Getting an expected bounce as the Dow gained 113 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  I certainly don't think that this is the start of some kind of extended rally.  Volume is light and the breadth is weak.  I was stopped out of my SPY September put trade for about a 40% loss.  I'm now debating on where to get back in.  I may give things another day or so but I do think that we are going to head lower.  I might go out to the SPY October puts but they are rather pricey.  The short term technical indicators on the major averages are trying to turn back up.  I'm not exactly sure if attempting the September puts again is the right choice.  GE lost 18 cents on light volume.  Gold was little changed as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX finished the day little changed as well.  I am looking at the GDX January calls.  The gold shares are blown out to the downside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite another trading loss.  I simply stayed in that trade too long.  The market indicators are in the area that has held things up for the past few months.  Perhaps things will be steady through expiration before another downside move takes place.  That is simply a guess.  It's also possible that we just head back down from here because the volume says there is really no interest in stocks right now.  So perhaps the best course of action is inaction.  We'll see how the market reacts to the upcoming economic data and go from there.  We've got the beige book tomorrow as well.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.    

The Dow closed lower today s it fell 59 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The overall market was higher from the get go, with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher.  The TRAN had a very strong day and hit a new high.  The small stocks were up but it wasn't a move that inspires confidence.  I think we'll move higher tomorrow but after that I'm not so sure.  We are still more oversold than overbought on the short term technical indicators.  My SPY September puts are now showing a loss and will probably be stopped out tomorrow at this rate.  I'm considering going out to the SPY October puts as the next trade.  There wan no chance today to exit the current trade at a profit since we had a gap higher open.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold finished barely changed and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/4 on average volume.  The gold shares have been decimated.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed back below its 200 day moving average and the technical indicators rolled back down.  This implies some more upside to come.  Today the McClellan oscillator bounced off of a pretty negative reading as it should have.  But I am noticing the volume lately has been very weak, a sign that players are not in a hurry to establish positions.  But the minor decline that we've seen here says that full scale selling hasn't occurred yet either.  Nine days left in the September option cycle.  We'll get inflation data, retail sales and the beige book out this week.  So there will be things to trade off of.  Right now I'm a believer that whatever bounce we see early this week won't hold up.  It is just a matter of if I get stopped out of the current trade or not.  We'll see how it goes.  Asia continues lower but Europe rose in last nights trading.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Another interesting session today as the Dow fell 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  the summation index is moving lower.  Once again the market opened much lower only to find its way higher for the rest of the session.  the jobs numbers were better than expected but the tariff headlines continues to dominate the ongoing market theme.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P along with the small stocks have rolled over.  We aren't completely oversold yet and the decline has been orderly for now.  We could completely reverse next week because some kind of upside is overdue.  My SPY September puts are showing a small gain.  I may have to dump them early next week and then try and buy them back cheaper.  The daily VIX is getting overbought but we did manage to close above the 200 day moving average for a change.  The underlying market has been weaker than the Dow lately and that is not a positive sign.  However the point decline hasn't been much for stocks and I'm not exactly sure just what that means.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold dropped a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher along with US interest rates.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on average volume.  Perhaps some safe haven buying there today because the economic data wasn't positive for the precious metal.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Most major stock indices declined this week but we haven't seen anything go over a cliff.  With the summation index heading down the trend is lower.  There's still two weeks to go in the September option cycle, so there's plenty of time for the index puts to work.  The small stock indexes are getting near their 50 day moving averages, which have held the most recent previous declines.  I'm keeping a close eye on what happens there because it will have meaning for the rest of the marketplace.  I may be wrong about an extended decline here because all attempts so far for a big drop in stocks has been met with buying.  We'll see if that holds up next week as well and it just might.  It depends on what kind of news pops up this weekend.  Regardless of that most stock index charts have short term down trends on them now.  But like I said before, there hasn't been any panic yet and buyers have showed up when needed.  Next week should be interesting as well.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight as they try to put a halt to the recent declines.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A repeat of yesterday as the Dow was higher and the overall market lower.  The Dow was up 20 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were both much lower than the Dow.  Once again we tried to sell off hard but the market hung in there all day.  Whatever bounce that I have been anticipating isn't showing up.  Perhaps we're seeing a change in the tone of the market.  But buyers are coming in when we drop and we finish off of the lows for the session each time.  We'll see what we get with the employment report tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major averages but not the Dow.  My SPY September puts are now showing a small profit.  GE was off a nickel on light volume.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves lower on better than average volume.  The gold shares are blown out to the downside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks are heading lower here and that is not a positive.  We are at near term support for the small issues along with getting close to the 50 day moving average.  So perhaps things can hold up here for stocks.  The 200 day moving average is proving to be resistance for the VIX and it closed right there.  So perhaps tomorrow will be a pivotal day for stocks.  One of my indicators is pretty oversold, so a bounce would not be out of the question.  But the underlying tone of selling from the broader market could mean that maybe we will finally be getting a substantial decline.  Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is there.  RUT looks like it is rolling over as well and it usually is a leader for the market.  Of course things could all change tomorrow or with the next headline as well.  We'll see how the market reacts to the jobs numbers and go from there.  Europe and Asia were down again as the emerging market sell off shows no signs of letting up yet.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

A mixed bag today as the Dow was up with the broader market down.  The most watched index gained 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is now moving lower but not with any conviction yet.  Once again the signal from the McClellan oscillator did not materialize.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 showed relative weakness.  This is a change from what we saw in August when it was just the opposite.  I still think we're going to see some rally soon but I could be wrong.  I'm also still holding on to my SPY September puts and they are still showing a slight loss despite the recent downside that we've seen.  GE was off 1/8 and volume picked up a bit.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  There is a potential positive divergence on he daily RSI for the gold shares here.  Potential being the key word there.  We are overblown to the downside here but we also stayed oversold here for weeks.  I'm not inclined to attempt a trade here at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock market has tried to sell off for about three days in a row here to no avail.  I'm not sure exactly what to expect tomorrow but I would think we would tread lightly ahead of Fridays jobs report.  There have been rumblings from the emerging markets overseas having some kind of trouble again.  But the early selling in the US has always been met with buyers during the session so far.  As long as that continues we really won't see any significant downside for US equities.  The VIX has had opportunities to expand but has kept below its 200 day moving average.  The potential for a drop still probably exists but until it actually happens it may just be wishful thinking on my part because I own the index puts.  However the overall market weakness vs. the Dow gives that trade a chance for now.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Slightly lower on the Dow today as it shed 12 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow for a change.  We did get a signal on the McClellan oscillator last Friday for a big move in the next two sessions.  We'll see if it shows up tomorrow.  Still short term overbought on the major stock indices and it still has a feel of a market that wants to go higher.  It did try to sell off early today as we were down over 100 points but buyers steeped up and we came all the way back.  My SPY September puts are still showing a loss.  One day of rally might them stopped out.  GE lost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold fell eight bucks on the futures as the US dollar rose.  Interest rates went up as well.  The XAU lost 2 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  We've reached fresh lows for the gold share indices.  If ever there was seasonal pattern that didn't show up, this year for gold and the gold shares is an example.  As much as I'd like to attempt the longer term calls here again, I'm going to simply stay away from trading there for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX climbed today but then came all the way back.  That says to me that there's a chance for things to get back going to the upside soon.  Like I said, we had a chance to sell off today but made it all the way back.  We're still at the mercy of headline risk but all selling has been met with buyers for the past few weeks.  We do have some tech companies being grilled by Congress tomorrow.  However I think the main event will be the employment report on Friday.  So we'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes in the evening trading tonight. 

