What looked to be a good day for the bulls turned into a bummer as the Dow only gained 11 points after being up over 200.  The advance/declines were just about even on average volume.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The market started its decline after the Fed announcement.  That announcement wasn't any kind of surprise but the buying dried up.  My open order for the SPY February puts wasn't filled and I'm leaving it out there.  It's possible that the snap back from the recent sudden decline is over and now we'll head lower from here.  I certainly hope that isn't the case but it could be.  Obviously the market isn't going to wait around to get my order filled.  There's still plenty of time left in the February option cycle.  GE had a blast to the upside after its earnings report.  It rose 1 1/4 on extremely heavy volume.  It has broken above recent resistance and probably has more upside to come.  Gold added almost $10 on the futures as it reversed course.  The US dollar was slightly higher again.  The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was light.  My GDX February calls gained some ground.  GDX is still above its rising trend line with the short term technical indicators about mid-range.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX bounced off of its 200 day moving average today.  Volatility is still in the forefront for now.  The VIX is more overbought now and I'd like to see some drift lower in the short term technical indicators.  But like I've said, the market isn't going to wait around and do what benefits my ideas.  We've got the end of the month on Friday and I'd guess we'd see some selling into that.  That wouldn't help my open order to get filled though.  With today price action it's a good bet tomorrow will be lower.  We'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We got a snap back today as the Dow bounced 187 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading down though.  We reached the recent extremes on the McClellan oscillator so a bounce was due.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way.  The NASDAQ did not break its up trend line from October so there is a chance that the market will simply rally from here.  However I am not in that camp.  I did place an open order for some SPY February puts and I'm leaving it out there.  We've already snapped back to the broken down trend line in the S&P.  Nothing has changed with regards to the China virus and we have the Fed tomorrow.  I'm hoping for a continuation of todays upside and then perhaps the open order will get filled.  GE was up 1/4 on OK volume.  Gold fell on the stock market rally.  The futures shed over $10.  The US dollar finished barely higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was good.  GDX is practically at its short term up trend line.  A close below that will have me exiting this GDX February call trade.  It is somehow still showing a very small profit after two days of decline.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been quite a start to the week as volatility has returned with a vengeance.  With the NASDAQ acting so well here, is it possible that the recent sharp decline is over?  Was it just a blip on the radar of this bull move higher?  We'll know in due time but I'm still believing that there is more near term downside to come.  Some of the short term technical indicators for the S&P have fallen but they're not completely oversold yet.  Yes things could simply go up from here but the other reliable sell signal that was triggered shows a much deeper decline when activated.  I am still a believer in that.  I do not think that we will turn around right here and march on to new all time highs.  I could be wrong.  Tomorrow should be interesting and may tell quite a lot.  What was open in Asia was lower, while Europe finished higher.  We've got AAPL earnings after the bell and the Fed tomorrow.  Should be a busy day.

Down we go as the Dow fell 454 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Stock indexes opened with a gap lower and continued to sell off throughout the session.  The short term technical indicators have all rolled over and we're not oversold yet.  The S&P 500 has broken its up trend line that began in October.  It looks like we've missed the chance to purchase the SPY February puts but maybe not.  The next technical expectation is a return to the broken up trend line unless we just go straight down from here.  The China virus will be the reason given but we know the market was overextended on several indicators.  Not to mention the sell signal that we got from a pretty reliable indicator that simply took a while to manifest itself.  That is why I'm pretty confident that any upside from here can be shorted.  The trouble is that we may just go straight down.  GE lost 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was up about $8 on the futures, while the US dollar was a bit higher.  The gold shares lost ground though, with the XAU losing 1 2/3 and GDX down 1/8.  Volume was average.  My GDX February calls are still in the black.  It was also a one day reversal for the gold shares to the downside.  That tells me that the decline here in stocks is for real and not just the minor sell offs that we've seen lately.  Traders are selling what they have to meet margin calls.  Now I could be wrong in my assessment so we'll watch and see what occurs in the coming days to be sure.  It certainly isn't a positive when the gold shares decline in the face of gold gains.  But I don't think that it is as negative for the gold shares as it looks.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm a bit annoyed that I just didn't buy some SPY puts on Friday.  Once again I just wasn't quick enough during the trading session to do what was called for.  Hopefully I won't make that mistake if we see some kind of snap back to the trend line rally.  However the option premiums are now all blown out and very overpriced each direction.  So the timing of the SPY February put purchase will have to be pretty good if there is any money to be made.  At this point I can only watch, wait and be ready if the opportunity presents itself.  The VIX blasted up to the 19 level today.  The short term indicators are just about completely overbought already.  Another negative session should do the trick there.  We've got the Fed meeting for the next two days.  Perhaps something positive out of there will provide us with a bump up to buy the puts.  We can only hope at this point.  What markets that were open in Asia and Europe got slammed.  China is now closed for the rest of the week due to the holiday and virus.  I don't expect any quick turnarounds tonight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

They don't usually ring a bell at the top but I believe today they did as the Dow fell 170 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were a little over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving down.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, especially the S&P 500.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over.  We now have our cue to get the SPY February puts.  It might already be too late but if we see some upside next week we might get a chance.  The China virus going worldwide is the excuse for the sell off.  But the technical indicators have been calling for some downside for quite a while.  I think that today is just the beginning but I don't expect some kind of total collapse or bear market.  However there should be enough of a decline to profit from the puts if you're up to the task.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains good.  Staying above the 50 day moving average here for now.  Gold found safe haven buyers, the futures rose $8.  The US dollar found haven buyers as well and finished higher for the session again.  The XAU climbed 1 7/8, while GDX added 1/2 on average volume.  The technical indicators here still have room to go higher in the short term but this rally seems a bit tepid at best.  My GDX calls are now solidly in the black.  With 4 weeks still to go in the February option cycle, this trade can still go either way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked higher today and is now above its 50 day moving average.  It made it as high as just shy of 16 today.  The question is whether that's it for now or is this an initiation move to begin an extended decline?  My guess is the latter but of course I could be wrong and often am.  The S&P 500 didn't break its up trend line that has been in place since October.  The NASDAQ is still far from it.  However a couple of the other major stock indices have broken that line to the downside.  Usually the NASDAQ leads the way down and the fact that it isn't now has to be taken into consideration.  So there will be plenty to consider over the weekend when reviewing the charts.  I do however favor a bearish outcome with what's about to happen here.  Europe and what was open in Asia were generally higher to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

It was a one day reversal back to the upside for some of the major stock indices but not the Dow as it lost 26 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market fared better than the Dow.  Concerns over the latest pandemic from China drove foreign markets lower and the Dow began the day with a gap to the downside.  We were off over 200 points during the session.  But as has been the case during this seemingly never ending rally, buyers came in and we clawed our way back.  Perhaps this will help to set me up next week to purchase the SPY February puts.  Nothing has changed despite the price fluctuation today.  Still overbought and in need of a correction.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold rose $4 on the futures and the US dollar was up on the session as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX February calls are losing premium but are still showing a profit.  I will hold them as long as the up trend line for GDX stays intact.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a spike up today but then turned around and closed below the 50 day moving average once again.  My guess is that stocks will rally here into the end of the month.  We'll have a couple more new all time highs for the S&P and probably for the Dow as well.  That will hopefully set things up for the February puts.  However we all know that the market will go where it wants.  We have though been overbought for quite some time.  Some of the sentiment indicators are showing rabid optimism.  Conditions such as these never end in a good way for the bulls.  It is the timing of the decline that is the ongoing dilemma.  I can't say what will trigger things to the downside but we'll know in due time.  Europe and Asia were down again last night on the Chinese virus fears.  Some overseas market will be closed tomorrow for the lunar new year.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The Dow had a one day reversal to the downside as it opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index shed nine points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is back to moving sideways.  The Dow was up over 100 at one point during the day.  So the price action was anything but positive.  I am still considering the SPY February puts but would like to wait for the premiums to come down a little.  However the market doesn't wait for anyone.  We're still short term overbought any way you look at it.  No news to speak of to justify the move lower throughout the session.  GE was off over 1/4 and the volume remains average.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  My GDX February calls are still in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains in a holding pattern below its 50 day moving average.  It also is oversold on the majority of its technical indicators.  The ideal scenario here would be for the VIX to touch its lower Bollinger band and that would be the time to try the SPY puts.  The market rarely cooperates.  Today price action for stocks was anything but positive and a decline tomorrow would not be a surprise.  The TRAN has already started to drop and if it's the leader now you know which way we are going to go.  The problem is that we don't know if it's a leader or not.  I am trying to at least let this week go by before attempting the SPY puts.  That's the goal for now.  But the market goes where it wants.  I cannot ignore the sell signal given by a pretty reliable indicator but the timing has been late.  If we don't start to drop by sometime next week that sell signal would be invalid.  Hasn't happened yet.  Europe was lower and Asia higher in the overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

