Monday, July 02, 2018
A one day reversal to the upside to start the month as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. It gained 35 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that is a positive. The positive holiday bias looks like it will work this year. Could this be the beginning of a summer rally? I'm not exactly sure about that but it's possible. I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment but there is plenty of time left in the July option cycle. GE was off 1/4 on average volume. Gold dropped over a dozen on the futures as the US dollar bounced back. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume. I am looking at the September gold share calls as the next trade. The seasonality sets up for this trade in the time frame form now until then. If the gold shares can get back down to all the way oversold in the next couple of weeks, I will attempt this idea. This may or may not happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The market did manage to come back today but there really wasn't any catalyst for the reversal. Foreign markets got slammed and that helped lead the US lower early on. The short term technical indicators for the major averages are still oversold but they have turned back up. RUT held its 50 day moving average and the TRAN had a good day. So all in all I would say that in the short term we should move higher this week. Volume will most likely be lighter than usual due to the holiday. We'll deal with the employment report on Friday. Europe and Asia were sold off overnight. We'll have a holiday shortened session tomorrow in the US. I'd expect to continue to drift upwards. We'll see.
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