Friday, July 06, 2018
Higher to close out the week as the Dow gained 99 points on light volume. The advance/declines were once again shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading higher. The jobs report came in about where expected and the market rose from the first hour on. The small stocks led the way and that's a positive. The volume is light but we may simply chalk that up to the holiday week but it is something to keep an eye on. The VIX closed below 14 and that is probably more important than the volume. The summer rally is on. GE gained 3/8 on light volume. Gold lost a couple bucks and the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume. I'm still looking at the GDX September calls on a pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It appears that the bulk of the major US stock indices have found support at their 50 day moving averages and are now poised for near term gains. The short term technical indicators are rising with room to go before reaching overbought. I don't think that we're going to new all time highs for the S&P 500 but I could be wrong. I do think we are in the traditional summer rally though. 2800 will be the key level to watch for the S&P if and when we get there. If the volume remains light on the way up, it may be the place to try the puts. If volume picks up and breaks through that level then perhaps the all time highs will be challenged. We'll see how it goes as the days progress. Gold had a bounce this week and we'll see what it does from here. I'm in the bullish camp here for a seasonal push higher. Whether or not I can trade it will depend on the price action from here. Asia and Europe were higher in last nights trade. Still two weeks to go in the July option cycle. I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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