A lower start to the week as the Dow fell 152 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trying to grind higher.  I'm not sure what to make of todays price action.  We bounced up and down all session.  Perhaps a top is finally trying to be put in.  A virus scare from China didn't help the bullish cause not did the beginning of the impeachment trail.  But it wasn't a complete sell off as the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The TRAN took a good beating though.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was average.  Gold was only down a buck or two and did finish well above the lows on the day.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 1/2.  Volume was slightly better than average.  I did place an open order overnight for the GDX February calls.  It was somehow filled when the market opened even though the buy price was lower than the low for that contract on the day.  I certainly cannot explain that but it is showing a profit already.  The stop loss order is in and hopefully I'll manage this trade better that the last GDX attempt.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a move up today and we'll see if it follows through tomorrow.  I would like to get some SPY February puts at some point.  This may be the correct time or not as we have remained overbought for an extended period.  The trouble is that the option premiums for SPY are very high due to the extra week in the February option cycle.  I suppose that I will try and let this week go by and take it from there.  It is a short week with the Monday holiday behind us.  However the market is certainly not going to wait for me and if we do start to drop I may just have to jump on board.  Overbought has been the condition for weeks on end and it will not last forever.  Europe and Asia were lower as selling took place globally.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Another day, another gain as the Dow added 50 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is grinding higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Overbought, staying that way and it appears that there's just no end to this rally.  Money simply continues to flow into stocks without any thought of a decline that lasts for more than a day or two at most.  Getting to the parabolic stage and that never ends well.  But to time the end is the ongoing question.  I do believe that the February SPY puts will at some point be the proper play.  I'm not sure when but I will be trying that trade at some point.  There is no overhead resistance though and the market is ignoring any bad news that might arise at this time.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU lost a point, while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was average.  Gold up and the gold shares down.  That isn't a positive but I will try the GDX February calls if GDX gets back to the 28 level which coincides with the recent up trend line for the gold shares.  We're about a half a point away.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Overall booked a loss this week and I'm not exactly pleased with that.  The game goes on though.  My trading tactics will be better in the future.  Going forward I've already put some things in place to make that happen.  My main mistake so far this month was really not locking in a solid profit when I had it.  Of course the SPY trade was a disaster but it was while since I'd traded that instrument.  Obviously I forgot how fast that thing moves and how tough it is to trade.  I'll try to remember those things going forward.  The VIX is down around 12 and remaining oversold.  Shorts have been squeezed again and again on the way up.  I guess we can look for a blow off top and consider the SPY puts after that.  The indicators just aren't working in this sustained upside environment.  The sell signal that I received from one of the indicators should take effect by the end of the month.  If that fails, I really don't know what to say.  Hasn't failed yet unless we don't see any downside in the February option cycle.  I am counting on it to work.  Plenty of charts to go over this weekend although most are simply overbought and continuing to rally.  Long holiday weekend for US traders, so enjoy the time off.  Europe and Asia were higher as money chases stocks around the world.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

The Dow took off to the upside today and gained 267 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving up.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal on Tuesday for a big move in the next two sessions and today confirms that.  I dumped my SPY January puts for a huge 95% loss.  Obviously they should have been sold yesterday at the latest.  My mistake there was also not putting in the stop loss order after being filled.  Not to mention that the trade idea was wrong from the beginning.  The negative RSI divergence signal is no longer on the daily chart.  I'm still a believer in the other sell signal that I received from a different indicator.  I'll be trying the SPY February puts at some point in the future.  The expiration week positive bias is strong this time around.  A run higher into the expiration wasn't out of the question and we're seeing that now take place.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold was slightly lower on the futures while the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm also going to try the GDX February calls again if we get back to the up trend line there.  It is currently at the 28 level.  If it breaks through the up trend line then the trade is off.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the big loss on the SPY put trade.  If that idea didn't work right away a loss was inevitable and I would simply try again in the February option cycle.  The question is from what point to start the trade.  There is no overhead resistance and the VIX remains oversold.  The oversold condition can last for a while and that is the case this time around.  I'll just have to keep an eye on things and be ready when the time is right.  Easier said than done.  I'll let Friday go by into the long holiday weekend and take it from there.  Asia was generally higher and Europe was mixed.  It seems that much of the money flow is into the US at this time.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

New all time highs just keep on coming as the Dow gained 91 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trying to move higher but it is sideways in my view.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The US/China trade deal was signed but nobody really cared since it was announced weeks ago.  I'm still holding on to my losing SPY January put trade.  I should have just taken the loss early this morning and been done with it.  It appears that the market will hold on here for expiration week.  After that, who knows.  No overhead resistance for stocks but I'm still looking for a decent decline here soon.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold rallied around $10 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added two points, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  I did sell  my GDX January calls in the morning for a small 40% profit.  I could have doubled that if I had held them longer into the session.  However that was a trade that I mismanaged all the way through except for the lucky entry point that I had.  The profits there could have been so much better but I just wasn't up to the task.  I do like the February calls there for the next trade as the weekly up trend line is still intact.  If we get back to that line in the next couple of weeks, I'll try the calls there again.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, up early and lousy trading tactics.  Unfortunately the market did not cooperate with what I needed to happen today.  With only a couple days to go in the January option cycle, I'll need some early selling tomorrow to cut the loss on the SPY trade.  The VIX remains oversold as volatility has taken a vacation.  This condition won't last forever.  Earnings aren't providing much emphasis one way or the other so far.  Looks like I'll simply have to book the SPY loss tomorrow and go from there.  Asia and Europe were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines in tonights trading and see how things open tomorrow.

The Dow added another 32 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is basically moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today, the opposite of yesterday.  The US/China trade deal was back in the headlines via tariffs.  The deal is to be signed tomorrow and I'm hoping it's a sell on the news event.  Pretty much everyone knows the deal is done and there shouldn't be any surprises either positive or negative.  But you never know.  The negative RSI divergence remains in place for the S&P 500.  Hasn't meant anything yet.  My SPY January puts are still in the red and I should be getting rid of them tomorrow regardless.  Three days to go in the January option cycle.  GE was off a dime on light volume.  Gold dropped below the important $1550 level but did come up from the lows of the session.  It finished slightly lower.  The US dollar was little changed again.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  My GDX January calls somehow made it back to a slight profit.  Should dump these tomorrow as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a bit of volatility back in the market today when it was announced that the tariffs on Chinas goods would remain in place for the rest of the year.  That's a trade deal?  Regardless, the VIX did perk up but then fell back to near its low of the day.  I suppose I'll simply have to see how we open tomorrow and go from there.  The timing of the entry to the SPY put trade was off and that's a loss waiting to happen when there is only a week to go in the option cycle.  We're still short term overbought for the S&P but the indicators are starting to roll over.  However with only three days left for the January option cycle, there isn't really time to wait and see what will happen.  It's possible that things will be quiet and we simply wander in to the end of the week.  A holiday weekend is coming up as well.  Europe and Asia were both higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how they react to the tariff announcement tonight.