Drifting around and getting nowhere today as the Dow fell 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is beginning to move sideways.  The small stocks remain strong and it appears that higher prices are in the wings.  We're still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  My SPY September puts are in the red.  I do think that I'll be stopped out on Tuesday morning barring some negative headline over the long holiday weekend.  Volume should picks up next week with everyone back at their desks.  If it doesn't, then I'd start to worry about the duration of this breakout.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was flat while the US dollar rose.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Gold and the gold shares remain unloved.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was quite a positive month in August for stocks as we roll into September.  We've broken out on the S&P 500 and there is no overhead resistance.  The market is overbought but during rallies it simply stays that way.  That's what we've seen here lately.  I've tried the SPY puts again but my entry timing was off and this trade doesn't look like it will pan out either.  We'll see what comes out of the weekend but I don't expect much.  There will be economic data to trade off of next week including the jobs report on Friday.  Right now the market has the look and feel of something that wants to go higher.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were lower to close out the month overseas.  It's a long holiday weekend here in the US and the unofficial end of summer.  I'll check the charts over the weekend but it appears for now that we're in rally mode until proven otherwise.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower on trade concerns today as the Dow fell 137 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading up.  More tariff noise out of the white house today and that sent stocks lower.  The small stocks held up rather well though, so that tells me that this decline shouldn't last long.  The VIX spiked higher but it probably won't last.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are still overbought.  My SPY September puts are still showing a loss.  The timing there on the entry was off by a couple of days.  GE lost 20 cents on light volume.  Gold dropped five bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One more trading day for the month of August and it's the last day of summer vacation for players as well.  We should be back at full strength on Tuesday as Monday is the Labor day holiday.  The market is still in rally mode but I would suggest that it needs a rest.  We're back at the mercy of headline risk.  Today was simply another quiet summer day until something came out of Washington about the tariffs again.  The market has been able to ignore this kind of news all summer.  I would not expect that to change.  Overbought, staying that way and I don't see any substantial decline coming until the technical indicators roll over.  The small stocks continue to act well and that is a positive.  When we see RUT and the NASDAQ start to drop, then we'll get an actual decline.  Until then the trend is up.  We did get a light volume breakout to new all time highs.  We'll see if it holds going forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll finish up the month of August tomorrow.     

It is simply up, up and away for stocks as the Dow gained 60 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  There is no overhead resistance.  The small stocks are leading the way.  It is about as bullish as it gets.  I'm about to be stopped out of my SPY September puts.  Technically short term overbought and staying that way.  The VIX remains in the 12's.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar were slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The gold shares continue to disappoint.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There are no sellers.  We've broken out to the upside in the S&P 500 and despite the light volume we continue to advance.  My original theory of a five wave pattern being completed here was wrong.  Hence the many losses that I've taken on the way back up.  It's basically back to the drawing board now for me.  Most likely when I'm stopped out of the current trade I'll be heading for the sidelines for a while to regroup.  There's been too many losses without a winning trade for months.  It's time to step back and reassess what's going on here.  Of the major stock averages only the Dow and the NYA haven't hit new all time highs.  That should occur for both in the coming weeks.  The usual negative seasonal factor for the stock market is not showing up.  Kind of like the bullish seasonal for gold that didn't materialize.  However you've got to keep moving on in the game.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the nighttime developments.

It was a quiet day of just hanging around as the Dow rose 14 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues to move higher.  We had a gap up open but then traded sideways for the rest of the session.  No market moving news to speak of and the market has returned to summer mode.  The volume is light, all the players aren't at their desks and we'll see what happens when we get past Labor day.  My SPY September puts are showing a slight loss.  The stop loss order is in.  GE lost a penny on average volume.  Gold fell eight bucks.  The US dollar closed little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We remain short term overbought on the major stock indices and at record highs for some.  There is no overhead resistance.  Perhaps attempting the SPY puts here isn't the right strategy but we will not remain overbought forever.  Also even though it is summer, the light volume breakout here may not be sustainable.  That's just a guess.  The overbought condition is not.  I'm hoping that the trade I've taken doesn't get stopped out this week and then we'll see what happens in September.  Europe and Asia were mixed to lower.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Powering higher to begin the week as a supposed trade deal with Mexico spurred buying interest.  The Dow soared 259 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  There is no overhead resistance and sellers have disappeared for now.  The usual seasonal weakness is not here.  I dumped the SPY September puts that I bought on Friday for a 33% loss.  Even though there is plenty of time for this trade I decided to sell out of that and repurchase the puts at a higher strike price which I did.  That trade is showing a slight loss and this trade I will hold on to for a while unless we simply get a parabolic rise from here.  That is a possibility despite that fact that we're overbought and staying that way.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  It look like a bottom has been put in here.  Gold rose a few bucks as the US dollar is dropping.  The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  This look like an oversold bounce as the gold shares got crushed in the preceding weeks.  I did sell the GDX September calls that I held but it was mostly symbolic.  The loss here was 99.9%.  I basically just got this trade on the books to register the loss and move on.  The mistake of not putting on a stop loss was evident here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is acting like it wants to take off to the moon here so we'll have to see how the month finishes out.  Perhaps trying the puts again is the wrong strategy but some of the technical indicators are saying that we've reached at least a short term top.  Not a lot of economic data out this week and it is still summer vacation for most.  So I think I'll hold on to this position and let this week pass from here.  We'll see if we get the expected follow through upside tomorrow.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on any overnight developments.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 133 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We finally closed at a new record high for the S&P 500.  It looks like there will be even higher prices coming up as well.  The VIX is at 12 and the RUT set another record today as well.  My open order for the SPY September puts was filled.  I may be a bit early on this trade.  It is showing a slight loss.  We are short term overbought on the major stock indices but in up trends it stays that way.  The volume has also been pretty light but it is the last couple of weeks of summer.  That said there is plenty of time for this trade to pan out at a profit since there's an extra week in the September option cycle.  GE was off a few cents and the volume's light.  Gold came to life today as politicians are trying to talk down the dollar.  The precious metal futures rose almost twenty bucks with the dollar heading lower.  The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX was up 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  It still didn't help my GDX September calls.  They're still dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Stocks continue to move higher and it looks like clear sailing from here in the short term.  Supposed bad news is being shrugged off and any selling is met with buying.  Could it be that the usual seasonal weakness for stocks won't show up this year as the usual seasonal strength for gold didn't happen?  It certainly appears that way at the moment.  I'll put in my stop loss order for this SPY September put trade and go from there.  I'd expect next week to be a light volume affair like this week as it's the last hurrah of summer.  Not much else to do now except check the charts over the weekend and wait for the open on Monday.  Unless we get some headline out of the blue, expect higher prices next week.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher to close out the trading week overseas.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving lower on the Dow as it fell 76 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  Not much direction here for the market as the volume is so light it's hard to read anything into what is going on.  The overall market is holding up better than the Dow but the short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major stock indices.  I'm leaving in my open order for the SPY September puts.  The VIX is in the 12's and the players are out on vacation.  With the extra week on the September option cycle, there really isn't a rush to put any kind of trade on.  GE gained a few cents and the volume's light.  Gold fell $11 on the futures as the US dollar moved up.  The XAU dropped 2 1/8 while GDX shed almost 1/3.  It appears that there is no hope for gold and the gold shares.  The usual positive seasonality is not showing up this year.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks are holding up better here but without any volume it's hard to say what is exactly going on.  The market appeared to be heading to new all time highs this week but now looks to be getting tired.  The fact the RUT broke to new all time highs is bullish.  Perhaps we'll trend sideways for a while before attempting new all time highs for the S&P 500 again.  That's just a guess as usual.  It's still a watch and wait period for now.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what the Fed head has to say tomorrow and close out the summer trading week.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 88 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  The Dow was weaker than the overall market, with the NASDAQ in positive territory.  Headline risk has returned but the market just shrugged it off today.  This is a market that seems to want to go higher.  We're still short term overbought on the major indices but that doesn't matter in rallies.  RUT was higher today and the VIX turned back down.  I'm expecting more upside in the next couple of days.  GE lost over 1/8 but the volume was lighter than yesterday.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar dropped slightly today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains again on very light volume.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Friends of Trump were being convicted yesterday after the bell and the futures had a good drop.  But the market came all the way back today before drifting lower into the close.  The market is ignoring much of the bad news that is appearing lately.  That is usually the case when things want to get going higher.  The only trouble I see here is that its the last couple of weeks in August and a lot of the players aren't at their desks.  That said, I still have my open order out there for the SPY September puts.  The Fed minutes were a non-event today.  There isn't much else on the economic agenda this week.  Chairman Powell will speak on Friday.  We'll simply keep watching and waiting for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher overnight.  On to Thursday.

