Tuesday is to the downside as the Dow fell 410 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The market was up in the morning but fell back after noon.  We did close out the month of March and it was quite a month to be sure.  We witnessed one of the fastest, steepest declines in market history.  We'll be cleaning up after this for a while I assume.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 could be stalling here and about to roll over.  The pandemic virus remains the main headline as economic data is still taking a back seat.  I can't think that the negative jobs data due later this week will be a help for the bulls but they ignored the data last week.  We are still in a fragile market environment in my view.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains good.  Gold was sold off today in a big way.  The futures here lost $45.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  I have no explanation for the drop in the precious metal.  But it does emphasize the kind of uncertainty around all assets that is now the norm.  The XAU only fell around 1 1/2, while GDX shed 7/8.  Volume was lighter than it has been.  Not sure why the gold shares held up as good as they did.  They have rolled over in price but not on the indicators as of yet.  I have placed orders for the GDX calls in April and May.  I'm leaving them out there but could change my mind tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was slightly lower today but the technical indicators are not yet oversold.  It's hard for me to gauge what is going on here, with the readings so out of the usual realm.  Increased volatility will most likely be the norm though.  I suppose the question here is whether the market is taking a small sideways pause here or are we about to roll over?  We'll know by the end of the week, I'm pretty sure of that.  I'll still wait to see if we go higher before attempting the SPY April puts.  We'll see if gold continues to drop tomorrow as well.  Normally I'd say that we'll see some beginning of the month money flows.  But right now everything is still in question.  Asia was generally lower with Europe up in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

The week begins to the upside with the Dow gaining 688 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  It seems the worst has past for now with regards to the market sell off.  The S&P 500 is now just about at the near term down trend line that now comes in below the 2700 level.  Another day like today and we'll be through it.  The SPY April options remain pricey with less than three weeks to go in them.  We are also not completely overbought on the short term indicators there.  The V shaped recovery remains intact for now.  GE was up 1/4 on good volume.  Gold was off $16 on the futures as the US dollar was higher to begin the week.  The XAU was off 1 3/8, while GDX shed almost 1/2.  The gold shares did come up off of their lows for the session.  Volume was good.  I did place an open order for the GDX April calls again.  It will take more of a drop to get filled.  The short term technical indicators here remain overbought so I am not in a hurry for this trade.  I'm also looking out to the May GDX calls as well.  But I probably need to be patient here.  Once the technical indicators roll over and get oversold would be the best spot to try the GDX calls again.  The volatility here remains on the increase as well which doesn't help the timing of things.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today and the market rallied.  That is finally what I consider more normal activity.  If this continues the VIX should drop to oversold and the market can continue higher in the near term.  Of course we don't know what the market will do.  If we make it through the near term down trend line, the S&P could move up to the 2800 level which would be a 50% retracement of the decline.  That would certainly be an ideal spot to try the SPY puts.  But of course we don't know exactly where we are going from here.  The pandemic virus is still the main driver of the news cycle.  We'll get the jobs report on Friday and that won't have any good news if the weekly jobless claims are any indication.  I'd like to try the GDX calls again at some point in the future.  Being patient on the technical indicators will be the challenge here.  Trying the SPY April puts is the other idea on my radar at the moment.  Patience may be needed.  Asia was generally lower with Europe higher to begin the week overseas.  We'll close out the month of March tomorrow. 

A down day to end a pretty good week for stocks.  The Dow fell 915 points on heavy volume but not as heavy as we've seen lately.  The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues higher.  The short term technical indicators look like they want to turn back down here for the S&P.  A retest of the recent low perhaps in the near future?  Or will the V shaped recovery carry on?  I'm still looking at the 2700 mark for the down trend line as an area to get some SPY April puts.  However if the decline simply continues from here, I won't get the chance.  No new news today as the US stimulus package was passed by the house and the president will be signing it ASAP.  The market did fall apart in the final half hour.  We'll see if the bounce is over on Monday.  GE was off 1/2 on good volume.  Gold was off around $25 on the futures and the US dollar continued lower as well.  The XAU dropped 6 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/2.  Volume was good.  The short term technical indicators for GDX are starting to roll over now.  The steep short term up trend line is still intact though.  The question is whether we are seeing a consolidation before we move higher or the beginning of some type of decline.  I sold my GDX April calls but was a day late.  The first batch that I purchased had a gain of 60%.  The second batch had a gain of 475%.  The gains could have been around twice that had I sold them yesterday at the proper time.  But hindsight doesn't work in the heat of the battle.  I'm still a believer in the gold shares here and will try this trade again either before the April option expiration or go out to the May contract.  Let me stress again the importance of being nimble in the fast trading conditions that we are currently in.  Mentally I'm disappointed in the closed out trade today.  Even with substantial profits, the feeling isn't a good one.  The trade should have been managed better despite the gain.  It isn't really about the money, it's about doing the right thing under whatever the market conditions are in real time.  The entry on the trade was good for one half and great for the other.  The exit was lame all the way around.  One thing about the game though is that once it over it really doesn't matter.  You've got to keep moving forward.  The VIX remains elevated and the technicals are still mid-range.  The weekly indicators here remain extremely overbought.  That should eventually lead to some decent upside for stocks.  The weekly candlestick charts for the major averages show bullish engulfing patterns which is encouraging for the long side.  But that could all change next week of course.  However with the extreme readings that we just witnessed on many technical indicators, I'd say the odds now favor sideways to up rather than down.  I could be wrong.  Asia higher and Europe lower to finish the trading week overseas.  Plenty to think about over the weekend.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

The Dow continued to rise from the depths of despair and gained 1351 points today on the now usual crazy volume.  The advance/declines were about 7 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving up.  I had expected a decline today and it didn't happen.  Perhaps a V shaped low is forming for stocks.  No real news one way or the other today.  The short term indicators for the S&P are now moving higher.  There is a down trend line that comes in at 2700.  We are almost there.  That would be the spot for this short term rally to stall and a spot to try the SPY April puts if you're so inclined.  They remain pretty expensive but might be worth the risk.  I'll consider it tonight.  GE was up 1/2 on heavy volume.  Gold was up $11 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  GDX is stalling at its 50 and 200 day moving averages.  It could start to head lower here but the short term technical indicators are not completely overbought yet.  I still have a solid profit on my GDX April calls.  A rollover here would be a definite cause for concern regarding this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains at an elevated level despite the rise in stocks.  This indicator is now hard for me to figure out.  The short term technical indicators are now mid-range here, so it could go either way.  We've gotten quite a bounce in stocks the past three days with the S&P almost back to its 200 week moving average.  But I don't know what will be the catalyst to keep on going.  The US government has done about all it can do for now.  The pandemic virus isn't going to all of a sudden disappear.  The economic data that will be coming out for March will be dismal.  There is no timetable for the stay at home orders to be lifted.  So I suppose we'll enjoy the rally while it lasts.  So I think that 2700 will be the key short term level to keep an eye on.  Everyone will be watching that because it is so obvious on the chart.  My take on what's going on isn't as solid as it was and that has to be taken into consideration as well.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow. 