The Dow rose 82 points to begin the week on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving back up.  New all time highs for some of the major stock indices including the S&P 500.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  I did purchase some SPY January puts and they are already showing a loss.  The negative RSI divergence remains in place but it has not triggered any selling.  Another day like today and the divergence will be gone.  This trade already feels like a loser with only four days to go in the January option cycle.  GE gained 3/8 on average volume.  Gold fell ten bucks and is now right at the important level of $1550.  If this doesn't hold the breakout that occurred will be false.  The US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU fell two points, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was average.  My GDX January calls are now losers.  Not much time left here as well.  A total mismanagement of this trade has turned it into a loser.  Not oversold yet for the gold shares so there could be more to go on the downside here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the losses.  I'll try the SPY puts again for the February option cycle if this current trade fails.  The sell signal from the one indicator that usually works sometimes takes a little time to kick in.  It should be worth at least 25 SPY points when it gets started.  The VIX is now oversold but get remain that way if the rally continues.  With no overhead resistance there is the possibility that it will.  Earnings begin this week and that could turn things around perhaps.  The US/China trade deal gets signed on Wednesday, perhaps that will mark the top as all the good news will be out.  However it would not be a surprise if the positive expiration week positive bias simply remains in effect and we grind our way higher.  In that case the SPY put trade will be dead.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.     

The employment report came in a bit light and the Dow fell 133 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to trend sideways.  I placed an order for the SPY January puts but it wasn't filled.  I may try again on Monday if we get some upside then.  The negative RSI divergence on the daily SPY chart is still there.  It's still valid unless we see a substantial rally from here.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a big move in the next couple of sessions.  I'm not sure todays move qualifies but it could.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Gold bounced around $7 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX rose 3/8.  Volume was lighter here.  I'm still holding on to my GDX January calls for now.  I should get rid of them early next week unless we get some kind of outside influence in the gold market.  Think another US/Iran military escalation.  The calls are still showing a slight profit so I may escape without a loss there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX almost made it down to 12 today.  We are not yet completely oversold there but I'm willing to try the SPY puts next week if there's market strength on Monday.  It may already be too late depending on what happens over the weekend.  In my mind the sell signal is already there and at the least the February option cycle should be good for some more than usual downside.  As usual the timing is the tricky part to get right.  There will be plenty of economic data due out and it is options expiration week.  What will the market focus on is the question that needs to be answered.  Todays negative session did turn the short term technical indicators for the S&P lower.  Plus we are overdue for a decline.  But the market goes where it wants.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a strategy for next week.  Asia was up and Europe slightly down to close out the trading week overseas.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

New all time highs abound as the Dow gained 212 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Nothing in the way of higher prices as the geo-political tensions are over for now.  There's no overhead resistance.  There is still the negative RSI divergence in the S&P 500 along with my other indicator that is flashing a sell signal.  I did place an order for the SPY January puts but it wasn't filled.  I will probably try this again tomorrow after the employment report.  I could be wrong here as we've broken out to the upside from the recent consolidation.  But as long as the negative divergence remains in place, the chance for a decline persists.  I do think that the February option cycle will show lower prices and perhaps I'll just wait for that.  GE was off a few cents but the volume was very light.  Gold continued lower as the futures lost over $5.  The $1550 level has held there for now.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was slightly above average.  My GDX January calls are somehow still showing a slight profit.  I'm most likely going to hold on to them over the weekend at least but I did overstay my welcome on this trade.  This was a time where selling early was the proper strategy.  I obviously didn't do that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is now below its 50 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators here still have room to move lower before becoming oversold.  So perhaps sitting things out on the January SPY puts may be the best strategy after all.  I may be placing too much emphasis on the negative RSI divergence in the S&P 500.  If the index keeps moving higher the divergence will be negated.  There is a chance that's what will happen here.  However if I miss the trade, I won't be pleased with that result either.  The trading is never easy.  Europe and Asia rallies as markets around the globe breath a sigh of relief for now.  We'll see if the jobs report tomorrow has anything new to add to the picture.  End of the week tomorrow. 

US and Iran tensions eased today so the Dow rallied 161 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was up 280 before a drop in the final half hour of trading.  This is a very volatile period for stocks to begin the new year.  Headline risk is at the forefront and positions can change overnight.  We are still short term overbought for the S&P 500.  Perhaps today was the time to try the SPY January puts but I certainly didn't have the guts to give it a try.  Perhaps in the next couple of days.  GE was off 1/8 but the volume was light.  Gold had a one day downside reversal after trading above $1600, the futures closed $40 lower and off around $15 for the day.  The US dollar was higher.  The gold shares got crushed as traders exited their long positions.  The XAU lost 4 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/8.  Volume was heavy.  The short term indicators have now rolled over here.  My GDX January calls lost most of their profit today but are still somehow in the black.  As long as gold holds above the breakout of $1550, this trade will have a chance at being profitable.  If that level doesn't hold then the trade will most likely turn into a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The technical indicators on the VIX remain mid-range despite the price movement on the S&P today.  So things still could go either way here.  The VIX does remain above its 50 day moving average.  The negative RSI indicator divergence is still in place for the S&P 500.  We've got the jobs report due on Friday but in this current market environment it may not matter unless there's a huge surprise.  Seven days left in the January option cycle.  Asia lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what kind of headlines we get tonight and take it from there.

Back to the downside for the Dow as it lost 119 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now going sideways.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over.  That isn't the case for the NASDAQ, so there's a chance for a positive resolution to the stall that we've seen here.  I'm still inclined to try the SPY January puts if the opportunity presents itself.  But I am running out of time.  Still in headline risk mode.  GE was off almost a dime and the volume remains good here.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures today and the US dollar was higher as well.  Gold remains overbought to the extreme but hasn't seen any selling due to the current geo-political background.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators on the VIX are mid-range at the moment.  So things could go either way there.  My hope is that it moves lower as the S&P trends higher to give me a shot at the SPY January puts.  However the market rarely cooperates with what you hope for.  If we can get a nominal new high in the S&P 500 I think that will be the time to try the puts.  If that doesn't happen we'll just have to wait for the February option cycle.  My GDX January calls are still showing a profit and I plan on holding them until sometime next week.  Or if gold somehow keeps going up and hits $1600, I may sell them then.  But we all know things can turn on a dime in this game.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 68 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving higher but not at a steep rate.  Plenty of geo-political international angst over the weekend between the US and the Middle east, specifically Iran.  However the market refuses to sell off on an extended basis here and that cannot be overlooked.  We're still overbought and there is a negative RSI divergence.  I'm trying to figure out if I should try the January SPY Puts at some point in the next two weeks or wait until we move into the February option cycle.  I am convinced the puts will work here with a very reliable sell signal in place on a certain indicator.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was pretty heavy.  Gold broke through the resistance at $1550 but came well off of it best levels on the session.  The futures gained $15 but were up more than twice that.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were mixed on slight moves with average volume.  The lack of upside for the gold shares here is a concern.  That,  combined with the extreme overbought condition of the precious metals themselves leads me to believe that some kind of pullback is imminent.  I am still holding on to my GDX January calls though as selling early has been a mistake that I've made in the past.  So is holding on too long but I'm inclined for now to just stay put with this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had another big reversal day as well.  If it can get back to around the 12 level this week, I'll try the SPY January puts.  I do think that we are going to set a new all time high in the coming days.  The market has had every reason to sell off here and it just keeps coming back.  That is strength my friends but it won't last forever.  The February option premiums are now high due to the recent volatility and the extra week of time on them.  So attempting to purchase them is not what I'd really like to do at this time.  I do think I'll stick with a shorter time frame and try and see if the SPY January puts will work for me.  The headline risk remains in the forefront now.  Any trade will be even riskier than usual.  I'll keep my eyes open for the possibilities going forward.  Along with monitoring the ongoing GDX call trade.  It has been an interesting start to the new year.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and take it from there.

