Friday, November 15, 2019
A positive headline on the US/China trade front and the Dow soared 222 points. The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average despite option expiration. The summation index is back to a sideways trend. We are now getting overbought to the extreme on most of the major stock averages. How long will this go on? Usually longer than you can stay solvent according to the old saying. Retail sales came in where expected. Next week doesn't have a lot of economic data due out. The Fed beige book is about the only potential market mover that I see. Of course we're simply at the mercy of what comes out of the US and China at this point. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. Gold was off around $4 on the futures and came up from the lows of the session. The US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX remains low as the market hits new all time highs. The market action of the past couple of weeks was a consolidation and not a top. There's no overhead resistance and I'm not sure just how long this can go on. The extra week in the December option cycle along with a holiday week thrown in there makes trading the SPY here probably something that should be put on hold. I'd still love to see a retracement to the break out point but that doesn't appear likely now. I guess we'll just enjoy the rise up and see how high we can go. If a trade deal is ever signed, to me that would be the top and time to purchase some puts. But we still have no idea if and when that will occur. We'll see what happens over the weekend and go from there. I'll be checking the charts as usual. Europe and Asia rallied to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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