It seems like forever but we actually saw the market go up two days in a row.  The Dow rose 495 points on the now normal crazy volume.  The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index at least sideways and halt the drop on this indicator at around -3000.  The rescue deal finally got finished in Congress.  What other good news is out there?  Tomorrows unemployment claims will be sky high and I'd expect the market to drop.  The past three days on the daily charts also show the classic 1-2-3 bounce from an extremely oversold condition.  The fact that we closed today over 50% lower than the high tells me that we'll be lower tomorrow.  My guess is that it will be the beginning of the fifth and final wave down in stocks for now.  If for some reason none of this occurs, I would then have to change my thesis of what's going on here.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have turned back up but they look like they could simply roll over again.  We'll know more tomorrow.  GE was up 1/2 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold fell back after 2 giant days to the upside.  The precious metal futures dropped around $30.  The US dollar was lower today as well.  The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX added 1 1/8.  Volume was good here.  The gold shares also pulled back near the close.  Not close to overbought yet on the technical indicators here but also could see a roll over if the overall market starts to drop again.  It is encouraging to see the gold shares rise with a drop in the price of gold.  But the markets are so disjointed at this time that you can't really read too much into anything.  Plenty of time to go on my GDX April calls but I do not want to hold on to this trade until expiration.  I'm waiting for GDX to get overbought and we are not there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was slightly higher today and the indicators are starting to turn back up.  If they do it will be look out below again.  Perhaps we'll make it down to the 2100-200 level on the S&P 500.  But I'm getting ahead of myself here as the market will let us know what it's doing.  The pandemic virus isn't just going to go away and with more testing there will be more cases.  But a lot of money is being throw out there by the US government and it will have to find a home at some point.  Getting the summation index turned around is a start but that doesn't mean that we won't close lower than we have down the road.  I doubt that we are going to see a V shape recovery for stocks.  Europe and Asia continued to rally in yesterdays trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A huge bounce today as the Dow gained 2113 points on crazy heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 11 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower but it is now at least trying to turn around.  I think that it will be successful as we are almost at the -3000 level for the summation index and that is as low as I have ever seen it get.  That doesn't mean the decline is over.  In fact if the 5 wave pattern on the daily S&P chart comes to fruition, this is the 4th wave up and we still have the 5th wave down to go.  That would coincide with the 2100-2000 support level on the S&P.  Now that's all just conjecture on my part but those are some of the patterns that I'm looking at.  Still waiting on a stimulus package from Washington but that would probably be when the selling begins again after an initial rise.  What good news will be left?  Just a guess on my part.  The technical indicators for the major indices remain oversold even with todays rise.  GE was up 7/8 on heavy volume.  Gold soared again but did finish off of the highs.  The futures there climbed around $90.  That's right, $90 in a day for the precious metal as now everyone is plowing into that trade.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained over 11 1/2, while GDX added 3 1/4.  Volume was heavy.  GDX again sold off in the final half hour as margin calls and the like still need to be taken care of.  So it isn't as though there is an all clear ahead for the gold shares.  My GDX April calls are back to showing a nice profit.  The short term technical indicators have yet to reach the overbought level but I will try and be very careful with this trade.  Things can turn on a dime in this type of environment and I don't like the constant late day selling here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX had a huge drop on the rally today only to come all the way back to finish positive on the session.  That really doesn't figure with a market up over 2000 points.  I do not know what is going on there.  It is either a hammer that leads to more selling volatility or a hanging man which would be bullish.  We'll know as time moves forward.  The pandemic virus isn't going anywhere soon.  So there's still that to deal with.  Jobless claims on Thursday should be huge and that really can't be viewed as a positive going forward.  So today was probably just a relief rally with short covering.  I expect the market to trend lower to sideways because we have yet to even begin to see the dramatic collapse in earnings that's about to take place.  Not to mention all the corporate debt that will be defaulted on in the coming months despite the Fed saying they will purchase some.  So there won't be any quick turnaround for a while in my view.  But that's just a guess as usual.  It's only Tuesday and it seems like we've had a week go by already.  Interesting times.  Europe and Asia were higher with big gains on a bounce as well.  We'll see if we get any follow through there tomorrow.

We begin the week like we ended last week, to the downside.  The Dow fell 582 points on the same insane volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Oversold, staying that way and you just have to wonder how long this will go on.  We are getting near the next support level of 2100-2000 on the S&P 500 but we aren't there yet.  That doesn't mean that we'll simply turn around and head back up if we get there.  It means maybe we'll just stop going down and move sideways.  The liquidity problems are not just going to go away.  The Fed today said it will print however much money it takes to get through this.  Even that doesn't seem to matter anymore.  It's a panic without any end in sight for now.  GE lost another 3/8 on good volume.  Gold finally took off to the upside.  The precious metal futures exploded around $70 higher.  The US dollar was just slightly lower.  The gold shares were higher but not by much.  The XAU added 4 1/2, while GDX gained 1 1/3.  Volume was good.  GDX again sold off pretty good in the final half hour.  We saw this last Thursday as well.  Whatever can get sold to satisfy margin calls, debts etc. is dumped before the close of the day.  When gold rallies a lot like today and the gold shares don't, that's not a good sign for the bulls.  My GDX April calls are still showing a profit but it isn't what it once was and premium is getting sucked out of them as well.  Even though there is plenty of time left here, I'm not so sure how long I want to hold them.  It is also very interesting that gold decided to move higher the day after option expiration.  Those market makers are some group.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as the GDX trade just cannot get going even when gold rallies.  The VIX moved lower today and has plenty of room on the indicators to go lower.  But the market usually goes up on a lower VIX.  Today stocks just sold of less than then they have been and that is not a good sign.  Perhaps if we get the next round of stimulus from Congress sometime this week we'll see a day of gains.  Otherwise it will simply be more selling down into support at 2100-2000 and we'll have to wait and see what happens there.  We'll have to hope it holds because the next support for the S&P comes in 500 points lower.  Might happen.  Asia was lower with the exception of Japan.  Europe was down too.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Another crazy day to cap off a crazy week.  The Dow fell 913 points on insane volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We had a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower.  Overnight big gains in the futures markets didn't hold.  The technical condition of the market hasn't changed as we're oversold and staying that way.  The pandemic virus remains out of control, with nations closing down.  There seems to be no end to the bad news there.  Liquidity remains an issue for markets as everything continues to be sold.  It looks like we're heading down to the 2100-2000 support level on the S&P 500.  Probably will get there next week at this rate.  GE finished little changed on heavy volume.  Gold rallied overnight but couldn't hold it as the futures only gained around $8.  It was up over $30 overnight.  The US dollar had a slight decline and is the hiding place of choice.  That puts a damper on gold.  The XAU fell 4 3/4, while GDX shed 3/4.  Volume was average.  One day downside reversals here as well.  My GDX April calls are somehow still showing a profit thanks to the extreme volatility that's built into the options.  There's a month to go with these and it has already been quite a ride.  I've seen good profits disappear and I'm not sure how much longer I'll hold on.  Mentally I'm tired.  Did not sleep well and the volatility during the trading session takes it toll.  Now we usually see some volatility in regular trading.  We just don't see it constantly to an extreme as we are now.  There's no end in sight for a let up either with the VIX way overbought and staying that way.  I do think that the sidelines aren't a bad place to be but I'm not there.  What to expect next week?  More of the same as the selling doesn't appear to be able to let up just yet.  We tried to put in a short term bottom on Wednesday and Thursday but todays price action negates that.  A lot of index charts appear to have a 5 wave pattern on them.  We are about to see the 5th and final wave lower next week if my view is correct.  That should take us to near term S&P support and would be the place to try the SPY April calls if you're so inclined.  Depending on the premiums of course.  They will still be out of whack and you'd better be a nimble trader to give that idea a try.  I may or may not depending on how I feel at the time.  I'm still wrapped up in the GDX call trade.  Europe and Asia rallied to close the week but Mondays open should be just the opposite.  I'll try and take a break this weekend.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

It was a fairly calm day today relatively speaking as the Dow gained 188 on the still very extreme volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues down.  The market is trying to put in some kind of short term bottom here, not sure if it will be successful.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold.  Nothing has changed regarding the China virus and market around the world remain extremely fragile.  Volatility remains the only constant.  Not sure what to expect with expiration Friday tomorrow.  GE was off 1/8 on heavy volume.  Gold still can't find any traction here.  The futures dropping $6 as the US dollar simply explodes higher.  The dollar is the haven of choice for now with gold being sold to pay for other losses.  The gold shares were all over the place.  The XAU finished with a gain of 1 1/3, while GDX added 1 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  The gold shares had very nice gains for some reason until the final half hour.  GDX dropped 3 points in that time span.  We have seen a lot of late day volatility in GDX for the past couple of weeks.  Not sure what that means but the gold shares have held up rather well considering the recent decline in the metal itself.  That's usually bullish but in this market it's hard to figure anything out.  I'm still holding on to my GDX April calls but will seriously consider dumping them tomorrow despite having four weeks left to go.  If gold breaks its near term support I probably should exit the trade.  Easier said than done.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX remains elevated and the futures did set a new all time high record this week.  Charts are blown out, fear is rampant and the usual things that work aren't.  I'll be contemplating moving to the sidelines before the weekend.  The SPY option premiums remain out of whack.  Today all the puts and calls for March lost money despite the price action.  The time and volatility premium just gets sucked out near the end.  There is so much premium in the April contracts that it is too expensive for my taste to attempt anything there at the moment.  Can't say where all this is going to end but there is support for the S&P at 2000-2100.  Not there yet.  I guess we'll see how the week finishes and take it from there.  Asia sold off, while Europe was generally higher.  We'll close out another wild week tomorrow. 