An overnight air strike in Iraq by the US dominated todays price action as the Dow fell 234 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still trending up.  Yesterdays positive market action was negated by the overnight developments.  We are still short term overbought though.  It's now anybody's guess as to what transpires over the weekend.  I still favor the SPY puts but I may have to go out to the February option cycle.  I'll know more after checking things over the weekend.  We now do have the negative divergence on the daily RSI indicator for the S&P.  But we also have already dropped pretty good today but that wasn't something that could have been foreseen.  All players should return on Monday and perhaps I'll have a better feel for things then.  GE was up a few cents in a down market and the volume was pretty good again.  Gold took off on the safe haven play.  The futures rose $20.  The US dollar finished little changed though.  The gold shares didn't participate and that's a bearish sign.  The XAU was down a point and GDX lost over 1/8.  Volume was average and the short term indicators have rolled over.  The gold shares were due for a pause but when the precious metal is up twenty bucks, you would expect some buying there.  Didn't happen as traders cashed in on their recent gains.  I was not one of them as I continue to hold my GDX January calls.  Still profitable but won't stay that way if we see a drop next week.  I'm looking for consolidation before moving higher but there isn't a lot of time for that to occur.  Gold also now is at the resistance level of $1550 and extremely overbought.  The odds of it breaking through here are not favorable in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX soared again today but did finish off of its best level.  If it can somehow move back towards the 12 level, I may try the SPY puts on a short term basis.  We're back in a headline risk environment as last nights action demonstrates.  It is not the ideal trading atmosphere.  But we'll have to take what we get and go from there.  My hope is that the gold shares trend sideways and then return to rally mode but that is asking a lot in just a couple of weeks.  I do think that the overall stock market is vulnerable here and thought that before the air strike in Iraq.  I'll have to watch the headlines out of the Middle east this weekend and check all the charts as usual.  Asia and Europe were lower to close the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market took off to the upside to begin the new year as the Dow soared 330 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive but not as much as an up 300 market would indicate.  The summation index is now moving back up.  New all time highs again and we now have the chance for the negative RSI divergence to take place.  However with no overhead resistance the market may simply just keep going higher.  My SPY January put idea may be flawed.  I did place a couple orders for the SPY puts today but canceled them as the market moved higher.  I may or may not leave an open order for this idea overnight.  I do expect a decline here soon due to the signal that I received form a reliable indicator but it may not occur until the February option cycle.  We are still short term overbought for the S&P.  GE climbed 3/4 on heavy volume.  That's the highest it's been in over a year.  Gold was up $8 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX were mixed and seem to have stalled here.  Volume was light.  My GDX January calls are still in the black.  However the gold shares have not followed the metal higher here and that's a concern going forward.  We are also plenty short term overbought for both gold and the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX is headed back towards 12 and the short term indicators have a bit more room to go lower.  At this point I'm beginning to think that perhaps I should wait on purchasing the SPY puts until the February option cycle.  I'll ponder that tonight.  Everyone should be back at their desks on Monday if they haven't already returned.  Will we get another run up that day and will that be the ideal time to get short?  That's another question that needs to be answered.  For now it appears that the market has nowhere to go but up but we know that won't last forever.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the new year.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The market made a nice comeback in the final hour of the trading year and the Dow rose 76 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were short of being 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving up but the trend has lessened and is sideways in my view.  Another real positive advance/decline ratio may change that.  Today looks to me like front running what we expect to be a positive start to the new year on Thursday.  I'm still looking at the January SPY puts though.  I may get them before the end of the week.  I'm waiting for a new high with a lower RSI.  May or may not happen.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was good considering it's the end of the year.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar continued lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares are due for a rest.  I am still holding my GDX January calls.  If my market scenario of a drop in early January pans out, this trade should hold up.  If not, the gains will not be as good as they could be.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX rolled back down today and that is good news for the potential SPY January put trade.  A move back down to the 12 level here will help with the set up for a decline.  The market could just keep going up during the January option cycle as well.  As always timing of the entry will be important along with not getting greedy if this trade does come to pass.  I'd expect money and optimism to be prevalent on Thursday.  Where we go after that is the question.  No really important economic data due the rest of the week.  We will get the Fed minutes on Friday.  It is still a holiday mode mood on the street.  Europe and Asia were lower in what market that were open.  We'll ring in the new year tonight and get ready for Thursdays open.  Happy New Year everyone. 

A downer Monday as the Dow fell 183 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is beginning to go sideways.  Long overdue for some downside and we finally got some today.  My fear here is that I may have missed the chance for the SPY January outs if we simply continue to head lower.  We are still short term overbought on the major indices with plenty of room to drop on the indicators.  I won't chase things here because I am looking for a positive money flow start to the new year on Thursday.  However if that doesn't materialize, the down move will have been missed.  GE was off a dime on OK volume for the still holiday mode mood of the market.  Gold played catch up on the futures as it is now comfortably above the $1500 level.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up two points, while GDX rose 5/8.  Volume was light.  Still pretty overbought for the gold shares but in rallies it stays that way.  My GDX January calls remain with a nice profit.  I'm not sure how long I'll hold on to this trade but I do have an objective in mind.  I usually sell to early when things get going so I'll hope I don't hold on too long this time around.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has already taken off which leads me to believe that I may have missed the short side boat here.  The signal that I got has proven to be correct so far.  If it is valid we've got a lot lower to go.  It seems to be the case at the moment.  The VIX did stop at its 200 day moving average.  Perhaps that will hold things here.  If we can get a small rally from here in stocks perhaps we'll get the negative RSI divergence that I'm looking for.  Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is out there.  We'll know what's going on as the week progresses.  End of the year tomorrow and I would expect a light volume session with perhaps some more selling.  Just a guess as usual.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll say goodbye to 2019 tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow added 23 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues to move higher.  The NASDAQ was lower today.  I had an order for the SPY January puts but it wasn't filled.  I still like this idea but perhaps today was the day to purchase.  We still remain very overbought on all time frames.  I'll have to check things over again this weekend but I think that waiting to get the puts could be the right choice.  Ideally I'd like to purchase them the first trading day of the new year on strength.  But we all know that the market rarely cooperates.  GE lost a nickel and the volume was light.  Gold was slightly higher as the US dollar dropped.  The XAU fell almost a point, while GDX shed about 1/4.  Volume was light.  My GDX January calls are still showing a profit.  Overbought now for the gold shares.  However if my prognosis for a decline is correct, the gold shares should rise on a flight to safety.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX climbed today.  My hope is that the expected decline in the S&P isn't already underway.  You really can't read too much into what happens during a holiday week.  I'll expect most players to return at least by the beginning of the new year on Thursday.  Make no mistake about my position here.  I think that the upside is limited and that we will see a decent drop at the beginning of the new year.  Whether it occurs in the January or February option cycle is the question that needs to be answered.  I'm prepared to try either or both.  I'll go over all the charts this weekend and be ready to go on Monday.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Santa Claus rally is in full swing as the Dow gained 106 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Overbought to the extreme for the major stock indices.  I did place an order for the SPY January puts and I'm leaving it open overnight.  Going parabolic in the S&P at this point but you just don't know when it will end.  it always ends badly though.  I don't know how long this will last and I'll probably be early with the puts.  However I'm getting a solid sell signal from an indicator that usually works and doesn't give a signal that often.  That is why I'm confident that the SPY puts will work here and if not, then in the February option cycle.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold continues higher as the futures rose a dozen.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX added 3/8.  Volume was good.  Due for a rest now for gold and the gold shares.  My GDX January calls are showing a nice profit.  I do believe that there is further to go on the upside here in the next three weeks.  We'll see about that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Light volume and higher prices as holiday mode on Wall Street is in session.  We're hitting new all time highs on a daily basis with seemingly nothing stopping the rally.  Perhaps we can continue higher into the beginning of the new year next week.  I'll all for trying the SPY January puts here but not exactly sure on the timing.  When things get like this, there is no telling how high we will go before reality sets in and the drop begins.  I'd like to somehow take advantage of that.  The light volume is another indicator of just how precarious this levitation is at this point.  So I'll leave in my open order for some puts and see what happens.  What was open in Europe and Asia was higher overnight.  We'll see how the week closes tomorrow.