Higher today but we did finish well off of the best levels from the session.  The Dow added 63 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The S&P 500 got oh so close to setting a new all time high but backed off.  RUT did manage to make it past 1700 and on to a new high.  The TRAN set a new all time high as well at the close.  That bodes well for the advance in the overall market to continue.  The VIX turned around today though and that will be something to keep an eye on.  I adjusted my open order for the SPY September puts up another strike price.  It is also possible that today was the price top and we simply head lower from here but I also think that we'll try to hit new highs in the S&P again in the September option cycle.  I could be wrong.  GE came to life and gained 1/3 on OK volume.  Gold was higher and made it back to $1200 on the futures as the US dollar continues to drop.  The XAU and GDX again had slight fractional gains, this time on light volume.  Gold has had a nice bounce but the gold shares are not following.  That isn't a positive sign.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting price action today as we had a good rally going but it stalled at resistance.  There's plenty of time left in the September option cycle so there is no rush to do anything.  That said, we are overbought on a short term basis for most of the major averages.  The Dow and the NYA have the most ground to make up to reach new all time highs as the other major averages are pretty close.  As I've already stated the RUT made it there today.  The price action that we've seen in stocks after last weeks Turkey currency scare has been positive.  I do think that we'll make new all time highs in the S&P 500 quite soon.  It's where we go after that giving me pause as the week moves forward.  I'm still expecting a bearish conclusion to events after we set a new high.  That's my guess for now.  Europe and Asia were higher again as it appears that there's a worldwide push back into stocks.  We'll see what the Fed minutes have to say tomorrow and how the market reacts to that. 

A drift higher today as the Dow rose 89 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow.  It still looks like we'll see new all time highs in the S&P 500 soon.  RUT looks ready to crack the 1700 level as well.  The VIX is around 12 1/2.  I did adjust my open order for the SPY September puts to a higher strike price.  There isn't a lot of economic data due out this week but we will get the Fed minutes on Wednesday.  Chairman Powell also will give a speech on Friday.  Other than that I don't see any headline risk out there like we saw last week.. Of course that could change in a tweet.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  Gold gained a dozen as the US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a summer Monday today as we roll into an extended week option cycle.  Perhaps traders will take the next couple of weeks a little slower than we've seen so far this summer.  I'm still looking for weakness going into September but that could change if we see a high volume breakout to new all time highs.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are getting overbought though.  I'll leave in my open order for the SPY puts for now and continue to monitor the situation.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We got some upside follow through to yesterdays gains as the Dow added 110 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should the summation index back up.  The rally is mostly in the Dow for now.  I'm keeping an eye on RUT as it hasn't broken out above 1700 with volume yet.  The S&P 500 is once again challenging new all time highs.  It may get there next week if the rally continues.  The VIX is back below its 50 day moving average.  The market made quite a comeback during a turbulent week.  It seems to be saying that we're poised to move higher.  I do still have my open order out there for the SPY September puts.  I think that if RUT breaks out to the upside I will have to cancel that trade.  GE was unchanged on light volume.  Gold was up $6 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was pretty heavy.  Most likely short covering in my opinion because I can't see any reason why anyone would be interested in gold after the beating it has taken.  I don't know, maybe some bottom fishing but the fact remains that the seasonal strength has been nowhere to be found in gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We made it through option expiration today and we're on to the September cycle.  An extra week thrown in there for September so the premiums are high.  The market was resilient this week considering all the negative headline news.  The S&P 500 seems poised to set a new all time high at some point next week.  If it does start to break out here we'll need to see some volume to confirm the move up.  But it hasn't happened yet and headlines from the weekend could turn things around back down again.  There's plenty of questions without answers at the moment.  It's been a busy summer and I suppose that won't change here in the last two weeks of August.  I'll go over the charts as usual this weekend to try to decipher what I think is going on.  I do believe that new highs in the S&P are coming up soon.  After that, I just don't know.  Asia was generally higher and Europe slightly lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Quite a move higher today as the Dow soared 396 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The overall market was higher but not as much as the Dow.  Earnings drove things higher today but the underlying overseas issues remain.  I still have my open order for the SPY September puts out there but we'll need to see more rally for it to get filled.  Volatility has definitely increased this week as there are no summer doldrums to be found.  I am thinking that yesterday was a temporary washout to the downside and now we will once again make an attempt at new all time highs for the S&P 500.  That's my take on things at the moment.  GE was up eight cents and the volume was average.  Gold lost a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 3/8.  Volume remains good here as the gold shares have been annihilated.  Theses issues are so oversold it is as if they are going to zero.  My GDX September call trade is dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day left for option expiration week and it feels like this week has been two.  But that's the way it feels when volatility rears its head.  The bulls and bears are fighting it out here and I'm still in the camp that the bears will win out here.  Ideally things will set up to get the SPY September puts at some point next week.  I don't know why the gold shares are so weak here because the metal itself hasn't dropped as much.  Yes, we've broken through $1200 on gold but the percentage move in the gold shares versus gold is out of whack.  I'd like to see a bounce and I'm sure we'll get one but I certainly don't know when.  Asia was a bit lower but Europe scored gains overnight.  We'll close out a tumultuous week tomorrow. 

Turkey fears again today as the Dow lost 137 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Make no mistake that we're heading lower and that rallies can be shorted.  We did finish up from the worst levels of the day but there should be no doubt which way the market is headed.  The VIX jumped above 16 today before falling back to its 200 day moving average.  I guess that I can still hope for a bounce at some point but we all know hope is not a trading strategy.  It appears that I've missed the chance for the SPY September puts here.  The media has yet to jump on the downside bandwagon.  That alone tells me that there's more to come.  GE was off another 1/8 on average volume.  Gold got sold off again, the futures lost almost twenty bucks.  The US dollar had a slight gain.  The XAU fell 4 2/3, while GDX dropped 1 1/8.  Volume was extremely heavy.  It's a bloodbath for the gold shares.  These issues are so oversold that you can expect a pretty good snap back rally soon.  It won't amount to a change in trend but it may give me a chance to exit my GDX September call trade without a complete loss.  The seasonality for gold didn't show up this year, in fact it was the exact opposite.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here.  Sooner or later, down.  The gold sell off could be the result of margin calls around the world in addition to the rise in the US dollar.  I do not see the upward trend in the dollar turning around anytime soon.  The safe haven factor there along with rising rates in the US make the dollar the place to be for now.  A rising dollar is not good for US multinational companies, which would keep a lid on the stock market.  Throw in the trade tariff factor and the fundamentals right now are not bullish for stocks.  If these factors start to affect earnings, then you can see where all this is going.  Technically the short term indicators have rolled over and are not all the way oversold yet.  So I will simply have to wait to see if we get some kind of bounce to position myself in the September option period.  But as I've said, it may already be too late.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A bounce back up today as the Dow rose 112 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  A pause in the decline or are we heading back to attempt new all time highs again?  That is the question that will be answered in the coming days.  There's still problems in Turkey so don't expect that issue to just disappear.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are trying to turn around.  The VIX closed back below its 200 day moving average.  I did leave my open order for the SPY September puts out there.  RUT had a good day and I'm keeping an eye on that.  If RUT breaks to a new all time high, I'll probably take off the SPY trade.  RUT has had a two month consolidation and if it can significantly break above 1700 it would bode well for the overall market.  Hasn't happened yet but it is something to watch.  GE was off another dime on about average volume.  Gold rose a couple bucks as the US dollar continues higher.  The XAU fell 7/8, while GDX lost almost 1/4.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are completely washed out.  The oversold readings have lasted for weeks.  It is a bloodbath for these shares.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Option expiration week is upon us and I would normally expect the usual positive bias but we do have the troubles in Turkey to contend with.  The market is susceptible to headline risk at the moment even more so than usual.  I suppose what I'd really like to do is let this week pass and go from there.  There is an extra week in the September option cycle so the premiums remain high.  Even if we did make a nominal new all time high in the S&P, I think that we are going to see some seasonal downside in the September period.  Of course I also expected some seasonal upside for gold and we've seen how that worked out.  Asia was mixed overnight while Europe was little changed.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading headlines.  