The crazy volatility continues as the Dow fell 1338 on the now usual insane volume.  The advance/declines were 15 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We did have a last hour rally that almost cut the loss in half.  But the selling remains in all instruments as liquidity remains an issue for the markets.  The declines from the top of last month reached over 30% today.  There is no let up in China virus cases and no let up in liquidation of assets either.  The technical conditions are still stuck in oversold territory.  We've seen some rapid declines before, 1987 comes to mind.  But this one combined with the shutdown of everyday life seems a bit extreme.  Option premiums remain very overpriced either way.  The sidelines seem to be the place to be.  GE was off a half and the volume remains very heavy.  The daily candlestick chart here shows a potential hammer.  Of course it has shown a potential hammer 3 or 4 times during this decline.  Gold fell over $40 on the futures as the US dollar climbed and closed over the 100 level for the first time in quite a while.  The flight to safety is in dollars for now and not in gold.  The gold shares got clobbered.  the XAU dropped 11 1/2, while GDX shed over 5 3/4.  Volume was very heavy.  My two GDX call trades lost over half of their value.  Trading here now is not for the faint of heart.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have now rolled over.  I'm still a believer in the trade but with the market acting as crazy as it is, in retrospect I probably should have taken the gains and gotten out.  But each days sees wild swings in both directions so all hope here is not lost yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX made it up to 85 today as it tries to break the record set during mortgage meltdown of 2008.  We might make it at this rate.  The daily charts for a lot of the major stock indices look like that they might have put in a short term bottom today.  They have potential hammers on their candlestick charts like the one for GE.  The key word is potential, since all the previous potential turnaround signals haven't worked.  Interest rates took off to the upside today for US bonds despite the drop in rates from the Fed.  Bonds are being sold to cover the margin calls and losses taken elsewhere.  Gold and the gold shares are being sold for the same reason to me.  There is some kind of liquidity crunch going on and I certainly don't know the reasons for it or when it will end.  Throw in a worldwide pandemic with all economies shutting down and you get where we are at the moment.  I'm staying with my GDX April call trade for now and if it blows up in my face I wouldn't be surprised.  Asia and Europe were down last night.  We'll buckle up for another crazy ride tomorrow.  

Another day, another thousand point move as the Dow gained 1048 on the now normal crazy high volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  Still trying to put in some kind of short term bottom but that remains to be seen.  The SPY options are still loaded with volatility premium.  3 days to go in the March option cycle.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are trying to turn back up.  But they've been trying for over a week without any success.  The China virus hasn't gone away.  I'll have to stay on the sidelines for now with respect to SPY.  GE was up 3/8 on heavy volume.  Gold was up over $20 on the futures and came well up from the lows.  The US dollar was up over a point.  Perhaps the dollar and gold are finally being sought as the usual flights to safety.  The XAU added almost ten points, while GDX was up 3.  Volume was heavy.  My GDX April calls are in the black.  The short term technical indicators for GDX still have room to move higher.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today but remains extremely high.  Volatility will persist for a while.  We have already reached extremes in most of the momentum indicators.  As I said before the rubber band has moved too far in one direction.  That pressure has to get relieved.  It may not mean a robust rally but the downside has to at least take a break at some point.  Sideways would do the trick.  The market won't be turning around on a dime in my view because when the earnings start to come in, they'll be horrible in most cases.  How much of that is already in the market, I don't know.  I do know that the summation index is getting to the point of being the most negative that I've ever seen it but we're not there yet.  But we are getting there pretty fast.  Things for the stock market will probably get better once the real world starts to get back to normal.  That may be a while.  Asia finished higher last night, while Europe was mixed.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Just another crazy day to start the week on Wall Street.  The Dow got pummeled again and lost 2997 points on extremely heavy insane volume.  The panic is in full flight.  The advance/declines were 24 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  The Fed cut interest rates to zero over the weekend but the market doesn't care.  Yup, it's a full blown panic and there seems to be no end in sight.  Unprecedented in some respects but it reminds me of the trading following the 9/11 attacks.  The rules change on a daily basis with the China virus but it is certain that economic activity is negatively affected.  Unless you run a grocery store or produce toilet paper.  We are only concerned with the trading though.  Each time it looks like a capitulation low on heavy volume and we bounce, we end up simply going lower in another day or two.  There's no telling where it will all end, we just went through the 200 week moving average today on the S&P.  The next level of support for the S&P comes in at the 2200-2100 level.  At this rate we'll get there tomorrow.  Things are really overdone at this point in my mind.  Long term investors should step up to the plate.  It's hard to trade the SPY options here but I do think that the calls this week will work at some point.  Premiums remain volatile though.  GE lost almost 1 1/4 on heavy volume.  Gold dropped $15 on the futures but was down fifty dollars more than that during the session.  Volatility rules.  The US dollar fell.  Money came into the gold shares.  The XAU rose almost 5 points, while GDX gained 3 1/2.  Volume was extremely heavy as it was on Friday.  The move in GDX was even more crazy as it gapped down at the open and even went lower than it did on Friday.  The intra-day range was over six points like Friday as well.  But this time it was moving up instead of down.  I did place an open order again overnight for some more GDX April calls at a lower strike price and it was filled.  It is showing a hefty profit.  My other GDX April calls purchased earlier are somehow back in the black.  That is how crazy things have gotten.  It could all change tomorrow though as the markets are in a bizarre state of uncertainty.  Mentally I'm doing the best I can.  The VIX is now above 80 and perhaps trying to set a new record above 90 this week.  Maybe even tomorrow at this rate.  I'd like to say I know where we go from here but I don't.  We are getting oversold bounces from extreme McClellan oscillator readings but nothing holds.  Worldwide central bank action hasn't stemmed the tide of selling.  I think it is a great time for long term investors to put money to work.  Where will we be a year from now?  Probably higher than where we are today.  But my focus is on gold and the gold shares as that is what I'm trading at the moment.  And things are so volatile and crazy that it will be hard to figure out what to do.  The short term technical indicators for GDX have just turned up and there is plenty of room for them to move higher.  But that doesn't mean they will.  However the money flow into GDX today tells me that perhaps others now see what I saw and maybe gold will be the haven of choice now.  Or not.  Everything is in a very fluid situation.  Europe and Asia were crushed overnight and I'd expect more of the same tonight.  It is a worldwide pandemic panic.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A bounce today as the Dow climbed 1985 points on the insane volume.  The advance/declines were better than 6 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The markets were extremely oversold and some kind of bounce was needed to relieve the selling pressure.  But that doesn't mean that the selling is over.  Expiration next week could get pretty crazy.  However we are already in crazy mode with a national emergency declared this afternoon with the China virus.  It was quite a rough week for stocks with more turbulence no doubt on the way.  The option premiums are still way out of whack for the SPY.  Any trade there will have to be quick as things are changing constantly.  The sidelines are not a bad idea until things settle down too.  I still think that there is another leg down from here.  GE was up 2/3 on heavy volume.  Gold got crushed again and the futures lost over fifty bucks.  The US dollar was higher as it is the flight to safety choice for now.  Crazy price action in GDX in the final 5 minutes.  It moved down and up 2 1/2 points in that time span.  GDX finished down 3 1/3, while the XAU lost 7 1/2.  Volume was huge.  Today was the selling climax for GDX in my humble opinion.  GDX has lost almost 50% of its value in about 3 weeks.  Has gold lost 50% of its value?  Not even close.  This is what I mean about price inefficiencies and opportunity.  My GDX April calls are still showing a loss but I did place an order for some more at a lower strike price today but canceled it late due to the volatility.  I might try again on Monday but I think the chance has passed.  I just didn't have the guts to leave the trade in.  Could I be wrong about all this?  Yes.  Could the price of gold keep dropping here and bring down GDX with it even lower?  Yes.  These are crazy times.  I'll go over it all again this weekend and take it from there.  Mentally I'm just taking it a day at a time.  Still feeling down.  The VIX dropped a lot today from its lofty level and the short term technical indicators have started to roll over.  But volatility is still at a very elevated level and there is probably more downside to come.  The market fears the unknown and we're still in that kind of game for now due to the China virus.  Perhaps things to the downside will pause now.  That's just a hopeful guess on my part.  The decline here will last a while because the 1st quarter earnings reports will be horrible in most cases.  The economies around the world are basically shutting down for a while until things are under control.  No one knows how long that will take.  Most stock charts are blown out to the downside.  I'll ponder the possibilities over the weekend and decide what to do from there.  Most of Asia was lower overnight and Europe showed a slight gain.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Down and down we go, where it stops nobody knows.  The Dow lost 2353 points on the now normal insanely high volume.  The advance/declines were 39 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues to decline.  Oversold and staying that way.  There are no buyers.  The selling just feeds on itself.  Margin calls make selling anything that is worth something the only choice.  All support is gone and the long bull market is over.  The Fed tried to do something again today and the market shrugged.  It seems like worldwide economic activity has been put on hold until the China virus is under some kind of control.  Nobody knows how long that will take.  Long term investors can rejoice because stocks are on sale.  But they will probably get cheaper.  The falling knife is in full force.  Throw out the technicals because fear has taken over.  GE was off a buck and the volume was very heavy.  Gold got pounded and fell $70.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped almost ten points.  GDX lost 2 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  I left in an order to buy some GDX April calls overnight and it got filled.  It is showing a loss.  I may put in another order overnight at a different strike price tonight.  Everything is being sold now regardless of its merit.  I firmly believe that.  I also know that at some point between now and the April expiration there will be quite a huge move higher in all assets as the rubber band is already stretched too far in the negative direction.  Gold is being sold here because it is the only thing left for some.  I don't know how far it will continue to drop but I do know that it will come back with a vengeance once the panic and margin selling has ended.  I do not know when that will be but I'd guess that perhaps next week things could start to bounce.  Maybe it takes a little longer but going out to April seems like the strategy for me at this time.  That's why I might buy some more GDX calls tomorrow.  Now this could be completely the wrong thing to do as well but I'm willing to take the risk here.  Mentally I'm still feeling down regardless of the markets and trading.  It will get better.  The VIX closed above 75 today and the positive divergences on the short term technical indicators have been negated.  How often does the VIX get up to 75?  It did during the market meltdown in 2008.  That's it.  That is the kind of unprecedented territory that we find ourselves in.  That is also why I sincerely believe that there is a unique opportunity here for profits if you can take advantage of it.  I certainly don't know how things will play out here but I'm willing to try something in order to profit.  If it's another losing trade than so be it.  It won't be a surprise to see the market down again tomorrow heading into the weekend.  There's no containment for the China virus in the US that anybody can see.  Sitting on the sidelines here is also a completely viable strategy.  But for myself, I'm willing to take some risk.  The worldwide carnage in the markets continued overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 1465 points on insane volume again.  The advance/declines were 17 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Oversold and staying that way.  The potential positive divergences that I mentioned yesterday remain just that, potential.  At this rate they are not going to be valid.  There's an up trend line from 2016 that comes in at the 265 level for the SPY.  That might hold.  The 200 week moving average is at 255.  Theses would be spots to try the March calls on a short term basis if you had the guts.  I don't think that I do though.  This is somewhat of an unprecedented decline with the speed at which we've dropped.  Now it's not 1987 style 22% in one day but it is fairly rapid.  We are right on the up trend line that began in 2009 at the beginning of the bull market.  Plenty of support at the 200 to 210 level for the SPY.  I certainly hope we're not going all the way back there.  GE was off another 2/3 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was off $25 on the futures and the US dollar was higher.  The gold shares got creamed.  The XAU lost 7 3/4, while GDX shed 2 1/3.  Volume was very heavy.  I dumped my March GDX calls for a 70% loss.  With the extremely fast market conditions I did not keep the stop loss order in place here.  I did have a chance to exit with a profit this week but I did not take advantage of it.  I'm still a believer in the gold shares though as the current market trading conditions are at an extreme.  I may even try to get some of the GDX April calls tomorrow.  However if the stock market continues to simply unwind with all players heading for the exits, the gold shares will continue to suffer.  Gold will continue to decline to meet margin calls and keep players from going out of business.  I'll consider this idea tonight.  Mentally I'm doing the best that I can.  The VIX remains over 50 and the technical indicators are overbought but there is still a little room to be even more overbought here.  It looks like the S&P is trying to put in a bottom here but the battle isn't over.  The Dow did pass the 20% down threshold today on a closing basis so I guess the bull market is officially dead according to that index.  Blame the China virus as the market is moving on any kind of news on that.  There won't be any quick recovery for the economy until there is some kind of handle on the China virus.  That doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon.  Earnings will be affected and not in a positive way.  It may be more of an economic crash per se than an economic slowdown.  But it won't last forever and opportunity for long term investors will be at hand.  We just don't know from what level.  Europe and Asia continues lower as the worldwide rout lives on.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A bounce from the extreme as the Dow rose 1167 points on what is now normal crazy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues lower.  Just a bounce for now in the whole scheme of things.  But there are some potential positive divergences here for the S&P.  A positive RSI divergence is on the daily SPY chart.  The stochastic on the daily chart here also looks promising for the bulls.  But these are only potentials as we won't know if they're valid until the days move on.  But they are signs of hope for the long side.  If I was in a better mental state I might even try the SPY calls here.  But we are also in a volatility driven market right now and it is extreme.  Thousand point up and down days are not the norm.  Another headline either way can push things to the extreme once again.  The next China virus headline could move us up or down another two thousand points in a day.  Going through the zero line on the summation index favors the downside for now though.  Staying on the sidelines isn't a bad strategy at the moment either.  GE was up 2/3 on good volume.  Gold lost $30 on the futures as the US dollar roared back to the upside.  However the XAU and GDX had small gains on good volume.  This is a classic case of things getting out of control in the market.  The gold shares are up simply because they had gotten beaten down so much in the market sell off.  Ask yourself, how can the gold shares be higher with gold down thirty bucks?  Inefficiencies abound in pricing when we get like this.  It doesn't happen often but there is plenty of opportunity out there for those who can take advantage of it.  My GDX March calls are solidly in the red and I'll be lucky if I can sell them for break even which I doubt.  However in this market environment I suppose anything is possible.  I'm still looking to go out to the April GDX calls perhaps.  Mentally I'm still down with the loss of my beloved pet but we all know the markets just keep moving regardless of our feelings.  There probably are going to be some great money making trades in the next eight days of the March option cycle.  Maybe I'll try something in the short term next week if I'm up for it and there's some kind of valid signal.  One thing that you've got to watch out for is the rapid erosion of option premium as we get to expiration.  The volatility premium will be sucked out of the options as the days go by.  And there is a lot of premium in the March options as we speak.  At some point that will start to erode and there isn't anything you can do about it.  Just a note of caution there.  It looks like the S&P is trying to hold on to the important 2800 level and the bull market.  We'll see if it is successful.  Might or might not be for now but later?  Asia was up and Europe down overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.    

