Tuesday, December 17, 2019
A day of hanging around for the most part as the Dow gained 29 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. We're still short term overbought for the major stock averages. I have decided that my next SPY trade will be the January or February puts. One of the indicators that I follow is about to give a very reliable sell signal. I am waiting for that to happen. This indicator doesn't give a signal that often but it is very reliable. Once the signal is triggered the market could fall immediately or take a short time for a top to form. Either way if I attempt this idea and it doesn't work right away, I'll simply try it again. So I'm being patient for now and watching how high we go before the indicator gives the signal. GE was off a few cents and the volume was lighter. Gold finished little changed again and the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. I'm waiting for the gold shares to get oversold before trying the calls here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is oversold and starting to move sideways. I'm guessing that it will remain in this condition for the rest of the month. As I've already said, after this week the market will be in full holiday mode. Especially with Christmas falling right in the middle of the week. Most offices will have limited staff on hand until the new year. Most trading business for 2019 will occur this week. This will also be highlighted by the option expiration on Friday. So for me it's a matter of being patient and waiting for the anticipated sell signal on the S&P 500. That is the game plan for now. Europe was mixed, with Asia higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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