Pretty much running in place in todays shortened trading session as the Dow fell 36 points on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  This is a tough week to make much sense of because a lot of players aren't going to the office.  Although I wanted to wait for a negative RSI divergence before attempting the SPY January puts, another signal that I'm looking at is flashing sell.  This signal has preceded at least twenty point moves lower for the SPY in the past.  It sometimes takes a while before the drop and other times it is right away.  So I'll most likely be looking to buy some puts on strength Thursday.  If we don't get a quick drop, I'll try this idea again in the February option cycle.  The S&P remains overbought both short and medium term.  GE was up a few cents on the same extremely light volume.  Gold found buyers as it is indeed breaking its down trend line from autumn.  The precious metal futures were up $15 and are just below $1500.  The US dollar was flat.  The XAU was up 3 1/3, while GDX gained over 3/4.  Volume was very good for the shortened session.  My GDX January calls are showing a solid profit at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and oversold.  The ideal scenario for me here would be a lower VIX Thursday with a nice gain in SPY.  The market rarely cooperates.  Only four trading days left this year and I would expect more tax loss selling than anything else.  It is a holiday week with thin trading.  I suppose that I'll simply wait to see how we open on Thursday and go from there.  I think that the upside is now limited from here and that the odds favor lower prices in the month or two ahead.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher last night.  Merry Christmas everyone and we'll be back at it on Thursday.

The Dow tacked on another 96 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market didn't gain as much as the Dow.  overbought and overdue for some kind of pause in the rally.  I'm still interested in the SPY January puts as soon as I see a negative divergence in the SPY daily RSI.  The Santa Claus rally time period begins tomorrow.  Markets close early as well and don't reopen until Thursday.  It is holiday mode all week.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  Gold rose $8 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU climbed 3 3/4, while GDX gained over 3/4.  Volume was heavy.  I noticed over the weekend that silver had just broken its declining tops line that began in early September.  Last night I noticed that gold was starting to move up and any gain today would break through its declining tops line as well.  I placed an open order for some GDX January calls and it somehow got filled early this morning.  It is showing a profit.  I am wary of this trade though because some of the individual gold stocks are extremely overbought.  The trade could work though if GDX can finally get past the 28 level.  The favorable seasonal factor could work in the trades favor as well.  But we all know markets go where they want and there is plenty of time left in the January option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and continues to be oversold.  The S&P 500 remains overbought both short and medium term.  The consensus now is fairly bullish and that's another reason that I'm looking at the SPY January puts here.  I may have to wait for the beginning of next year though before a signal is furnished.  Plus the idea could just be wrong as markets have a tendency to move higher than anyone thinks during sustained rallies like the one that we're in right now.  So we'll see what happens.  Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher overnight.  Light volume shortened session due tomorrow.

The Dow closed the week with a gain of 74 points on extremely heavy expiration related volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Overbought and staying that way as we hit new all time highs on a daily basis now.  I don't know how much higher that we'll go here but I am content to wait for a sell signal at this point.  I'll continue to watch the indicator that has worked well in the past.  I'll also be on the lookout for a negative RSI divergence but we are not there yet.  GE was unchanged on heavy volume.  Gold was little changed but the US dollar was higher on the day.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was average.  I'm still waiting for GDX to get oversold on a daily basis and will probably go out to the February option cycle there.  Although I'm not exactly sure if that idea is going to be correct.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is in rally mode and the VIX is low.  Although the VIX remains oversold it doesn't mean that the rally in stocks is over.  Until we get some kind of sell signal the trend is up.  We now enter holiday mode for the market with Christmas in the middle of next week.  The Santa Claus rally time period begins on the 24th.  We should expect a flow of money into the market at the beginning of the year as well.  So I probably should at least wait until then to attempt the SPY puts.  For now it will be more going over the charts and trying to remain patient.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for some rest.

We got some upside today as the Dow rolled ahead 137 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines remain positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Money is looking for a place to go and stocks seem to be it.  No news to explain the rally except that Trump was impeached.  The market obviously doesn't care.  Plenty overbought here any way that you look at it.  I'm waiting for my sell signal to take hold and that may take some time.  Too late in my mind to try the SPY calls here.  In retrospect the December calls were the way to go.  Triple witching tomorrow and that should skew the volume higher.  Holiday mode after that.  GE was up a few cent and the volume was light.  Gold was up $5 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed as well on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and that condition could persist.  No overhead resistance for stocks and that's a plus for the bulls.  In rallies the overbought condition can last for quite a while.  That is the position that we find ourselves in today.  I do not expect a sell off with the holidays upon us but I could be wrong.  Business trading for the most part will finish for the year tomorrow as many players will be home for the holidays.  My hope is that things set up for a decline in the beginning of January, which would be the best possible scenario for my ideas.  The February option cycle has an extra month in it and that will make the SPY puts pricey if the signal sets up for that time frame.  We'll simply have to watch and wait.  Many of the negatives for the market are out of the way so we'll also have to see how high things can go here in the near term.  We haven't even reached the days for the Santa Claus rally yet which will begin on the 24th.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

More running in place today as the Dow fell 26 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  No news to speak of beyond the impeachment drama.  But this is already baked into the market in my humble opinion.  Everybody knows that it isn't going to lead to the dismissal of the president.  That's the consensus at least for now.  Still short term overbought for the major averages as we get through options expiration week.  I'm basically waiting to buy the SPY puts in the next couple of weeks.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume picked up a little.  Gold was little changed again and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up a point, while GDX gained about 1/3.  Volume was light.  The technical indicators for GDX are now mid-range.  As much as I'd like to try the calls here, I really am trying to wait until things get solidly oversold.  That hasn't happened in quite a few weeks as the gold shares continue to languish in a trading range.  The seasonal pattern is for a rise now into January.  The trading is never easy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Very overbought on some of the indicators that I have for the S&P.  That doesn't mean a collapse is around the corner but the upside in the near term could be tough sledding.  The VIX remains oversold as well.  Once again I'm trying to be patient here as the holiday week coming up should be pretty uninspiring.  At least I have a couple of ideas in the works if things pan out according to plan.  I don't want to miss out on the gold shares but I must say that the fundamental picture there is lacking.  Still, gains into the new year cannot be ruled out.  I suppose I'll let this week pass and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see if the market has any response to the impending impeachment in tomorrows session.