It is a rare event but we are going through the zero line on the summation index and the market is falling apart.  The Dow fell 2014 points on insanely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 42 to 1 negative.  What?  I can't remember seeing things that negative.  These are crazy days for the stock market.  All markets really.  The S&P 500 closed below the up trend line that began the bull market in 2009.  It looks like the long bull market is coming to its end.  Oversold and staying that way.  We are blowing through the support for the S&P, might find some at the 200 week moving average at 2640.  Or might not.  The China virus worries have taken over.  I don't know when the decline will end so I'm on the sidelines with respect to the SPY.  9 days to go in the March option cycle.  GE lost over a buck on very heavy volume.  Gold lost around $10 and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU lost 8 3/4, while GDX shed 2 1/8.  Volume was good.  Everything is being sold as money needs to be raised to cover other losses and margin calls.  My GDX March calls are now back in the red.  The short term technical indicators here have rolled over and they have room to go lower.  I'm thinking about perhaps going out to the April option cycle and trying this trade again.  But the atmosphere at the moment is so uncertain I may just stay on the sidelines here as well.  Mentally I'm depressed and grieving as I had to put my dog to sleep over the weekend.  Sad times.  But the markets go on.  The VIX made it above the 60 level today.  Could it go higher?  Yes but it very overextended.  Just hold on to your seats as this too shall pass.  Markets around the world sold off and I'd expect more of the same tonight.  We'll see how tomorrow goes.

