Thursday, June 14, 2018
More bouncing around today as the Dow dropped 25 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index has now turned sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. As long as that is the situation I'm expecting higher prices going forward. The S&P 500 has basically moved sideways for the last week. We'll wait and see which way it breaks out. Odds favor moving up despite the chronic short term overbought condition. No matter the news, the market always seems to have buyers. Any selling is for a day or two at the most. Until that changes, the trend is up. GE was off 1/4 and volume picked up. GE did not make it up through its 50 day moving average. Gold rose about $5 on the futures despite the US dollar having a huge gain today. The ECB meeting today had a dovish tone and the Argentine currency is crashing. Perhaps we saw some flight to safety moves today. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves higher today on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The positive market bias was in full swing this week as the market had numerous reasons to sell off but did not. Some of the small stock indices set new all time highs today. Money continues to flow into US stocks. You cannot fight that. The VIX is around the 12 level. Volatility has shrunk and we about to roll into summer. It appears that the summer rally started in the beginning of June. How long it lasts, who knows? We are going to roll into the July option cycle on Monday. There is an extra week in that cycle so the premiums are expensive. I will probably remain on the sidelines until July but we'll see where the market takes us. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the option expiration as we close out the week tomorrow.
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