Wednesday, December 18, 2019
More running in place today as the Dow fell 26 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. No news to speak of beyond the impeachment drama. But this is already baked into the market in my humble opinion. Everybody knows that it isn't going to lead to the dismissal of the president. That's the consensus at least for now. Still short term overbought for the major averages as we get through options expiration week. I'm basically waiting to buy the SPY puts in the next couple of weeks. GE was off 1/8 and the volume picked up a little. Gold was little changed again and the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU was up a point, while GDX gained about 1/3. Volume was light. The technical indicators for GDX are now mid-range. As much as I'd like to try the calls here, I really am trying to wait until things get solidly oversold. That hasn't happened in quite a few weeks as the gold shares continue to languish in a trading range. The seasonal pattern is for a rise now into January. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Very overbought on some of the indicators that I have for the S&P. That doesn't mean a collapse is around the corner but the upside in the near term could be tough sledding. The VIX remains oversold as well. Once again I'm trying to be patient here as the holiday week coming up should be pretty uninspiring. At least I have a couple of ideas in the works if things pan out according to plan. I don't want to miss out on the gold shares but I must say that the fundamental picture there is lacking. Still, gains into the new year cannot be ruled out. I suppose I'll let this week pass and go from there. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll see if the market has any response to the impending impeachment in tomorrows session.
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