We ended the week on a down note as the Dow fell 256 points on the same insanely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower and just about at the zero line.  The zero line is where things really start to fall apart.  So it's possible that we ain't seen nothing yet.  The market did make a last hour comeback or things would have been a lot worse.  Short covering most likely in my opinion.  We are in the process of retesting the recent low of last week.  Considering that the TRAN and the Russell 2000 have already taken out the previous lows, you can see where things are most likely heading.  The employment report didn't matter as the only focus now is on the next China virus headline.  Could we see a rally next week?  Sure but it probably won't be a sustained one.  Could we collapse next week?  That's a possibility too.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend.  GE dropped 2/3 and the volume was very heavy.  GE led the bounce last week and perhaps it is leading the decline for the future.  Just a guess there.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar got clobbered again.  Interest rates continue to plummet in the US and look to be headed to zero.  The XAU lost 1 2/3, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was heavy.  Profit taking or margin calls, you can take your pick for the gold share performance today.  they did come up off of the lows for the session.  My GDX March calls are somehow still showing a profit.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired as the volatility takes its toll on the mind and body.  The VIX shot up to almost 55 today and we haven't seen that since the meltdown of the mortgage crisis.  I'd like to think that the VIX will decline from here and we'll see some kind of stand taken on the S&P before breaking down again.  But I certainly don't know as we have seen some crazy swings in the past week and there is no reason to think that won't simply continue.  We are still short term oversold on the S&P but not dramatically so.  The question is exactly what to do here and I don't have a solid answer.  Going through the zero line on the summation index is a rare event and you really don't want to be long when it happens.  That said, the VIX has already gone ballistic here and it would be a surprise in my mind if it went any higher.  But anything is possible in this market environment.  Europe and Asia sustained heavy losses overnight to close out the week.  Is there any relief coming?  And if so, how long can it last.  Interesting times.  I'll be going over everything on the charts this weekend and try to come up with some idea as what to do next week.  Sitting on the sidelines is an option as well and I may seriously consider that as well.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The back and forth continues as the Dow fell 969 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower and is heading for the zero line.  At this rate we'll see much lower prices coming up soon unless things can somehow hold in here.  The TRAN keeps making new lows and that is not a positive sign.  We'll get the employment report tomorrow but who will notice?  It's a China virus driven market and it is driving downward.  I've still go my open order for the SPY March puts out there but at this rate it isn't going to get filled.  That might be for the best anyway because the option premiums are out of whack and they will be losing value regardless when we get to expiration week.  I still think we'll get a retest of the recent lows, I'm just hoping things stall around until next week.  Hopefully the put premiums will be cheaper then.  But the market doesn't wait around and has a mind of its own as usual.  GE lost around 7/8 on heavy volume and is now testing its recent low.  Gold rallied as the futures were up $35.  The US dollar got clocked as interest rates are now setting all time lows.  The XAU added 2 points, while GDX gained 2/3.  Volume was good.  My GDX March calls are now solidly in the black but we all know how quickly that can change.  Two weeks and a day to go in the March option cycle.  Not overbought yet for GDX on a short term basis, so I'll hold on for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was back up again today.  It didn't go to the 50 level again but it has remained elevated.  As long as that persists there won't be any let up in the daily wild swings that we're seeing.  Combine that with the absolute walloping decline in interest rates and you have the recipe for extreme fear.  That's where we're at right now.  I'm not sure when it will let up as the China virus issue is an ongoing unknown.  The Fed dropping interest rates didn't have any effect on the stock market in my view.  So the question is, what else can be done?  The reality is, nothing.  We'll continue to ride things out and try to look for opportunities.  We had a bounce and I can only hope today wasn't the start of the retest of the low.  I'm still saying being nimble here is the best course of action.  Asia was higher overnight with China doing extremely well after the initial fall in the beginning of February.  Europe was lower.  We'll close out this volatile week tomorrow.

The market continues to seesaw back and forth as the Dow climbed 1173 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 6 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower but the McClellan oscillator is trying to get back to its zero line.  The wide swings are becoming routine now but we know that won't last.  The major stock indices are looking like they are trying to put in a V shaped bottom.  I do still have my open order for some SPY March puts out there.  I'll cancel it if we more through my upside bounce target for the S&P.  It is possible that will happen but I am not in the camp favoring the V bottom.  I do think that we'll get some kind of retest of the recent lows.  I could be wrong.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was above average.  Gold was off a few bucks after yesterdays huge gain.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  My GDX March calls are still in the black.  I'm not exactly sure how long to hang on to this trade with all of the recent volatility.  There's still over 2 weeks to go in the March option cycle.  The short term technical indicators for GDX are not yet overbought but they do look like they might want to roll over here.  The trading is never easy.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today and has plenty of room to move down.  The technical indicators here are mid-range and could go either way from here.  There's plenty of room to support more upside for the stock averages with the VIX.  We are in very volatile times right now though so caution isn't the worst thing in the world.  There's still plenty of uncertainty to go around.  My thinking is that we'll form some kind of short term top hopefully within the next few sessions and then perhaps head back down again next week.  If the McClellan oscillator can't get back up through its zero line, I'll be confident in purchasing some SPY puts for short term trade.  However I do think being nimble is the way to go here with respect to the S&P.  The volatility cuts both ways and the option premiums are out of whack.  Asia was mixed and Europe finished higher overnight.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the Dow higher tonight.

Right back to the downside today as the Dow fell 785 points on the very heavy insane volume that seems to be the norm now.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  We got a one day pop and then a drop.  It isn't positive price action.  The summation index is heading lower and getting near the zero line which is the crash zone.  We have already seen what resembles a crash in the past couple of weeks.  However if the zero line doesn't hold, we'll see even more panic like days.  The Fed cut rates a half a point today and the market dropped.  Perhaps those in the know already knew this yesterday, which may have added to the oversold bounce.  But I've got news for the Fed.  Rate cuts won't cure the virus and after todays price action it appears that they've added to the fear.  I do have an order out there to get some SPY March puts but we'll need to see some more upside for it to get filled.  We've already had a 50% retracement back up from this decline so it may be too late for the puts.  The wild back and forth isn't helping with the option premiums as they remain over priced.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was very heavy.  Gold rallied on the rate cut.  The futures climbed $50.  Yes, fifty bucks after dropping $75 in a day last week.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX rose 1 1/3.  Volume was extremely heavy.  The gold shares were up twice as much as where they closed at one point during the session.  But the selling in the overall market most likely made for more margin calls and the gold shares dropped.  My GDX March calls went from red to black.  I probably should have sold them today but the short term technical indicators are not even close to overbought yet.  However with the crazy swings that we're seeing, perhaps being nimble is the way to go here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was all over the place today and climbed back up by the close.  Closer to overbought here but that may not mean anything in this crazy atmosphere.  My game plan here is really to get some SPY March puts if we head higher from here.  For the SPY the 50% retracement level of 312 was hit today.  That was a spot to short.  The Fibonacci retracement that I'm looking at comes in at 318.  If we get back to these levels before the end of the week I'll try the puts.  But we may just keep dropping form here.  When good news is met with selling, the market is telling you something.  And it isn't bullish.  There is really so much uncertainty going on in the markets at the moment that stepping aside isn't really a bad idea either.  But you won't make any money that way.  We'll have to see how the foreign markets react to the Fed cut in interest rates here.  They may just follow the US lower, we'll have to wait and see.  Asia was lower with the exception of China.  Europe was higher following yesterdays US rally.  It seems like a week has passed already but it's only been two days.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The market roared back to the upside today, continuing the oversold bounce that began on Friday.  The Dow soared 1293 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  There's talk of a Fed intervention but the China virus hasn't gone away.  This is the oversold technical bounce that was way overdue.  It could have more room to run but a retest of the recent lows isn't out of the question.  The McClellan oscillator had gotten to the point of extremely oversold and in the -400 area.  There is no where to go from there but up.  That doesn't mean that the decline is over but it does mean that some upside is inevitable.  Where we go from here and how we finish the week will be important.  GE was up another 1/3 on heavy volume.  It was the canary in the coal mine.  Gold bounced as well with the futures rising $20.  It did finish well off of the highs though.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 3 3/4, while GDX was up 1 1/8.  Volume was heavy.  My GDX March calls are still in the red.  We are still short term oversold for GDX so there's room to move higher for the gold shares.  I'm just not sure if it will be enough to save my GDX trade though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has turned around but remains elevated.  The short term indicators here have turned down.  The VIX also had reached an extreme level where the only option was for it to move lower.  These extremes do not happen often.  As for the stock market extreme that we just witnessed, it rarely is a V shaped turn back up.  There is usually a retest of the low or at least some sideways price action before things get going one way or the other again.  That doesn't mean it can't be V shaped this time around but it does mean that the odds are against it.  More negative China virus headlines and things could be down 1000 points in a hurry as well.  So the trading for the March option cycle will be very tricky.  Add into the mix that the option premiums are sky high and you see the kind of trading environment that we're up against.  It will be even more challenging that usual.  Asia was slightly higher last night but China had a good positive session.  Europe was mixed.  I'd expect to see markets around the globe rally tonight following the US lead.  We'll be keeping an eye on things overnight.

