Friday, June 22, 2018
A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 119 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to moving sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ negative. This is a change from the recent market activity. I'm not sure why the volume was so heavy today. Maybe summer vacations are starting early. My SPY July calls are still only showing a very small profit even after todays gains. The VIX retreated today but the tone of the market is in the process of changing in my opinion. The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the small stocks as well. I now don't think that the call buying strategy here is appropriate. I really should not hold on to this position too long despite the long length of time left in this option cycle. GE got a bounce and was up almost 1/3 on good volume. It's trying to hold on to its last line of support. Gold was just slightly higher despite weakness in the US dollar. The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/4. Volume was average. The weekly Bollinger bands for GDX are the tightest that they have been in years. When this breaks out you can probably just jump on board because the move should be worthwhile. The question is which way is it going to go? I'm still leaning towards the bullish cause and am still keeping an eye on the longer term gold share calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So I have the SPY calls here and the market just isn't acting as well as it has in the recent past. The small stocks are not the leaders here lately. Perhaps that will change next week. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are moving lower and are not completely oversold as of yet. I'll need to see then turn around to fell better about this trade. We did get some buying today as expected but the market dropped off rapidly in the final half hour. That isn't a positive. I suppose I'll hope for some early strength next week and most likely get out of this trade. I do have a stop loss order in if we simply start the new week lower. The trading is never easy. What looked like a good idea yesterday when I took this SPY call position, doesn't look as promising today. I'll look things over again this weekend and take it from there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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