Continuing lower today as the Dow fell 125 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Rallies from here can and will be sold.  It already looks like it's too late for the SPY puts.  The VIX closed above its 200 day moving average and that's another sign of what I believe is to come.  The overall market was not as low as the Dow but don't let that fool you.  I'm not sure exactly how far we'll go down but it should be a lot lower than here.  Next months puts are already pricey but I do think that they will work.  GE lost 1/3 on average volume.  It broke to new fresh lows.  Gold got pummeled despite the trouble overseas.  That is a sure sign of weakness.  The futures lost $18 and closed at $1200.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU fell 2 1/4, while GDX shed 5/8.  Volume was extremely heavy.  Perhaps this is the final blowout to the downside.  Or maybe not.  The positive seasonality for gold is nowhere to be found this year.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is still focused on the problems in Turkey.  This too will pass.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indexes have rolled over.  We are seeing selling worldwide and that is to be expected.  I don't know if we've gotten to the margin call stage yet.  But we've definitely seen the flight to safety trade with the US dollar and US treasuries.  Did not see it in gold though, just the opposite there.  I do not know what that means except that when things start to head lower, as is the case with gold right now, they usually go further than you think.  It will create opportunity but I have already taken my shot there and will now look for other trades.  I'll still try the SPY September puts if I get the chance.  Europe and Asia sold off last night.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Headline risk reared its ugly head today and the Dow fell 196 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  Trouble in Turkey as its currency is losing its value rapidly.  It is a repeat of the Greek fiasco from early last year.  The trouble in Turkey had been on the market radar recently but today was the day the market decided to react.  I don't know if this puts a cap on the stock market or if it is just a passing fad that will go away next week.  We'll have to see how it all plays out.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over o it may be too late for the SPY puts.  I am leaving my open order out there though.  GE was off over 1/8 and volume picked up a little.  Gold finished the day flat despite a huge run higher in the US dollar.  The flight to safety is on for the dollar but not for gold.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Seasonality with its usual positive bias has yet to show up for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The summer doldrums came to an abrupt halt today.  They didn't last long anyway and have been hard to find this year.  My idea of new all time highs before the expiration in a week seems to be out the window as well.  The VIX has now spiked over 13.  This tells me that the run we just had into the tens for the VIX will be short lived and is probably over.  My hope is that the market sees some kind of final rally attempt next week before we roll over for good here.  But that roll over process might have started today and the puts will remain pricey form here on out.  I can't say for sure what will happen.  The coming days will tell the story.  If we just keep moving lower it's possible that my original thesis of the high being in place from January could prove correct.  If we move back to new all time highs, then that thesis was wrong.  If we somehow do make a nominal new all time high, there still could be a double top in place on the S&P and a rollover still might happen.  Right now we'll just have to keep an eye on what happens over the weekend and see how the market reacts to events on Monday.  I do not think that the problems in Turkey are going to bring the market down with it but I could be wrong.  It may lead to bigger troubles down the road.  I'll simply keep an eye on things and hope there will be a spot for me to get those SPY September puts.  Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We drifted around for much of the session and then fell towards the close.  The Dow lost 74 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were basically even.  The overall market did not drop as much as the Dow.  The summation index continues sideways.  Today had the feel of the summer doldrums as has the week so far.  I'm still looking for some upside into the expiration next week.  We are working off the short term overbought condition of the market before we head higher is my prognosis at the moment.  The small stocks are acting better than the big caps and the VIX remains low.  I am keeping my open order out there for the SPY September puts.  However I will probably adjust it as we move forward.  The S&P 500 remains within striking distance of a new all time high.  Hasn't happened yet and it's what comes after that if it does for the key to where we're heading.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Gold dropped a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar moved higher.  The XAU and GDX closed slightly lower but well off of the highs for the day.  The dollar looks to be breaking out above its recent consolidation and that should spell more trouble for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  My GDX September call trade is a big loser.  Without a stop loss order in place after the trade was filled was the mistake made here.  I did not anticipate that the gold shares would simply remain oversold for weeks on end.  But that does not excuse the lousy trading tactics of not using the stop loss.  That is my fault alone.  but it's been that kind of trading year for me so far.  The stock market has been weaker at the end of the day for the past couple of sessions.  To me that isn't a bullish sign.  However I do think that we'll at least make another attempt at a new all time high in the S&P during the upcoming expiration week.  That would give me the opportunity to try the September puts if all goes according to plan.  The market rarely cooperates though.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

A day of hanging around for the most part as the Dow lost 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Not a lot of action in price today.  We did get a signal in the McClellan oscillator yesterday for a big move in the next two trading sessions.  We didn't get it today so we'll have to see if it shows up tomorrow.  Still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  I'm leaving in my open order for the SPY September puts.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today finally had the feel of the summer doldrums as not much happened in prices or on the news front.  I'm still thinking that things will be run higher into option expiration next week and that the S&P 500 will hit a new all time high by then.  I could be wrong and often am.  However barring some outside headline event, I do believe that will be the near term path for stocks despite the overbought condition.  We are in a seasonal weak period for stocks.  Combine that with the overbought condition and you can see the basis for trying the SPY puts.  Going out to September should give the trade enough time to work if my order does get filled.  It is also a seasonally strong period for gold and that trade has blown up in my face by having gold stay oversold for weeks on end.  so as usual there are no guarantees when it comes to seasonal trades.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights trading action. 

