14 and all signs point to a bullish case for higher prices going forward. The employment report was a little better than expected and the market was higher from the get go. I did get stopped out of my SPY June put trade when the market opened. It was a 25% loss and I can live with that. The timing going in wasn't as good as it could be and the subsequent decline was shallow. There's still two weeks left in the June option cycle and I may try this trade again despite all the bullishness. But I don't see a clear signal at the moment. GE was up a couple cents on average volume. Gold lost $7 as the US dollar edged higher. Rates ticked up a bit as well but did not have a noticeable effect on gold and the dollar today. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on average volume. I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite another trading loss. I'm taking solace in the fact that at least this time I managed the trade correctly. There really wasn't any chance to take a decent profit for the duration of that trade. I'll simply have to wait and see what my next decision will be. The short term indicators on the S&P 500 are making there way back to overbought levels. The Bollinger bands are starting to constrict which means that some type of move is in the works. Now the question is will this take place during the June option cycle or not? We've still got the Fed meeting before expiration and now the US/North Korea summit appears to be on track as well. Geo-political concerns from Italy/Europe have been put aside for a day. As long as the small stocks are leading the way it is hard to get too concerned about a substantial decline. However with the overbought short term readings in most of the major averages, it's also hard to try and trade this from the long side. I'll have to wait for what I deem to be the next signal and take it from there. I also may just sit things out for a while because we are on the cusp of summer and the potential doldrums could be coming up. I will look things over this weekend and decide what to do or not do going forward. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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