Another day and another downer for the Dow as it lost 357 points on insane volume once again.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The McClellan oscillator is just about as low as it ever goes, now in the -400 range.  A bounce is coming and it may have begun today.  The NASDAQ actually finished with a fractional gain if you can believe that.  Very oversold for stocks any way you look at it and it has been that way for a few days now.  I may be buying any weakness on Monday morning.  Just a bounce mind you.  There's no new rally in the making with all the China virus uncertainty.  GE was actually up 3/4 on very heavy volume.  That could be the canary in the coal mine for the bulls here.  Or a fake out, we'll know in due time.  But I'm believing the former since this decline has had a panic and now plenty of margin call selling.  Gold got clobbered today, the futures were off over sixty bucks.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU shed 5 2/3, while GDX lost almost 2 points.  Volume was huge here again.  My GDX March calls remain under water but I expect a rally in the beginning of next week so perhaps I can get out at break even or better.  In fact I did try to purchase some more GDX March calls at a closer to the money strike price but my order wasn't filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX almost touched the 50 level today.  That alone tells you that we are in rare territory.  It also strengthens my view that the decline is now due to take a breather.  That doesn't necessarily mean that it's over but it does mean that a snap back rally is about to take place.  Option premiums are very expensive though.  However if we get a chance on Monday morning to purchase some SPY calls, I think that will be the proper short term move.  Of course we have to get through the weekend headlines whatever they may be.  Just be clear on this, extremely oversold, a panic move lower yesterday and today the market didn't completely collapse again.  The volume was off the charts today so somebody was stepping in to break the fall.  That's my view of things going on in the market at the moment.  Plenty and I mean plenty to ponder over the weekend.  Opportunity is out there in my mind.  Europe and Asia got crushed in overnight trading to end the week.  We'll have to see how they do before the US market opens on Monday morning.  Interesting times.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Panic on Wall Street as the Dow dropped 1191 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index is cascading lower.  The China virus fear has reached a feverous pitch.  The S&P 500 has reached the 3000 level and breached it.  This is the logical spot to try some SPY March calls.  However there is nothing logical about what we are witnessing today.  I did place an open order for some SPY March calls but canceled it.  We are at oversold extremes right now.  However this week is acting like the week following the opening after 9/11.  So we've probably got further down to go.  I'm sure that the bounce will be incredible as well.  I just don't know from what level it will start.  I still might take a shot at it though.  GE fell over 1/2 and the volume remains extremely heavy there.  Gold was up only a buck again and finished off of its highs for the day.  The US dollar was lower.  The gold shares got clocked, with the XAU down 7 1/2 and GDX losing 1 3/4.  Volume was extremely heavy here as well.  Everything is being sold regardless of worth at the moment as I'm sure there are plenty of margin calls that must be met.  I did change my open order for the GDX March calls to a lower strike price and it did get filled in todays bloodbath.  Yes it is showing a loss but at least there's three weeks to go here and perhaps the gold shares will snap back as well.  However the daily chart now looks ugly and we're not even oversold on a short term basis yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX soared to over 39 today so we are in not familiar territory on this indicator.  It will not stay this high for long but who knows in this pandemic fear.  It really is impossible now to try and call the bottom bounce point.  The market has already gone into an irrational place.  What if the China virus doesn't have a big effect on the US?  If that's the case then we'll be seeing some 1000 point up days I can assure you.  But we don't know exactly what's going to happen and the market always fears the unknown.  To me it has already been blown out of downside proportion but that's just my guess on things.  On a technical basis we're way oversold and staying that way, hence the waterfall decline.  I should probably not try and be a hero and just stay on the sidelines until things settle themselves out.  You won't make any money that way.  But you won't lose any either.  I'll continue to think it over tonight.  I'll hang on to the GDX call trade for now.  Europe and Asia were lower last night and I'll assume that they'll get crushed again tonight.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

The market took a rest today compared with the beginning of this week.  The Dow fell 123 points and the volume continues to be very heavy.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Still no break from the China virus fears as its effects are yet to be fully known.  It is spreading but hasn't really had an impact in the US.  If that does occur then we'll be heading even lower.  The NASDAQ had a slight gain today so maybe there's some near term hope for the bulls.  I'm still waiting for a snap back to try the SPY puts or a run down to 3000 on the S&P 500 to try the SPY calls.  Short term oversold now any way you look at it.  There is plenty of time in the March option cycle since it just began.  GE lost another 1/3 and the volume remains heavy here.  Gold only rose a buck or so today and finished well off of the highs.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on good volume.  I do still have an open order for the GDX March calls out there.  However the weekly charts for the gold shares and gold would look pretty negative if we were to close where we are today.  Bearish cloud candlestick patterns would be in place.  So I may have to rethink this idea tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is quite overbought and is pointing towards some kind of short term rally here soon.  Either that or we're going to get to 3000 on the S&P sooner rather than later.  I've got an idea of what to do here so I'll simply have to see what the market says and go from there.  Of course we're now at an extreme level of headline risk but that cannot be avoided at the moment.  So we'll watch and wait for now.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The market runs on fear and greed.  Fear is certainly in control now as the Dow collapsed another 879 points on even heavier volume than yesterday.  The advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 negative.  The summation index is roaring lower.  It is a panic attack caused by the China virus.  Seems nobody has a good handle on what is going on with that.  We are now short term oversold but just like being overbought in rallies doesn't mean much neither does being oversold in declines.  My view is that there's solid support for the S&P 500 at the 3000 level.  At this rate we'll be there tomorrow.  I'm still a believer in getting short on a snap back when it occurs.  Might have to wait a while for that but who knows?  GE lost 1/2 and the volume was heavy again.  Gold lost $27 today on the futures and the US dollar was down as well.  Profit taking perhaps?  Margin calls needing to be met?  Well we were way overbought for gold and the gold shares so something had to give.  The XAU fell 4 points and GDX shed over a point.  Volume was pretty heavy once again.  I did place an overnight order for the GDX March calls.  It wasn't filled and I may have to re-evaluate this idea tonight.  Yes, I'd like to do it but no I don't know if it will work.  The volatility in all markets has picked up considerably and that makes the option premiums soar.  Money is to be made but you've really got to nimble and a little lucky.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX made it to 30 today and that is the highest reading since the end of 2018.  We may not be at the point for the decline to end but we are certainly getting there.  The market is in panic mode with the Dow off almost 2000 points in just 2 days.  Who knows, maybe if we get to 3000 on the S&P tomorrow I'll try the SPY March calls.  That is the next idea that I have unless we start to rally tomorrow.  The drop has been incredibly quick and even when the futures rally overnight, by the time the market opens traders are ready to sell.  It is almost like what we saw in the markets after 9/11.  At any rate at some point we'll see a move back to the broken trend line and that will be the chance to try the March puts in my view.  Until then it is perhaps just best to wait it out.  Most of Asia was lower and Europe got crushed again too.  We'll keep an eye on tonight headlines and see what we can do tomorrow.