Still moving up as the Dow tacked on 126 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index has turned back up but not with any conviction yet.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow today.  The short term technical indicators are overbought for the S&P.  Getting closer to a new all time high there but haven't made it yet.  I did place an open order for the SPY September puts today.  We'll have to see some more upside for this to be filled.  I would like to establish this position between now and option expiration on the 17th.  GE gained a few cents and the volume is still light.  Gold was flat on the day as the US dollar traded a bit lower.  The XAU fell a point, while GDX dropped 1/4.  Volume was about average.  These indexes had one day downside reversals as they opened up but closed down.  The gold shares have been decimated and are completely oversold and staying that way.  If they are any indication about what else may happen here, the US dollar should be about to move higher past the resistance at 95.  The gold shares out perform on the upside for gold and the opposite on the downside.  That is what we are seeing now.  I don't have to tell you that my GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No summer doldrums yet for the stock market this year.  Just waiting for new highs in the S&P 500 and then we'll see what happens from there.  8 days left in the August option cycle and I do not anticipate doing a trade in the August cycle.  An extra week for the September option cycle so the premiums will be a bit pricey.  I do want to attempt the September SPY puts though.  My ideas haven't paid off yet this year and the trading has been brutal so far.  This losing GDX call trade doesn't help with the confidence factor either.  But you've just got to keep moving on in the game and that's what I intend to do.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Grinding higher today as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  It was a one day reversal to the upside for most of the stock indexes.  The small stocks are acting well here and I expect new all time highs set in some of the indices in the near term.  The VIX is below 12 and looks like it could head below 11.  I'm looking out to the SPY September puts for the next trade.  However I am thinking that perhaps things will be run higher into the expiration August 17th.  So for now I'm trying to be patient.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold dropped $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX September calls are big losers as I did not put in a stop loss order as I should have.  Not a lot of money in this trade but the percentage loss will be high.  I do not think that the seasonal rally is going to show up this year as the fundamentals are negative and I don't see any change in that.  The fact that the gold shares have been oversold and have remained that way for weeks is another factor that has negated the usual rally seen in gold at this time of the year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The beginning of August and all seems clear for stocks to move higher in the coming days.  I'll be looking for new all time highs in the S&P 500 before option expiration.  We are getting pretty close.  Getting short term overbought for the S&P but that doesn't mean we can't remain that way and pull higher.  For now I'll watch and wait.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights trading and headlines.

Moving higher as expected as the Dow gained 136 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn back up but it hasn't happened yet.  The overall market wasn't as strong as the Dow today.  The jobs report was a bit less than expected but it didn't matter.  That too was expected as the short term technical indicators were turning around.  The VIX is now below 12, which says to me there will be some more upside in the near term.  We may just hit a new all time high on the S&P 500 soon.  I'm really not a believer of this rally but you cannot argue with price.  I'll start looking at the SPY September puts but the premiums are pretty pricey.  GE didn't do much today and the volume was light.  Gold was up slightly on the futures as interest rates ticked lower.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on OK volume.  I'm still waiting for the seasonal rally here.  Could be a long wait and my GDX September call trade is already a big loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got through the data and announcements of this week pretty much unscathed.  Earnings have come in pretty good after the recent debacle in the tech sector that sent the small stocks lower.  Where do we go from here is the question that I don't have an answer for at the moment.  I'll do the work over the weekend to try and find out.  There's still a long way to go in the summer but only a couple of weeks remaining in the August option cycle.  At this point I'm inclined to wait and see if we hit a new all time high in the S&P and then short it from there.  But that's just a Friday afternoon idea in the summer.  More work will have to be done to see if that is even a viable strategy.  No summer doldrums yet.  Asia was mixed but European stocks finished higher to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

I thought that today would be quiet ahead of the jobs report but it was anything but that.  The Dow lost 7 points today but came all the way back from being 200 points lower early on.  Other indices had one day upside reversals.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average.  We opened as if the market was about to fall off a cliff.  But buyers quickly stepped in to bring stocks all the way back and then some.  The small stocks led the way and that is bullish.  The VIX once again held its 200 day moving average.  The market had a feel yesterday of wanting to move higher as the short term technical indicators started to turn up.  We'll see if there is ant follow through tomorrow.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost $10 as the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional downside moves on average volume.  The technical indicators for the gold shares are completely blown out to the downside and have remained oversold for a few weeks.  There is no seasonal strength as I had anticipated and my GDX September calls are so far gone in the red that they will not be coming back.  Barring a complete reversal in gold, this trade will be a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  After todays price action I can only expect higher stock prices tomorrow.  It may not matter what the employment report says.  I also get the feeling now that we could be about to explode to the upside as the shorts will have to cover if we get going higher.  That's just a guess on my part.  The technicals have turned up for the major stock indices.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were lower, with China leading the way down.  We'll see how the weeks closes out tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 81 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is back to trending lower.  The NASDAQ was higher as the overall market fared better than the Dow.  The Fed had no surprises and the market really didn't do much after that.  We are oversold on the small cap indices and it looks like the indicators want to turn around to the upside on the big caps.  I canceled my open order for the SPY August puts.  I may revisit this idea going forward but for now I'm going to let the employment report pass and go from there.  I do still favor the downside here but think that we'll see some kind of blip higher first.  I could be wrong.  GE lost all it gained yesterday on light volume.  Perhaps my idea of a double bottom is wrong here but it sure looks like that to me.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The fundamentals for gold remain bearish and the positive seasonal effect hasn't showed up.  The XAU lost 1 3/8, while GDX had a fractional loss.  Volume was average.  My GDX September calls are solidly in the red and this trade looks like it will be a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The jobs report on Friday will be the next market mover.  I'm guessing tomorrow will be a wait and see affair.  The VIX ticked up a bit today and the Bollinger bands are starting to tighten on the daily chart there.  So we should see something rather big in the market pretty soon.  The surprise to me would be if it was to the upside.  We'll see.  The gold shares are oversold and staying there.  That certainly isn't bullish.  At this point about all I can do is wait for a bounce to cut the loss.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We ended the month on a positive note as the Dow gained 108 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  Price action today came off of the highs set earlier in the session.  We'll get the Fed tomorrow but it should be a non-event.  I'm leaving my open order for the SPY August puts out there.  Another day like today and it might get filled.  If I do this trade I would like to be in it before Fridays jobs report.  GE was up 1/2 on good volume.  It looks like there could be a longer term double bottom in place here.  By longer term I mean that it has taken six months to form.  Gold was up a couple bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher as well.  The XAU was slightly higher and GDX was basically unchanged.  No love for the gold shares remains the theme here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  Just another day in the summer for the market.  We had some snap back in the oversold small stocks to end the month.  Will we see some beginning of the month money flows tomorrow?  Has this short term decline run its course already?  Always plenty of questions in the game with the answers to come shortly.  The VIX rolled back down today and did not breach the 200 day moving average to the upside.  That can be viewed as a positive for the bulls.  I'm still in the camp that a bigger decline is coming here for stocks.  However if the RUT goes up from here and makes a new all time high, I'll change my view.  Hasn't happened yet.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what the Fed has to say about things tomorrow.       

Heading lower today as the Dow fell 144 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving down.  It's no secret that we're heading lower.  Rallies can be sold in my humble opinion.  I do have an open order for the SPY August puts out there.  Whether or not it gets filled will depend on if we get some kind of snap back rally or not.  It may just be too late and we simply decline from here.  End of the month tomorrow, the Fed on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.  So there will be plenty for the market to chew on going forward this week.  The VIX has popped up to its 200 day moving average.  The small stocks have rolled over.  GE was up a dime on light volume.  Gold fell a couple bucks and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on very light volume.  My GDX September call position is solidly in the red.  Will the seasonality ever kick in?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There is no doubt that the tone of the market has changed to favor the bears.  We are in the seasonal weal period for stocks.  All they need to head lower is an excuse.  I can only hope for some kind of rally this week in an attempt to establish a short position.  I do not want to chase things here but I'm pretty sure that sellers will have the upper hand for a while.  I am a believer in the bearish candlestick pattern on the daily S&P 500 chart.  So for now I'll just wait and see if my open order gets filled in the near term.  The gold trade is out to September so I'll give it a little more time.  Europe and Asia were lower in last nights trade.  We'll close out the month of July tomorrow. 

