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Thursday, June 28, 2018

We got a much needed bounce today but the Dow did finish off of its best levels with selling in the final hour.  The Dow rose 98 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  However with the summation index heading down, the path of least resistance is lower.  The VIX is still above 15.  I think that I will let the July 4th holiday pass next week before I consider attempting another trade.  Markets could be thin next week as traders may take the whole week off.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold.  I suppose the ideal situation would be a light volume rise to the halfway point and a roll over there.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was off $6.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've had negative prices activity for the past couple of weeks.  Now it could be a set up for the usual summer rally or it could be the beginning of a corrective phase.  We had not seen any sustained selling for a while and now we have had it.  So what happens from here will have a direct impact on what goes on this summer in my opinion.  Looking back on the first half of the year, my trading has been abysmal and I am currently in the middle of a prolonged losing streak.  I have made a trading tactics adjustment with the stop loss orders but it hasn't really helped except with limiting the losses.  I've dug myself quite a hole to get out of but there is still plenty of time this year to turn things around.  We'll see.  Asia and Europe were lower last night.  We'll close out the week, the month and the first half of the year tomorrow.

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