Monday, December 30, 2019
A downer Monday as the Dow fell 183 points on light volume. the advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to go sideways. Long overdue for some downside and we finally got some today. My fear here is that I may have missed the chance for the SPY January outs if we simply continue to head lower. We are still short term overbought on the major indices with plenty of room to drop on the indicators. I won't chase things here because I am looking for a positive money flow start to the new year on Thursday. However if that doesn't materialize, the down move will have been missed. GE was off a dime on OK volume for the still holiday mode mood of the market. Gold played catch up on the futures as it is now comfortably above the $1500 level. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU was up two points, while GDX rose 5/8. Volume was light. Still pretty overbought for the gold shares but in rallies it stays that way. My GDX January calls remain with a nice profit. I'm not sure how long I'll hold on to this trade but I do have an objective in mind. I usually sell to early when things get going so I'll hope I don't hold on too long this time around. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has already taken off which leads me to believe that I may have missed the short side boat here. The signal that I got has proven to be correct so far. If it is valid we've got a lot lower to go. It seems to be the case at the moment. The VIX did stop at its 200 day moving average. Perhaps that will hold things here. If we can get a small rally from here in stocks perhaps we'll get the negative RSI divergence that I'm looking for. Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is out there. We'll know what's going on as the week progresses. End of the year tomorrow and I would expect a light volume session with perhaps some more selling. Just a guess as usual. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll say goodbye to 2019 tomorrow.
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