The game changed today as the Dow crashed 1032 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Fear of the China virus overtook all other factors today.  Why it took so long is just one question.  The longer term up trend line for the S&P 500 at 3250 was broken.  Where we close this week will tell a  lot about where we are going.  A close below 3250 on the S&P 500 would imply that 3000 is the stopping point.  We should go lower from here though because the short term technical indicators haven't gotten oversold yet.  The NASDAQ got killed as well but it is still above the uptrend line that began in December of 2018.  We had huge gaps lower to start the day and it looks like a full fledged decline has begun.  10% lower would take us to 3053 on the S&P.  My next trading idea here is to wait for the snap back that will appear out of nowhere and then try the SPY March puts.  That is what usually happens in these instances.  There will be a huge rally for a day or so and then the decline continues and takes out the previous low.  So I'll wait for that and if it doesn't occur I'll think of something else.  GE lost over 1/3 on heavy volume.  Gold continued to shine as the futures gained $16.  It did close far below the high for the session though.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very heavy volume.  Short term overbought now for the gold shares but the break out here is for real in my opinion.  My strategy here is to wait for a pull back as one should materialize when the stock market stabilizes.  At that point I'll try the GDX March calls since I believe that we'll make another run to the highs set today.  Can we just continue higher from here for the gold shares?  Yes, but I do think a pause is the next logical assumption.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX went ballistic today and closed above the 25 level.  We're already short term overbought here.  Yes it could go higher tomorrow but I would expect a reversal at some point this week.  Make no mistake here though, rallies are not going to last as fear is the overriding concern for now.  As more negative news comes out about the China virus it will simply feed on itself.  Although the ideal time to own the SPY puts has come and gone, there will still be opportunities to make money on the downside in my humble opinion.  But you'll have to pay attention and be up for the game.  Europe and Asia were lower to the extreme as well as panic seemed to take a hold of the worldwide stock markets today.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Virus fears prevailed again as the Dow lost 227 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that should be noted.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over and this has the feel of more than just a brief decline.  This could be the beginning of a more protracted move lower.  I may be looking at buying some SPY March puts early next week.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Getting short term oversold here.  Gold continues to shine and the futures rose $25.  It has been quite a week for the precious metal.  The US dollar dropped today.  The XAU added 3 1/8 while GDX climbed 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  I still may chase this move if we see some weakness early next week because it has been a high volume breakout for sure.  You can also be sure that the decline from this rise will be just as swift when it happens.  Traders pile in and they pile out of this trading vehicle.  In retrospect I should have just jumped on board after my open order on Tuesday wasn't filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX jumped today and made it to the 18 level.  There's still room for the short term indicators to move higher there.  The NASDAQ is now leading the way down and that's bearish.  Since the decline is news driven, it will trade on any reports coming out about the virus be it negative or positive.  So it won't be an easy market to trade.  But as you can see from the activity during this week, there are opportunities to take advantage of.  I'll have to go over things again this weekend and decide what to do next week.  It won't be easy since my confidence isn't where it needs to be.  That said, I could remain on the sidelines if I'm not up to the task.  I'll see what stands out to me over the weekend and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight but it isn't a bloodbath just yet.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The day started out quiet but around an hour or so after the open things fell apart.  The Dow was off almost 400 points during the session but closed off 128 on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Hard to figure that.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal last night for a big move within the next two sessions and today qualifies for that.  China virus fear was the reason given for the decline but like all the other recent drops, buyers stepped in.  The short term technical picture for the S&P 500 remains overbought.  GE was down almost a dime on lighter volume.  Gold continues higher as the futures added another $9.  The US dollar continued higher as well.  The gold shares finished little changed on better than average volume.  They are most likely due for a rest.  I did cancel my open order for the GDX March calls.  We're overbought on the gold shares on a short term basis but I may try this idea again next week if we see some near term weakness.  Any good news on the China virus will probably cause gold to tumble.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a pretty good spike early on but finished well off of its beat level.  The short term technical indicators here have turned up but it's still oversold.  It did close back above the 200 day moving average though.  Option expiration Friday tomorrow so we'll have to see how that plays into things.  I will probably remain on the sidelines before the weekend.  It looks like we are in a headline driven environment again for the time being.  The US dollar is finding money flow into it but the usual haven of the Japanese yen is not happening this time around.  Gold and the yen usually move in tandem so I don't know how much longer the gold rally can last.  The stock market is overdue for some type of sustained downside but as long as any selling is met with buyers we won't see any decline that will last.  The trend remains up until proven otherwise.  Asia was generally higher with Europe down in last nights trading action.  We'll close out the shortened trading week tomorrow.  

Back to the upside for the Dow as it gained 115 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  New all time highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.  As long as the over the counter market is leading the way, the trend will be up.  No matter the news, good or bad, the market continues to go higher.  You cannot fight that.  We are also in a seasonally strong period for stocks until sometime in April.  I guess we'll just have to see how high things go.  Short term overbought and staying that was for stocks.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume picked up to the downside.  Gold added another nine bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  I am leaving in an open order for the GDX March calls but it won't be filled unless we see some decline in the gold shares.  However the train has already left the station with regards to the gold shares here.  Simply another missed opportunity.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and the rally in stocks lives on.  There's no overhead resistance for stocks as I have already pointed out before.  I guess we can just sit back and enjoy the ride.  If and when the market starts to react negatively to some bad news, then we'll know that the tone has changed.  Hasn't happened yet.  Options expiration is on Friday and I don't see any change in the trend over the next couple of days.  I'm looking for something to trade going forward but haven't come up with anything as of yet.  It's probably too late for the GDX March call trade.  March is also usually the weakest month of the year for gold as well.  We'll see how it goes this time around.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A lower start to options expiration week as the Dow fell 165 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to move sideways.  AAPL announced last night that it would miss its 1st quarter results due to the China virus.  This had markets sinking overnight but the US held up rather well considering.  The NASDAQ sold off but ended up with a slight gain by the close today.  The S&P was down but it wasn't as bad as it could have been.  the market is showing amazing strength despite the negative news.  I cannot explain it but it is worth paying attention to.  If you got short this morning it appears that you will get squeezed once again.  The major stock indices do remain short term overbought.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  The technical indicators here have rolled over.  Gold took off to the upside as the futures gained twenty bucks.  The US dollar was up too in a flight to safety.  When I saw gold rising last night, I put in an order for the March GDX calls.  It wasn't filled.  The gold shares rallied as well.  The XAU was up almost four points, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  The gold shares are breaking out so I have placed another order for the GDX March calls at a higher strike price.  I do think that this is a move worth chasing.  I should have perhaps simply bought the calls today at the market but I didn't.  Maybe my lack of confidence played a role in my actions today.  I do think that the gold shares have just shown us which way the breakout will occur.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a gap up at the open and has plenty of room to go higher.  Whether or not it does is the question.  We are still short term oversold there despite todays drop.  When the market is being hit with bad news form AAPL combined with more China virus fears and it holds up the way it did today tells me that it is most likely going to go higher in the near term.  It may just be options expiration related but it must be taken into consideration.  We'll see how the foreign markets digest todays US market action and go from there.  There still seems to be plenty of money that wants to gravitate to stocks in the US.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on this evenings headlines.   

A mixed bag before a long weekend as the Dow lost 25 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is basically moving sideways.  The market bounced around all day and then moved higher in the half hour or so.  The China virus is still in the news but the market isn't worried.  The technical picture for the S&P 500 remains short term overbought.  I don't exactly have a good handle on things here.  My best guess is that we'll just grind higher from here.  GE was off 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold continued higher, the futures rose almost ten bucks.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The gold shares are not keeping up though.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost a cent.  Volume was very light.  It certainly isn't bullish when gold rises and the gold shares don't follow along.  They are still hugging their 50 day moving average.  I'll be patient here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues lower and remains oversold.  It is forecasting higher equity prices going forward.  That along with the usual positive option expiration week bias has me thinking we'll be seeing new all time highs for the major averages again next week.  I'm not sure if it's worth trying some short term SPY calls but it may be.  I'll remain on the sidelines most likely as the loss this week has sapped my confidence for now.  The TRAN and IWM were both lower today but I'm not sure if that means anything or not.  I'll be taking a much needed break for the next 3 days.  Yes, I'll be checking the charts but I will also relax as well.  Europe and Asia were mixed to close out the week.  That seemed to be the theme around the world today.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a back and forth session as the Dow lost 128 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The market was lower early but as has been the case buyers showed up and we rallied most of the day.  Some late selling put us negative on the day.  We are still short term overbought and overdue for some type of decline.  Might have to wait until after expiration for a drop.  Or if recent history prevails, the market will simply grind higher.  Just a week left in the February option cycle.  I'll try not to do anything stupid.  No guarantees.  GE lost 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU added a point, while GDX was up almost 1/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Waiting to see which way things go here as the XAU Bollinger bands imply.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is getting oversold now.  It can stay that way in up trends.  More noise form the China virus today but the effect was short lived for now.  I now get the feeling that we'll see 3400 on the S&P 500 and 30000 on the Dow in short order.  Sellers are met with buyers before the selling even gets started these days.  I guess I'll be on the sidelines until I can get things figured out again.  Europe and Asia were slightly lower last night.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow ahead of a long weekend.