GDP came in pretty good as expected but the Dow lost 76 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ getting smashed.  The short term technical indicators are now rolling over.  I do believe that it's time to look at the index puts on any bounce from here.  RUT got clobbered today as well and closed below its 50 day moving average.  I think what we have here is a case of this is as good as it gets.  What will drive the market higher from here?  Earnings have been hit or miss, with some stocks being taken out to the wood shed.  We are in a seasonally weak period for stocks as well.  No summer doldrums today as the VIX surged up to its 200 day moving average.  I'll be taking a long look at the SPY August puts next week.  GE was off almost a dime on light volume.  GE has lost its leadership role for the market and I may simply stop reporting it.  Gold lost a few bucks as both the US dollar and US interest rates had a small decline despite the robust GDP report.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX September calls remain solidly in the red.  The seasonally strength that I was looking for hasn't showed up yet.  This trade may very well end up being another loser at this rate.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 now has a bearish topping pattern on it after todays price action.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over as well.  I will of course look things over again this weekend but the evidence suggests that index puts will be the way to go from here.  Although I was looking for new all time highs after the price action early this week, the market has changed.  I will try and change with it.  The signs are out there that a decline is in the works and has already started for the small caps.  So I will be keeping a close eye on things as we start next week, hoping for an entry point for the puts.  If we simply keep falling from here then it will be too late for me.  We've got the end of the month next week followed by the employment report on Friday.  There's also a Fed meeting in the middle of the week but that should be a non event.  No change in rates is expected.  Asia was mixed again last night with Europe higher.  I'll be going over the charts again this weekend but I'm pretty sure that we'll be heading lower from here.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  

Another mixed bag today as the Dow gained 112 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with losses in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.  The summation index is still trending lower.  Facebook stock got slammed today and that led to the overall market weakness.  We'll get the first look at the 2nd quarter GDP tomorrow and I expect some movement off of that.  Which way is the question.  The short term technical indicators are still overbought for the S&P.  This condition won't last forever but trying to predict the rollover is impossible.  GE was little changed again on average volume.  Gold fell $9 on the futures as the US dollar had a good day.  The XAU dropped 2 1/3, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was good.  Once again the gold shares have acted worse than the metal itself.  This is bearish as the gold shares simply remain oversold.  Tomorrows GDP report could be the clincher for a downside break down completely.  Mt GDX September calls are solidly in the red and it may be time to simply take the loss here.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  RUT turned back up today and that may be a good sign for the overall market.  But we didn't really get any good follow through to the upside from yesterdays gains with the exception of the Dow.  Yesterday it looked like we were on our way to new all time highs for the S&P.  After today it doesn't look like that so much.  Tomorrow could get interesting.  We'll be keeping an eye on things for sure.  There's still a possibility of a positive RSI divergence on the daily gold chart.  But it will have to get moving to the upside soon or that divergence won't mean anything.  The action in the gold shares kind of says that it won't.  Europe rallied and Asia was mixed in last nights trading.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

The Dow continued its climb and gained 172 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  All signs now are pointing to higher prices despite being overbought on the technical indicators.  The volume even though being average has picked up to the upside from the weak levels seen before.  The RUT isn't leading here but the NASDAQ set a new all time high today.  Earnings are coming in strong and the market certainly likes that.  The S&P 500 is within shouting distance of setting a new all time high.  That would negate my theory that the top was seen in January for the S&P.  It would also set aside my idea that we completed a five wave up pattern from the lows of 2009.  Basically all my ideas and trades since the beginning of the year would be wrong.  That kind of makes sense because I've had loser after loser trading the SPY.  We'll have to see if the S&P sets a new high.  GE was flat on light volume.  Gold rose $7 as the US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU and GDX had small fractional gains on average volume.  My GDX September calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN bounced back strongly today and now has a bullish daily candlestick implying more gains to come.  Although the Dow is far from its all time high, the S&P is almost there.  The NYA remains pretty far from its all time high as well.  But the small stocks continue to act well.  That bodes well for the overall market.  It does appear that the S&P 500 will make it to new highs in the coming sessions.  Whether or not to get some SPY puts when it does is the question that I'm considering at the moment.  Perhaps going out to September would be the right idea here.  Or maybe the market just gets going higher and doesn't look back like it did in January.  Never any easy trades in this game.  The VIX remains low and that's a plus for higher prices as well.  So we'll see.  Asia was up and Europe down overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Kind of a mixed bag today but the Dow had a nice gain of 197 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has started to trend lower.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the red.  The TRAN and the RUT were negative as well.  I'm still considering the SPY August puts at some point but would like to see some more upside towards 2850 on the S&P first.  Earnings are coming in good but we are not seeing a broad rally.  The big cap stock indices remain short term overbought.  The indicators for RUT have rolled over and RUT is usually a market leader.  I'd be cautious on the long side here.  GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold finished little changed as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on OK volume.  My GDX September calls are in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The day started out strong on the back of GOOG earnings but then drifted lower for much of the session.  There were no headlines out of Washington today.  We all know that won't last.  More earnings on the way and then the first look at second quarter GDP on Friday.  The VIX remains low so I'll be in a wait and see mode for now.  The atmosphere has a summer feel to it.  Not quite the doldrums but certainly a slow motion to things at the moment.  Europe and Asia rallied in last nights trading action.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow fell 13 points today in lackluster trading.  Volume was light.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues its sideways action.  The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ did have one day reversals to the upside.  So the overall market is acting better than the Dow.  Plenty of earnings due out this week to get things going one way or the other.  So we'll see.  The S&P did close above the 2800 level.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  No love for GE here.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2 and GDX shed 1/2 on good volume.  The gold shares fared worse than gold itself and that's bearish going forward.  The seasonal strength in gold hasn't surfaced yet.  My September GDX calls are now firmly in the red and I may just have to get rid if them even with over two months to go in this trade.  The fundamentals for gold remain poor here with the rise in US interest rates.  Although the gold shares are both short and medium term oversold it appears that they are simply staying that way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and I do think that we'll see higher prices for stocks this week.  My thinking now is that I'll wait and see if the S&P 500 can make it back up to 2850 and try the SPY puts there.  We've seen somewhat of a summer rally since the end of June.  Perhaps it can keep going to hit my price target for the puts.  We do remain short term overbought on the S&P.  There's still a potential positive RSI divergence on the daily gold chart.  But if the action of the gold shares today is any indication, this divergence will not pan out as planned.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week shapes up.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Pretty quiet as far as expirations go as the Dow lost 6 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  I'm thinking that the summation index is moving sideways before it heads lower.  But that's just a guess at this point.  The market remains both short and medium term overbought but that doesn't mean it can't stay that way.  Plenty of earnings due next week and we'll have to see what the reaction is to the numbers.  Some economic data due out next week capped off by the first look at 2nd quarter GDP on Friday.  The tone of the market has seemed to slow here in the middle of July.  GE dropped almost 2/3 on very heavy volume.  The earnings were OK but I guess they didn't like the talk from the CEO.  I don't have any trades in mind for GE.  Gold was up $7 on the futures as the US dollar took a hit today, possibly because Trump complained about the rise in US interest rates.  But the Trump effects on the markets are generally short lived because he changes his mind from one day to the other.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  The gold shares certainly did not react to Trump.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My GDX September call trade is showing a small loss.  I'm inclined to hold this trade for some time, since there's an extra week in the September option cycle.  I also would like to give a chance for the seasonal strengthening pattern to go into effect.  So I'll be holding on for now.  There is also a potential positive RSI divergence that just took place on the daily chart.  If that actually happens, this trade should turn out to be a winner.  RUT is stalling here but it may simply be a pause before it moves to new all time highs again.  A lot will be determined next week as the big tech stocks are due to report.  I'm still considering the SPY August puts.  Asia was up and Europe down in last nights trade.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to come up with some kind of idea as what to do next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some selling today as the Dow shed 134 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  The summation index is moving sideways.  RUT was higher today.  The market is trying to make up its mind on what to do here.  Still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  The S&P 500 remains above the 2800 level for now.  We're either forming a top here or pausing before an attempt at new all time highs for the S&P.  I am still looking at the SPY August puts.  No hurry to purchase though.  GE was basically flat but volume picked up.  Gold bounced around today and ended up losing $5 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX lost over 1/4.  Volume picked up going lower.  There's really no chart support here for gold and the gold shares.  My GDX September calls are now in the red.  Gold will have to turn around here soon or this trade will be dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX perked up a bit today and has plenty of room to move higher as it remains oversold.  That would seem to place a better chance that we're forming some type of top here.  Option expiration tomorrow so we'll see if there's any fireworks with that.  The market seems to be searching for direction in the past week and a half.  I'll try and remain patient for now but I think that the odds favor some kind of drop here versus another leg up rally.  I could be wrong and often am.  I think that I'll let tomorrow pass and take things from there.  Asia and Europe were lower in overnight trade.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

