Monday, November 25, 2019
Some positive trade news over the weekend and the market responded as the Dow gained 190 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now trying to turn back up. New all time highs for the S&P and the NASDAQ. It looks like we'll have a positive holiday week for stocks but of course that could change with the next headline. But I don't think that it will. The short term technical indicators have turned back up for the major stock indices. Perhaps we'll get a blow off top here but that's just a guess. I'm still considering the SPY December puts at some point but not just yet. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold was off $9. The US dollar finished slightly higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. I adjusted my open order again for the GDX January calls. Any weakness tomorrow should get this order filled but you never know. I do think that tomorrow is the time to try this idea, if at all. 26 is the key level for GDX and we are almost there. If that doesn't hold, then the gold shares are probably going to start to really head south. That is a possibility here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has broken through 12 and remains oversold. It has been oversold for quite a while and implied that the rally had legs which it has. But my question is just how much longer do we have? December can produce some weakness and we saw that last year. I would not chase things higher here. There may be a shot at the SPY December puts at some point in this option cycle. With the extra week already in there, patience for now on that trade. Plus we could just grind higher as well. There is no overhead resistance. I do not expect any type of short squeeze here though. Gold is getting back to the support at $1450. I expect it to hold there but that doesn't mean that it will. I am looking to purchase the GDX January calls tomorrow. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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