A day of hanging around for the most part as the Dow gained 29 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock averages.  I have decided that my next SPY trade will be the January or February puts.  One of the indicators that I follow is about to give a very reliable sell signal.  I am waiting for that to happen.  This indicator doesn't give a signal that often but it is very reliable.  Once the signal is triggered the market could fall immediately or take a short time for a top to form.  Either way if I attempt this idea and it doesn't work right away, I'll simply try it again.  So I'm being patient for now and watching how high we go before the indicator gives the signal.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was lighter.  Gold finished little changed again and the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm waiting for the gold shares to get oversold before trying the calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is oversold and starting to move sideways.  I'm guessing that it will remain in this condition for the rest of the month.  As I've already said, after this week the market will be in full holiday mode.  Especially with Christmas falling right in the middle of the week.  Most offices will have limited staff on hand until the new year.  Most trading business for 2019 will occur this week.  This will also be highlighted by the option expiration on Friday.  So for me it's a matter of being patient and waiting for the anticipated sell signal on the S&P 500.  That is the game plan for now.  Europe was mixed, with Asia higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Perhaps it was a delayed reaction to the US/China trade deal but the Dow rose 100 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The Dow was up 200 points during the session, so that got cut in half.  It's options expiration week ahead of a holiday week.  Any trading business that needs to be done will most likely happen in the next 4 days.  We are short term overbought but the overall market is much stronger than the Dow here and that's a plus.  New all time highs for many stock indices as there is no overhead resistance.  That doesn't mean that we'll simply go straight up but the path of least resistance is higher.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold was flat on the session, while the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU lost a point and GDX was down 1/3.  Volume was light.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares appear to be rolling over here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is back around 12 and getting oversold.  You've got to expect higher prices here as most of the uncertainty is now out of the way.  The market still has the impending impeachment to deal with but for now it seems like that will be a non event.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  I'm still considering the GDX calls if we roll over here but will most likely go out to the February option cycle if I do.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how tomorrow goes.

The trade deal is done for now but we didn't see much of a rally.  The Dow rose 3 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The market rallies, then sold off and finished about mid-range of the days movement.  We also got the election in England out of the way as well.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and we've got some potential negative divergences in place as well.  Just a week to go in The December option cycle.  Yes, I'd like to maybe try the SPY puts here but the lack of time remaining is a concern.  The market had every right to take off to the upside today but it didn't.  Perhaps shorting any strength on Monday is the way to go but I'll have to think about it over the weekend.  GE was down a dime on average volume.  Gold was up over $5 on the futures.  The US dollar continued lower which has been supportive of gold here.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Gold has held up well here and is a seasonal area of strength.  We are overbought on the gold shares though and although I'd like to try the GDX calls it's hard for me to do with the indicators at high levels.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Retail sales came in lighter than expected.  The VIX fell below the 50 day moving average and had decent drop.  However this did not translate into a rally for stocks.  Not sure what that means.  I'll have to check the charts over the weekend and decide what to do from there.  I do think that after next week the market will be in holiday mode for a couple of weeks.  That should slow down the volume and the volatility potential.  So maybe it's this week or nothing when it comes to the next trade.  However there are no clear trading signals, just leanings towards this way or that.  I'll have plenty of time in the next couple days to decide what to do or not do.  Unlike the US, Europe and Asia saw rallies to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

More talk of a US/China trade deal finally coming to fruition drove stocks higher today.  Of course it hasn't happened yet and we've heard all this before.  Nonetheless the Dow soared 220 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Any end to this long trade dispute would be a good thing, just to get some uncertainty out of the way.  Perhaps the tariff deadline of the 15th won't matter if something concrete is announced before the close tomorrow.  But that's a lot of ifs.  The major stock indices remain overbought but there is room to move a bit higher on the short term technical indicators.  Some of the major indexes also hit new all time highs today and that cannot be overlooked.  If we do see a deal perhaps we'll really get going to the upside with no overhead resistance to stop things.  So tomorrow will probably be pretty interesting one way or the other.  GE was up almost 1/2 and volume expanded.  Gold fell almost $10 on the futures but made up ground in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was slightly lower, coming off of the worst levels for the session.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on OK volume.  The gold shares have held up rather well here but are overbought.  For some reason I'm still considering the GDX January calls if we get some more pullback there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The indicators on the VIX have rolled over and the VIX itself is moving lower.  It closed right on the 50 day moving average.  If a deal is announced tonight, the VIX will continue back down towards its recent low at 12.  That would produce a pretty good rally in stocks if that were to occur.  Hasn't happened yet.  Once this US/China tiff gets over with for now the next focus for the markets will be what?  Impeachment?  Interest rates?  Coming earnings?  There's always plenty of questions without simple answers in this game.  Six days to go in the December option cycle.  I'll probably have to pass on trading the SPY options here.  Perhaps I'll go out to February with the GDX call idea but that doesn't really match up with the seasonal rally that I'm expecting here.  I'll ponder this idea later tonight.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see if this trade deal actually gets done tonight and take it from there.

The Fed did nothing as expected and the Dow rose 29 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is grudgingly moving higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  With the Fed out of he way we'll look to some news on the December 15th tariff deadline.  The problem there is that we may not hear anything until the weekend when the markets are closed.  We're still overbought for most for the major stock indices.  I don't have any S&P trades in mind at the moment.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold rallied today and gained almost $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 2 3/4, while GDX added 5/8.  Volume was good.  It appears that I've missed the GDX January call trade yet again.  Not completely overbought now for the gold shares, so there's probably more room to go higher.  I may chase this trade yet but the ideal time once again has passed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The indicators on the VIX are rolling back over.  This would imply that we will see higher prices in the near future and likely new all time highs yet again.  The strength of the overall market today vs. the Dow basically says the same.  So my guess is that we'll get good news on the tariff front eventually and the market will rally on that.  We also have an election in England tonight that could affect the Brexit saga.  However this drama has been going on for years now and it doesn't really seem to be affecting the market in the US.  Not yet at least.  Retail sales data on Friday could be a mover but we've always got the 15th in the background.  We are in a favorable seasonal period for stocks so any decline should be short lived.  As we saw last week.  My thesis of a possible decline in the beginning of December has not panned out.  My trading plans and ideas haven't been up to snuff for a while.  That needs to change.  Europe and Asia were generally higher.  We'll see how things go tonight.     

Lower again today on the Fed waiting game.  The Dow lost 27 points on about average volume.  the advance/declines were just about even again.  The summation index is moving sideways now.  The market appears stalled now, waiting for the next catalyst.  Will it be the Fed tomorrow that gets things going?  Something new from the US/China trade war?  We've still got the deadline of the 15th looming in the background.  I'm not sure what to do here with regards to the SPY.  More overbought than oversold here.  Perhaps the sidelines is the place for me but I've been there for quite some time already.  Still a week and a half in the December option cycle.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Gold gained a few bucks while the US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up almost a point and GDX was up almost 1/4.  Volume was light.  The technical indicators now a mid-range for the gold shares.  I'm still looking at the GDX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Considering there isn't anything expected from the Fed, the market is acting pretty sluggish.  Perhaps the impending impeachment and trade deadline are the cause.  We are still just about to make new all times highs again if we can get some sort of rally.  We had a weird end of the day sell off today as well but the market came back from it in the final 5 minutes.  I guess we'll see what happens with the Fed tomorrow and go from there.  I was hoping that GDX would head down to the 26 level again before I attempt to buy the calls there again.  But the Bollinger bands are contracting, with the lower band now above the 26 level.  My thinking is that the GDX calls will be my next trade.  Europe and Asia were lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A lower start to the trading week as the Dow fell 105 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is trending up for now but not decidedly so.  The S&P has stalled right below new all time highs.  We could simply be waiting on the Fed announcement that occurs on Wednesday.  However nothing is expected out of that meeting, with rates to be unchanged according to most everyone.  I'm thinking that the lack of decent volume today suggests that there won't be a lot of downside here.  We are still at the mercy of the next headline though.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold finished little changed as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed as well on very light volume.  I'm still considering the January calls here as well as February now.  If GDX heads towards the 26 level I'll be inclined to give this idea another chance.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up today despite not much of a loss for the major averages.  I'm not exactly sure what that means but it would help with my set up for new all time highs this week if we don't drop from here.  You can make a bearish case here too, with a negative divergence in the daily RSI for the S&P.  But that is just a potential outcome for now.  We'll get inflation and retail sales data this week but I think that the most important thing coming up for the market is December 15th and the tariff question.  Any kind of deal or delay should propel prices higher.  With the opposite happening if the tariffs take effect.  It is a dangerous game to play if you are on the wrong side of the outcome.  Hopefully it gets solved before the weekend.  The market also has to deal with the impending impeachment of Trump but that doesn't seem to be an issue for stocks at the moment.  Subject to change as we move forward of course.  Asia was higher and Europe generally lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