Yesterday was a rare missed day for the blog as I was called away from the market with a couple of hours left in the trading day and did not return until late at night.  We all know that the market waits for no one.  Yesterday the Dow gained 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We finished above the important 2800 level on the S&P 500.  Gold finished little changed and the dollar was a bit weaker.  More on todays price action a little later. 

We had a one day reversal back to the upside as the Dow gained 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high.  The VIX is back to the 12 level but I don't think it will go much lower.  But what do I know?  Maybe we are going to new all time highs on the S&P 500 as well.  The Fed chief spoke today and the market liked what it heard.  I'm still looking at the SPY August puts.  We remain overbought for the S&P both short and medium term.  GE was off about 1/4 on average volume.  Gold took a hit today with the futures down a dozen.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on better volume.  The gold shares acted much better than the price of gold and that is usually a positive.  But gold has broken its near term support here, so I can't really feel too bullish.  My open order for the GDX September calls was filled.  So the next trade is on.  Plenty of time for this trade to work out if the usual positive seasonal effect takes place.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  We finally had a decent close above the 2800 level for the S&P 500.  This occurred despite poor earnings from NFLX, which sent things lower at the open.  This can only be seen as a positive, as the market rallied on bad news.  Or it may be the positive expiration week bias in effect.  Whatever the reason or excuse, you cannot deny the price action.  Once again the only caveat is the low volume but that may be a summer byproduct.  I would like to get some SPY puts for next month but I suppose I'll wait and see if we make it back to the all time highs first.  At this point we're overbought and staying that way.  The gold shares are just the opposite, oversold both short and medium term.  Asia was lower and Europe rose last night.  We'll see if we get any upside follow through tomorrow.   

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow rose 44 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index should turn around today but it may be just sideways for now.  Or not.  RUT was lower and it has been the leader so far this year.  The TRAN took a hit and sits right on its 200 day moving average.  The major stock indices are overbought and the VIX is oversold and that is a recipe for a decline of some sort in the near term.  I could be wrong.  It is options expiration week though and the positive bias may have an effect on prices.  I am looking at the SPY August puts.  GE was flat and volume was light.  Gold was slightly lower as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  I adjusted down my open order for the GDX September calls just a touch.  This order is close to being filled and I may just go ahead and have it filled tomorrow.  However if the overall market rolls over here, I would expect the gold shares to go with it and that would turn this idea into a losing trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has been hanging around the 2800 level for 3 days and can't seem to make up its mind what it wants to do here.  I am more of a believer in the puts here than the calls despite options expiration.  But I am not going to attempt a trade with 4 days left in the July option cycle for the July SPY options.  The risk is  not worth it in my humble opinion.  Plus the volume has been pretty weak lately and that may be the summer doldrums effect taking place.  That would mean the market may just meander this week.  So for now I'll keep an eye on GDX and the SPY August put prices.  Europe and Asia were weaker overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the trading overnight.

A positive Friday the 13th for the Dow as it gained 94 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving up but not with conviction.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The S&P 500 closed just above 2800.  It seems as though we're at the moment of truth for the S&P and whether it will get through 2800.  The volume on the rise has been pretty light and it will have to pick up to make me a believer in the rally going through 2800.  Option expiration week is upon us and that is usually a plus for the bulls.  We remain short term overbought.  GE was off a dime on average volume.  Gold dropped $5 and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume.  I adjusted down my buy price for the GDX September calls again.  The bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly candlestick chart says next week should see some downside.  Gold is oversold on a daily and weekly basis.  But it needs to hold the 1235 to 1240 level or I don't know how far it could drop.  I'm still willing to attempt the GDX trade here based on the seasonal factor but there's no guarantee that it will work every year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're still at the mercy of the headlines but haven't had any news of late to affect the stock market.  Earnings are coming out and they're expected to be good.  I'm now looking at the SPY August puts.  If my thesis that the rally from 2009 is over, we shouldn't hit new all time highs in the S&P 500 going forward.  RUT is generally a leader and it has begun to stall here.  There is also a potential negative RSI divergence on its weekly chart.  The VIX got below 12 today and is oversold.  Hopefully going out to August will give this idea some time to work.  I'll have to double check everything over the weekend.  Light volume remains a concern.  Asia and Europe showed gains overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Yesterdays decline appears to be a one day wonder as the Dow climbed 224 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is back to trending up.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high today and that bodes well for the bulls going forward.  The summer rally lives on.  Perhaps we'll get the usual positive bias during expiration week and a run up into next Friday.  The trade tariffs were only good for a day of decline.  Earnings are the focus now and we'll get some from the banking sector tomorrow.  Stocks remain overbought on a short term technical basis.  The S&P 500 is right at the important 2800 level.  Perhaps we'll get through tomorrow.  GE was flat on light volume.  Gold was up a little and so was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on lighter volume.  I adjusted down my GDX September call order.  I do think that maybe next week will be the time to make this purchase.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Buyers showed up today and that is encouraging from the long side.  The volume lately has been pretty weak and that is a concern.  It may just be the summer factor and that wouldn't be a problem.  But if it isn't because of summer then we have the issue of a light volume rally.  Those can never be trusted.  So we'll see how it goes going forward.  I'm still in the rally from 2009 is over camp.  Europe and Asia rebounded last night too.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Tariffs returned to the news and subsequently the Dow dropped.  The most watched index shed 219 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index should start to stall here and turn sideways if not lower if stocks keep dropping.  That will be the question going forward.  Was today just a one day event or have we begun to roll over once again?  The S&P 500 turned away just shy of the 2800 level.  That is a key to watch to see if we can break that to the upside.  The small stocks may be putting in short term double tops here as well.  So even though it's summer, we are at an important juncture for the market in my mind.  The VIX is still below the 15 level but we're bouncing off of oversold readings on the short term indicators.  I'll be keeping a close eye on things as they develop going forward.  GE was off around 20 cents on light volume.  GE may have a short term double top on the daily chart as well.  Gold was lower as commodities dropped hard today, most likely tariff related.  The precious metal futures dipped over a dozen as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX fell almost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  I adjusted my open order for the GDX September calls lower.  I may be early on this trade because todays price action was pretty bearish.  If it holds for the week, the weekly candlestick chart for GDX will have a bearish engulfing pattern.  That implies even lower prices to come.  The short term technical indicators have all rolled over here.  So I may adjust the order again overnight depending on what gold does before the US open tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or enough.  I think that we'll know soon enough if the summer rally is really here or that prices remain in a trading range.  I haven't given up on the idea that the rally from 2009 is over.  That is my main premise and I am looking for a substantial drop in stocks in the months ahead.  I may even begin looking at the SPY August puts.  Unfortunately we are back to the headline risk environment and that is unpredictable.  It makes the trading harder than usual and it's a challenge to begin with.  Today could have been worse for stocks so we'll have to see where we go from here.  Europe and Asia had sell offs as well.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines tonight and see where things go tomorrow. 

