Monday, December 23, 2019
The Dow tacked on another 96 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. The overall market didn't gain as much as the Dow. overbought and overdue for some kind of pause in the rally. I'm still interested in the SPY January puts as soon as I see a negative divergence in the SPY daily RSI. The Santa Claus rally time period begins tomorrow. Markets close early as well and don't reopen until Thursday. It is holiday mode all week. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Gold rose $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU climbed 3 3/4, while GDX gained over 3/4. Volume was heavy. I noticed over the weekend that silver had just broken its declining tops line that began in early September. Last night I noticed that gold was starting to move up and any gain today would break through its declining tops line as well. I placed an open order for some GDX January calls and it somehow got filled early this morning. It is showing a profit. I am wary of this trade though because some of the individual gold stocks are extremely overbought. The trade could work though if GDX can finally get past the 28 level. The favorable seasonal factor could work in the trades favor as well. But we all know markets go where they want and there is plenty of time left in the January option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX remains low and continues to be oversold. The S&P 500 remains overbought both short and medium term. The consensus now is fairly bullish and that's another reason that I'm looking at the SPY January puts here. I may have to wait for the beginning of next year though before a signal is furnished. Plus the idea could just be wrong as markets have a tendency to move higher than anyone thinks during sustained rallies like the one that we're in right now. So we'll see what happens. Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher overnight. Light volume shortened session due tomorrow.
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