The market powered higher today sparked by the good jobs numbers and the Dow climbed 337 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This will stop the summation index from moving lower but not exactly putting it back in an uptrend yet.  It has turned the short term technical indicators back up though on the daily charts of the major stock indices.  It has been quite a turnaround from the negative way that we started the week.  We do remain at the mercy of the next trade headline.  December 15th looms as the next important date as more tariffs are supposed to take effect.  If an agreement is reached beforehand you can expect more upside.  If not, then the opposite will probably occur.  Still plenty of time left in the December option cycle.  GE was up over 1/4 and the volume was good.  Gold took a hit and the futures fell over $15.  The US dollar rose a bit.  The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  The short term indicators have now rolled over here.  I'm thankful that I did not chase the gold shares this week.  If GDX makes it back towards the 26 level, I may still try the January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  New all time highs back in the picture for next week?  It appears to be heading that way.  There's also the potential for some negative divergences to show up as well.  The VIX has turned around and is back below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  But there's also still the chance that anything can happen when it comes to the geo-political trade war nonsense that we're in at the moment.  I'll continue to check the charts over the weekend and go from there.  Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Pretty much a day on hold as we bounced around and ended up with the Dow ahead by 28 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  There's still plenty of geo-political turmoil in the background as the market decides what to do next.  We'll get the jobs data tomorrow and that should move things early.  But we are still at the mercy and risk of the next headline and that could drive things either way.  I was thinking that we should test the lows of this week but if we rally tomorrow that probably won't happen.  I considered purchasing the SPY December calls today but didn't.  GE was off a dime and the volume was light.  oversold on the short term here.  Gold was up a buck or so as the US dollar continued to sell off.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains again on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The technical indicators on the VIX are about halfway so we don't have a clear picture there.  If we rally tomorrow I think you can say that the decline is over.  I'll err on the side of caution and stay on the sidelines for now.  However if we do rally tomorrow you can look back at this week as the opportunity to get long the December cycle.  Hasn't happened yet and it may not.  We also have to keep in mind the December 15th date as the next round of China tariffs is due.  If a deal is struck before then, expect the market to approve of that.  If not perhaps the SPY December puts will be back in vogue.  But lets get through the employment report first.  Asia was up, with Europe generally lower.  We'll check out the jobs numbers and finish the trading week tomorrow.

We got a bounce back today as the Dow rose 147 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower but another day like today could change that.  I don't think that the decline is over but I could be wrong there.  The technical indicators for the major averages are more oversold now but not completely so.  Perhaps some more selling back to yesterdays lows will set us up for something more sustainable to the upside.  We're at the constant mercy of the next tweet or headline and that is a tough way to go.  With plenty of time left in the December option cycle, I'm inclined to take it slow for now.  GE was off about a dime and the volume was lower.  Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I did place an order for the GDX January calls again but canceled it at the close.  We had a pretty bearish reversal in silver today and that is a concern for the bulls in precious metals I think.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX fell dramatically today after yesterdays ramp up.  It doesn't mean that the decline has ended but it probably means that we won't just be headed straight down.  I do think that we'll be setting up nicely for a Santa Claus rally if we continue to drift lower now into the expiration in a couple of weeks.  That's a guess as usual.  I would think that tomorrow would be a waiting game on the jobs report Friday, barring some unforeseen overnight headline.  So for now more patience on the next trade is required.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 280 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The Dow was off around 450 points early on so we came back from that.  But with the indicators pointing down and not oversold yet the path of least resistance is lower.  Perhaps we'll make it back down to the break out point of 3025.  If so, we'll take a look at the SPY calls there.  I do think that it's too late for the December puts now.  Another missed opportunity but we'll have to see how things go from here.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was good.  Already oversold here.  Gold spiked higher with the futures gaining $15.  The US dollar was lower again.  The XAU was up almost two points, while GDX gained 5/8.  Volume was heavy and we broke the declining tops line for GDX that began in September.  I will now have to consider chasing this move higher despite the overbought condition.  If we're lucky we'll get a move back to the break out point.  I also noticed higher volume in the GDX calls yesterday that resulted in expanding open interest today.  So players are getting behind this move higher.  But make no mistake, I've missed the best entry point for this attempted trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up to 18 today and finished well off of that.  It got overbought in a hurry that past couple of days.  That doesn't mean that the decline is over but it may not be one that lasts too long.  A positive headline will turn things around in a hurry.  That doesn't mean we're about to get one though.  If we continue weaker for the next couple of sessions, I may try the SPY December calls ahead of the jobs report on Friday.  But we'll have to see how the next couple of days pan out.  It has been a rough start to the month for the bulls but not entirely unexpected.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got some actual selling to begin the month of December as the Dow fell 268 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  Tariff man Trump was back at it, this time for South America.  The market did not like what it heard.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major stock averages.  It is probably too late for the SPY December puts but if we get some kind of snap back to the upside in the next couple of days there may be a chance.  Todays volume tells us that there is more room to go lower.  GE was off 1/8 on good volume.  Gold was off a few bucks while the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Overbought now for some of the gold share indices indicators.  I'd still like to get some gold share calls but cannot chase that trade here.  The Bollinger bands for gold and the gold shares are getting very tight so  big move is coming here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today looks like it is the beginning of the December decline that we were looking for.  That may set things up for the January calls though.  The VIX had a big move and is getting overbought in a hurry.  I guess I'll give it a couple of days and go from there.  We do have the employment report due out on Friday.  There is also plenty of time in the December option cycle to put on a trade.  It is a rough start to the month for the bulls though.  Plus it also reminds us that we are at the mercy of the next headline wherever it comes from.  However technically speaking the indicators have now rolled over and there is room for more decline in them.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires with overseas trading tonight.