The beat goes on as the Dow rose 143 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The advance got narrower today with the Dow leading the way.  I did think about getting some SPY July puts today because this seems like a good spot to try them but I did not place an order.  The small stocks were laggards and the RUT was negative.  So perhaps we will see some double tops here in the smaller stock indices.  Hasn't happened yet.  The VIX is now oversold so we may see some selling in stocks tomorrow.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume today.  Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU and GDX had minor fractional gains on light volume.  I did place an order for the GDX September calls today.  We'll need to see some weakness in the gold shares for this to be filled.  I'm not exactly sure that this is the right idea but I'm willing to take the chance here.  It appears that I may not be alone as selling in the gold shares today was met with buying.  One caveat is that the US dollar is oversold and due for at least a bounce in the near term.  So we'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 is getting ever so close to the resistance of 2800.  That would be the logical place to attempt something on the short side.  Perhaps I'll give it a shot if and when it gets there.  The S&P is getting short term overbought but as we've seen before it can stay that way during rallies.  It does seem as though we are right now in the traditional summer rally.  So like any trade, nothing is for sure and the risk is out there.  Inflation data in the next couple of sessions and perhaps they will be market movers.  The short term technical indicators for gold are about mid-range here, so it could go either way in the near term.  I'll be keeping an eye on it.  The gold share indices are more overbought though.  I'm relying on the seasonal strength for gold to kick in at some point for the GDX call idea.  Europe and Asia were higher again overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The rally is on as the Dow soared 320 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Trade tariff fears have moved to the sidelines as buyers have emerged.  The volume remains light but the VIX is well below  the important 15 level.  It stands at 12 and change for now.  Perhaps a trade for the SPY July puts will set up in the coming days.  However the short term technical indicators are not completely overbought just yet.  So for now it's a watch and wait period for me.  GE was up a dime on what passes for average volume now.  Gold and the US dollar were both slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  They did have a one day reversal to the downside though as they both opened higher and closed lower.  Perhaps we'll get a chance to purchase the GDX September calls in the coming days.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some of the small cap indices are knocking on the door of new all time highs.  The S&P 500 is getting close to the resistance at 2800.  What happens there will be the key as to whether we attempt a run at the all time highs in the S&P.  I'm still in the camp that the rally that began in 2009 is over.  So we'll have to see what happens in the coming days.  Earnings season is back upon us and the earnings have been pretty good lately.  We'll have to see if they're enough to lead the market to new all time highs.  We'll get inflation data this week as well.  For now we'll wait and see if the small caps are making double tops or not.  We should know the answers soon.  But it does feel like a summer rally is in progress and higher prices are in the cards.  Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week as well.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.     

Higher to close out the week as the Dow gained 99 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were once again shy of 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The jobs report came in about where expected and the market rose from the first hour on.  The small stocks led the way and that's a positive.  The volume is light but we may simply chalk that up to the holiday week but it is something to keep an eye on.  The VIX closed below 14 and that is probably more important than the volume.  The summer rally is on.  GE gained 3/8 on light volume.  Gold lost a couple bucks and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume.  I'm still looking at the GDX September calls on a pullback.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that the bulk of the major US stock indices have found support at their 50 day moving averages and are now poised for near term gains.  The short term technical indicators are rising with room to go before reaching overbought.  I don't think that we're going to new all time highs for the S&P 500 but I could be wrong.  I do think we are in the traditional summer rally though.  2800 will be the key level to watch for the S&P if and when we get there.  If the volume remains light on the way up, it may be the place to try the puts.  If volume picks up and breaks through that level then perhaps the all time highs will be challenged.  We'll see how it goes as the days progress.  Gold had a bounce this week and we'll see what it does from here.  I'm in the bullish camp here for a seasonal push higher.  Whether or not I can trade it will depend on the price action from here.  Asia and Europe were higher in last nights trade.  Still two weeks to go in the July option cycle.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A rally today ahead of tomorrows jobs numbers as the Dow climbed 181 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to the upside.  Todays price action seems to say there will be a positive market resolution to tomorrows employment report.  We'll see.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices have now turned back up with room to roam higher.  The VIX closed just below 15 so tomorrow will be a key.  If we drop below 15 on the VIX and stay there then the summer rally is on.  If not it will more of sideways to down.  To me it looks like the market is poised to go higher.  GE was up a few cents on lighter volume.  It did finish well above its lows for the session.  Gold was flat on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on a bit better than average volume.  Getting overbought for the short term here but there's room on the indicators to go higher.  My hope is that I haven't missed the longer term gold share call trade here.  I'm going to wait and see if we drop back a little here before placing an order.  I'm considering the GDX September calls but the option premiums have already moved up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The volume is lighter this week as many players are off to the beaches.  However the market goes on regardless of vacation plans.  My thinking now is that we are going to move higher.  The fact that we were able to completely turn around the negative action of Tuesday cannot be ignored.  The market goes where it wants to.  I'm hoping for some weakness in the gold shares because it looks like the seasonal strength for that group has begun.  I do not want to chase it and I may be wrong about it as well.  But the volume and price action in the past week seems to be saying it's time to get on board.  We should get some movement in gold and the US dollar off of the jobs report.  I'll be up early in the morning to take a look at that.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll finish out the shortened trading week tomorrow.  All eyes will be on the employment numbers.

A one day reversal back to the downside today as the Dow dropped 132 points in a holiday shortened session.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive though.  Not sure what that means but it should turn the summation index sideways.  The usual positive market activity around July the 4th did not take place today.  The market activity remains sloppy.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold.  The VIX got below the 15 level and abruptly turned back up.  We may be back in that range again for the VIX where 15 is the bottom.  If so expect more volatility going forward and lower prices.  That seems to be where we are headed.  GE was flat and the volume light.  Gold found buyers today as the futures rose a dozen.  $1240 has held for now.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX was up 3/8.  Volume was good for a shortened session.  We saw gold drop yesterday but the gold shares didn't react.  Today we saw both gold and the gold shares move up.  We also saw the gold shares run up two days ago when gold barely moved.  What it looks like to me is that money is starting to come into the gold shares.  The seasonality strength time period for gold is coming up.  I am now pretty sure that the GDX September calls will be my next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I don't want to make a lot of the price action today but it is concerning.  With the jobs report on Friday, this could be a week that you need to pay more attention than usual for a holiday week.  We'll have to see how the foreign markets do over the next couple of sessions before Thursdays open.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll enjoy the 4th of July holiday tomorrow and be back here on Thursday.   

A one day reversal to the upside to start the month as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  It gained 35 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that is a positive.  The positive holiday bias looks like it will work this year.  Could this be the beginning of a summer rally?  I'm not exactly sure about that but it's possible.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment but there is plenty of time left in the July option cycle.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Gold dropped over a dozen on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  I am looking at the September gold share calls as the next trade.  The seasonality sets up for this trade in the time frame form now until then.  If the gold shares can get back down to all the way oversold in the next couple of weeks, I will attempt this idea.  This may or may not happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market did manage to come back today but there really wasn't any catalyst for the reversal.  Foreign markets got slammed and that helped lead the US lower early on.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are still oversold but they have turned back up.  RUT held its 50 day moving average and the TRAN had a good day.  So all in all I would say that in the short term we should move higher this week.  Volume will most likely be lighter than usual due to the holiday.  We'll deal with the employment report on Friday.  Europe and Asia were sold off overnight.  We'll have a holiday shortened session tomorrow in the US.  I'd expect to continue to drift upwards.  We'll see.