Another day another gain as the Dow climbed 274 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is now barely moving higher.  The overall market wasn't as strong as the Dow but the gains were spread around.  New all time highs for many of the stock indexes.  I sold the SPY February puts for an 80% loss.  Unacceptable.  I did have a chance to break even when I canceled the stop loss order but I simply held on waiting for a decline that never appeared.  Don't cancel your stop loss orders when you've already placed them.  It's on to the next trade but I think that the sidelines will be the place for me now after this latest trading debacle.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold was little changed as the US dollar was up again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Both the XAU and GDX are trying to hang on to their 50 day moving averages.  I am still looking at the April calls for GDX.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX finally broke down through its 200 day moving average which signals higher prices yet to come.  Whatever ideas that I had for a market decline were wrong.  The usually reliable sell signal that I received did not have the magnitude that it has had in the past.  I also was trying the puts after the fact.  The decline, brief as it was, had already taken place.  My stubborn attitude when placing the next couple of trades was not the right move.  It now appears that we'll get the usual run up in the indices leading into the February option expiration.  For me I'll try and fight myself to not take on another trade here and wait for the next signal.  I still think that the contracting Bollinger bands for the XAU mean something but I will try and not guess which way things will go.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but in rallies it can stay that way longer than you think.  With no overhead resistance and new all time highs a daily occurrence, owning calls seems to be the only way to go.  Europe and Asia were higher as the worldwide push into stocks is in full force.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

A day of running in place today as the Dow dropped half a point on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Nothing new on the headline front.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought.  I am still holding on to the SPY February puts and they continue to show a loss.  This trade is running out of time and only a sharp substantial drop will do me any good.  I suppose that I'll wait and see how it goes tomorrow.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Gold fell six bucks and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX were both little changed on very light volume.  The Bollinger bands for the XAU have contracted to the point of forecasting a big move coming there soon.  Perhaps the GDX call trade should be put on again.  For now I'm on the sidelines there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to hover around its 200 day moving average.  This condition won't last forever.  The break one way or the other will tell a lot about the markets near term direction.  You can't really argue with the new all time highs that we're setting in some of the major averages though.  With the over the counter market leading the way here, the case for higher prices going forward is not out of the question.  The Fed spoke today and will finish tomorrow.  What was said today had no effect on the market.  The China virus doesn't seem to be a concern and trade tensions have disappeared for now.  As long a breadth remains positive the path of least resistance is higher.  Europe and Asia were up in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.    

The Dow started off the week with a gain of 174 points on average volume.  It was a one day reversal to the upside as we started lower and closed higher.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The market was looking at good gains for the day and then shot higher in the final half hour.  My SPY February puts are now big losers.  The stop loss order should not have been canceled.  Unless we get some kind of sharp turnaround lower, this trade will be another mismanaged loser.  We've got the Fed speaking on Wednesday but that will most likely be pretty dovish with the effects of the China virus not completely known as of yet.  New all time highs for some of the major stock indices as well.  It appears we've had all of the pause that we're going to get near term.  With only eight days to go in the February option cycle, it's conceivable that things will continue to run up into expiration.  GE was up a few cents but the volume was light.  Gold added another five bucks and the US dollar was higher again as well.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is right at its 200 day moving average.  Another day like today will send us through.  With plenty of stock indexes hitting new all time highs and now resistance above us it's easy to make the case for higher prices.  I should probably just take the loss I have and move on.  Perhaps I'll wait for the Fed.  Either way it's a rough start to the trading year for me.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Some selling to end the week as the Dow fell 277 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index was trying to turn back up but is now slightly moving lower.  The jobs report was better than expected but the market was down from the open.  We bounced around with a lower bias the rest of the session.  Fear from the China virus is starting to creep back into the market.  I'm still holding my SPY February puts and they are still showing a loss.  They are now back above my stop loss price and that's a plus.  I still see some more downside for Monday but after that it isn't as clear.  We are still short term overbought on the indicators for the S&P, even with todays drop.  The overall market did fare better than the Dow today.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold rose almost five bucks on the futures and the US dollar was up yet again.  The XAU was down 2, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was light.  Dropping gold share prices with a rise in gold isn't bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling just slightly tired, almost done with the flu hopefully.  The VIX closed back above its 200 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators here are trying to turn back up.  If that occurs we'll see some more downside next week.  However I must admit that the NASDAQ is really holding up rather well here and we won't get a substantial decline unless the over the counter market begins to falter.  We will also have to see the summation index start to drop again for a decline to gather steam.  There is a potential negative RSI divergence for the S&P 500 on the daily chart.  I am thinking that we'll head lower on Monday according to my work but anything can happen over the weekend.  The powerful up move that we saw this week after the previous decline cannot be counted out.  So there will be plenty to ponder when going over the charts this weekend.  Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

Another day, another gain as the Dow rose 89 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative though.  The summation index has stopped going down and is trying to turn up.  Getting short term overbought now for the major averages.  I canceled my stop loss order for the SPY February puts that I own.  That goes against the rules but sometimes you have to know when to break them.  That trade is still showing a loss but I am fairly certain that we'll see some downside in the next couple of sessions.  At least that is what my work it pointing towards although it hasn't been correct lately.  We'll get the jobs report tomorrow and that may get things going in either direction.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was good.  Gold was up $10 on the futures and the US dollar was higher again as well.  The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was light.  I am now looking at the GDX April calls as my next trade with the gold shares.  Perhaps this time I'll take the profits if I have them unlike the last attempt.  Mentally I'm still not 100% with the lingering effects of the flu.  The VIX did manage to barely close below its 200 day moving average today.  The short term technical indicators remain mid-range there.  Just two weeks left in the February option cycle as there is a holiday on the 17th.  We've managed to get back to new all time highs for some of the major stock indices.  We'll see if it's the beginning of a new leg up or if a rest is now needed.  Europe and Asia climbed overnight as money has moved back into stocks around the globe.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The Dow continued its climb and added 483 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This will move the summation index sideways as it tries to turn around.  The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high.  My SPY February puts were stopped out for a 33% loss.  I then tried this idea once again at a higher strike price but it appears this was a wrong move as well.  It should get stopped out for another loss tomorrow morning.  The market is simply moving higher regardless of the news.  The small decline that we received last week looks to be done.  Unless there is some kind of negative turnaround overnight, the usually reliable signal that I received for lower prices has failed.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have more room to move up and it appears that they will.  Perhaps my under the weather condition is affecting my brain but there are no excuses.  Stepping aside was an option that I did not take.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow today.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was up around $5 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU was up 1/2, while GDX was unchanged.  Volume was about average.  The gold shares are now in the oversold zone but the US dollar has broken out above its down trend line.  I'm still in the bullish camp for the gold shares linger term.  Mentally I'm feeling tired as I am not up to speed just yet.  The VIX is at the moment of truth as it has closed right at the 200 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators for the VIX are mid-range, so it could go either way.  I must admit though with the powerful move up that we've seen since the beginning of the week, the odds favor a move lower for the VIX with higher equity prices the result.  I will simply have to take my losses and move on.  Most likely to the sidelines until I'm feeling better.  Asia and Europe were higher in last nights trade.  It looks like all signs point to higher prices with the China virus not a concern anymore and the US impeachment will be in the rear view mirror.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The Dow soared 407 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is barely moving lower now and trying to turn around.  Could the decline be over?  It very well may be.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high today as the leadership is coming from the small stock indexes with the exception of the Russell 2000.  I am not sure why the market has turned around here.  My indicators called for more of a decline.  So we'll have to wait and see.  I did have an overnight order in for the SPY February puts and it got filled in the morning.  It is already showing a loss.  If it gets stopped out I may move to a higher strike price.  Or I may just move to the sidelines.  GE was up 1/3 but the volume was lighter.  Gold sold off today as the futures lost over twenty dollars.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume picked up to the downside.  My GDX February call trade got stopped out for a 50% loss.  The up trend line from December for GDX got broken today.  It is the logical place and time to exit that trade.  This was a winning trade that again turned into a loser.  That isn't the scenario for success.  Mentally I'm feeling tired and physically I'm still under the weather.  I'm beginning to wonder if perhaps my mind isn't up to the task here due to the flu.  Perhaps sitting out for a while is the better course of action.  I am getting better though.  The VIX had a gap lower today but does remain above its 200 day moving average.  The market has gotten very bullish in a hurry here.  I'm not sure what that means.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P still have plenty of room to move higher.  So it could be that the decline of the past week or so is finished.  We'll probably know by the end of the week.  We'll have the state of the union address tonight followed by the impeachment vote tomorrow.  I mention these things only for what effect that they might have on market movement.  Owning the puts now, I can only hope that it is a sell the news event.  However hope is not a viable trading strategy.  Europe and  Asia were both higher as the China virus scare may have run its course.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The Dow rose 143 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were close to 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  I caught the flu over the weekend so the blog today will be cut short.  Hopefully I'll recover as the week goes on.  I'd still like to attempt the SPY February puts if we continue higher into Thursday.  GDX is still above its up trend line but another down day will break it.  More tomorrow.