Wednesday, November 06, 2019
A day of hanging around as the Dow was flat on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative again. The summation index is beginning to turn sideways. The NASDAQ was lower today. Nothing has really changed with the technical indicators. I view what is going on as a pause before we move up to new highs again. Things will roll over eventually. GE was up a few cents and the volume was OK. Gold bounced back $8 today. The US dollar finished relatively unchanged. The XAU and GDX had positive fractional gains on light volume. GOLD reported earnings and had a mild gain for the day. Still waiting on the big move for gold and the gold shares. I'm leaving my order in for the GDX January calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX remains low and there's nothing to suggest an imminent return to volatility. Of course that could change with the next US/China trade headline but even that hasn't had any real effect lately. The market expects some kind of deal to get signed in the near future. Unless there's a complete breakdown in talks, that is the expected outcome. Even if the deal doesn't mean much. Seven days to go in the November option cycle. My guess is that the market will at least hold up until expiration. You cannot underestimate the no overhead resistance scenario. There's nothing in the way to higher prices in the near term and probably longer. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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