Wednesday, December 04, 2019
We got a bounce back today as the Dow rose 147 points on good volume. the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading lower but another day like today could change that. I don't think that the decline is over but I could be wrong there. The technical indicators for the major averages are more oversold now but not completely so. Perhaps some more selling back to yesterdays lows will set us up for something more sustainable to the upside. We're at the constant mercy of the next tweet or headline and that is a tough way to go. With plenty of time left in the December option cycle, I'm inclined to take it slow for now. GE was off about a dime and the volume was lower. Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. I did place an order for the GDX January calls again but canceled it at the close. We had a pretty bearish reversal in silver today and that is a concern for the bulls in precious metals I think. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell dramatically today after yesterdays ramp up. It doesn't mean that the decline has ended but it probably means that we won't just be headed straight down. I do think that we'll be setting up nicely for a Santa Claus rally if we continue to drift lower now into the expiration in a couple of weeks. That's a guess as usual. I would think that tomorrow would be a waiting game on the jobs report Friday, barring some unforeseen overnight headline. So for now more patience on the next trade is required. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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