A holiday shortened down session on the last trading day of November.  The Dow fell 112 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is back to sideways.  Negative US/China trade talk now and we are at the mercy of the headlines.  There is now a potential negative RSI divergence for the Dow on the daily chart.  It doesn't show up on the other major stock indices though.  GE was pretty much flat on very light volume.  Gold gained on the negative trade talk.  The futures rose $8.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 3/8.  Volume was good considering the holiday atmosphere.  I canceled my GDX January call trade as I have missed it.  If we happen to drift back down towards the 26 level I'll consider putting it on again.  Mentally I'm not happy missing this GDX call trade.  My order came very close a couple times to being filled.  Perhaps I need to be a bit more flexible in my pricing.  But the game goes on and there's always another trade out there.  I'll be checking the charts as usual as we begin the month of December.  There's still plenty of time in the December option cycle to make something happen.  I am no doubt leaning towards the SPY puts here as we have been overbought for weeks on end and December can sometimes have a decline to set up the Santa Claus rally.  We'll see how things go this time around.  Europe and Asia were lower to end the month.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  

The holiday rally continues as the Dow rose 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index has turned around.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that bodes well for the bulls.  We'll get a shortened session on Friday but the main players will be off for the rest of the week.  Overbought, staying that way and no overhead resistance.  Nothing has changed and we'll see what happens in December.  GE was off a few cents on about average volume.  Gold fell around $7 as we are just about at the support level of $1450.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I did adjust my order again for the GDX January calls but if support doesn't hold for gold I'll simply cancel it.  The technical indicators for the gold share indices are mid-range.  I do expect some type of rally for gold in the December to January time frame.  Exactly when that will start is the question.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A low VIX, overbought indicators and new all time highs day after day.  What could go wrong here?  I expected a decline back to the break out former resistance at 3025 for the S&P and it never happened.  In hindsight, buying calls on the break out was the proper play.  There's still plenty of time in the December option cycle for a profitable trade somewhere.  The question is will I be able to find it?  Europe and Asia were higher as money continues to find a home in equities around the world.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone. 

The beat goes on as the Dow added 55 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is back to moving sideways.  It is an overbought market that keeps grinding higher.  How long this lasts is anybody's guess but it's been going on for quite a while.  It is Thanksgiving week and that generally has a positive bias.  The volume today is a surprise but my guess is that all the serious trading for the week is now done.  Players are heading to wherever they're going for the weekend and trading should be thin Wednesday and Friday.  No real US/China trade news although the background noise here is now positive.  Of course that could change on a dime.  GE was off almost 1/4 and the volume was good.  Gold was up around $5 and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The gold shares found buyers as the XAU gained 1 7/8, while GDX added 5/8.  Volume was good.  My open order didn't get filled and it appears that I've missed this trade once again.  I did adjust my order again but I wasn't fast enough.  I'm not exactly sure if this is the time to chase things but I'll leave the order out there the rest of the week.  Once again the time was right today for the calls but I just wasn't good enough to pull it off.  My intra-day execution lacks conviction at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I did have a chance to put the GDX trade on today but failed.  But you've got to move on.  The VIX is almost down to the lowest level of this year.  Only one way to go from there I think.  Perhaps I'll focus my attention on the SPY December puts.  However it is probably best to wait until next week to put a trade on since the market will clearly be in holiday mode for the remainder of this week.  So perhaps patience is in order for now.  Europe and Asia were generally higher.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Some positive trade news over the weekend and the market responded as the Dow gained 190 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now trying to turn back up.  New all time highs for the S&P and the NASDAQ.  It looks like we'll have a positive holiday week for stocks but of course that could change with the next headline.  But I don't think that it will.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up for the major stock indices.  Perhaps we'll get a blow off top here but that's just a guess.  I'm still considering the SPY December puts at some point but not just yet.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was off $9.  The US dollar finished slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I adjusted my open order again for the GDX January calls.  Any weakness tomorrow should get this order filled but you never know.  I do think that tomorrow is the time to try this idea, if at all.  26 is the key level for GDX and we are almost there.  If that doesn't hold, then the gold shares are probably going to start to really head south.  That is a possibility here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has broken through 12 and remains oversold.  It has been oversold for quite a while and implied that the rally had legs which it has.  But my question is just how much longer do we have?  December can produce some weakness and we saw that last year.  I would not chase things higher here.  There may be a shot at the SPY December puts at some point in this option cycle.  With the extra week already in there, patience for now on that trade.  Plus we could just grind higher as well.  There is no overhead resistance.  I do not expect any type of short squeeze here though.  Gold is getting back to the support at $1450.  I expect it to hold there but that doesn't mean that it will.  I am looking to purchase the GDX January calls tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

The Dow bounced back 109 points today on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  Tit for tat trade headlines today but no real progress one way or the other.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are trying to turn back up here.  I'll be looking for a holiday grind higher next week barring an unforeseen surprise.  Perhaps if we see a higher high fro the S&P 500 with a lower RSI reading, I'll try the SPY December puts.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Mid-range on the indicators for GDX.  I'd like to see a roll over to the 26 level but the market rarely cooperates.  I may adjust down my open order for the GDX January calls over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The indicators rolled back down in the VIX and that's a plus for the bulls.  The medium term indicators remain oversold but in rallies they can stay that way for weeks.  I am expecting holiday higher prices next week for stocks.  However remaining on the sidelines isn't a bad idea with Thursday off and a Friday shortened session.  I'll do the chart work over the weekend and take it from there.  Asia was higher with the exception of China.  Europe rose too.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still moving lower as the Dow fell 55 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  Not a lot to report about todays action.  We were down from the start, made it back to slightly positive only to drift lower the final couple of hours.  No conviction to the sell off and that's a plus for the bulls.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have plenty of room to go lower but my guess is that we'll turn things around back to the upside soon.  A holiday week is coming and I'd expect some positive market action.  After that, who knows?  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was off around $8.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU shed about 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was good.  I adjusted my open order lower for the GDX January calls.  There's plenty of room on the short term indicators here to run lower as well.  Support for GDX at the 26 level and that would be the spot to try and get the open option order filled.  Haven't gotten there yet and if the level doesn't hold you won't want the calls anyway.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX hasn't shown much life here with a mild decline in stocks.  That's a plus.  However we remain at the mercy of the next trade headline either way.  I doubt we'll hear much with Thanksgiving on the horizon but I could be wrong.  To me what we are seeing now is simply a pause before we set new all time highs again.  After that, when we get into December, then it could be more interesting to the downside.  Patience is still advised for now with regards to the SPY trading.  Gold has had a lackluster levitation for the past week and a half.  $1450 is the level to watch there.  Europe and Asia continued lower last night.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

Some selling today as the Dow fell 112 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to drift lower.  US/China trade worries caused a sell off mid way through the trading session.  However the market found buyers and well off of the lows for the day.  The Fed minutes didn't reveal anything new and there wasn't much market reaction.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major stock indices.  Perhaps the long awaited decline to the break out point is about to begin.  Or this is just a slight bump in the road to higher prices.  Time will tell.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Still pretty overbought here.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're still at the mercy of the next trade headline and that's not an easy way to go.  The options trading is hard enough on its own.  I'm probably going to let next weeks holiday pass before I seriously take a look at the SPY options.  Of course I'm keeping an eye on gold and the gold shares.  I'm still leaning bullish there but would need to see a move back to the 26 level on GDX to get interested in the January calls there.  I do have the open order still out there but that can be adjusted if we start to drop on GDX.  However at the rate things are going, it's possible I won't do a trade there as well.  So it's watch and wait for now.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 102 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the green.  The summation index is still moving lower but not with any conviction.  No real drivers of price here as the market waits for the next trade or impeachment headline.  We're still way overbought any way you look at it.  I'm patiently waiting for the next SPY trade.  Perhaps waiting until after the holiday week is the way to go here.  GE was up a few cents on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar ended flat for the session.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  The technical indicators for GDX are mid-range.  The XAU is overbought but not completely.  I am leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there but will adjust it if we turn around in gold.  The recent move higher has been lackluster and muted.  Plus it hasn't really gone up much compared to the previous selling.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Bollinger bands on the VIX are converging which usually precedes a big move.  If the VIX rises and volatility picks up we should see stocks fall.  In theory at least.  I'm still not ruling out a return to the break out point of 3025 in the S&P 500.  That would be the spot to try the SPY calls if it actually happens.  Sure you could try the SPY puts soon but trying to pick the top in an extremely overbought market is tough.  There have been plenty of signals and none of them have worked.  There's one ready right now as well.  But the declines have been shallow and just a stop along the way to higher prices.  Europe and Asia were mixed once again.  We'll see if the Fed minutes tomorrow get things going.